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What to Expect in Iraq after the December 15 Elections (December 14, 2005)
According to Power and Interest News Report, the December 15 parliamentary elections will do little to unify Iraq. As a minority, Sunnis will probably not be able to ensure a strong, centralized state, despite high voter turnout. Kurds, though highly unified, represent an even smaller segment and largely seek to consolidate their autonomy. The United Iraqi Alliance, a religious Shiite coalition that holds a majority in Iraq's transitional government, will probably retain many of its seats, though it suffers from internal fractions and dwindling public support in response to its perceived failures. Given Iraq's vague and controversial constitution, it is unlikely that a new government will be able to effectively govern Iraq.
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/election/2005/1214after.htm