Tucker Carylson predicts end of Dean candidacy in two to four weeks

[Samantha]

This morning on The Chris Matthews' Show, in the portion where Matthews asks his panel to tell him something he does not know, Tucker Carylson provocatively predicted: The Dean candidacy will be taken down in two to four weeks by John Kerry. Kerry will use the past positions of Dean on Medicare (and Social Security) to end the Dean run.

Before I get flamed, let me say this. I am posting this for the discussion of Dean and Kerry supporters. I am not in either camp. In absolute candor, however, I must admit, I have stated many times I am adverse to Kerry; I have no problem with Dean.

Here are my questions:

Is this the literal truth or a statement designed to provoke the Dean camp?

If you believe the answer is yes, how would Tucker Carylson gain access to this information?

If you believe the answer is no, the threat has no basis in fact, why would Tucker Carylson, a Republican, make the statement?

If you believe Kerry will make an attempt to take out Dean before the Iowa primary on these two issues, how should Dean counterattack? Better yet, how will he defend himself while simultaneously counterattacking?

If there is enough interest in discussing this issue, I have a theory I will post after I read a few initial reactions. I am very interested in knowing what DU'ers think from a strategy standpoint. It is the strategy portion of the political game I love the most, so I am hoping several of you will want to play.

I read over the first couple pages of "The Latest" to see if this was previously posted. I did not see it. If it's already out there, I apologize. If it's not, let's initiate our own version of DU political hardball.

Is the Clark camping pitting Kerry against Dean hoping they will wound each other seriously enough that Clark can suddenly forge ahead of both? If not Clark, Gephardt?

Matthews said when Carylson remarked Kerry would take Dean out in two to four weeks, like Gore did to Bradley in 2000? Yes, said Carylson.

What's going on between Dean and Kerry and if you were a strategist in either camp, what would you be thinking right now? And why did Tucker Carylson make these statements this morning? What's in it for him?

[AWD]

1. I wonder...

....if he'll eat his shoes if he's wrong.

Ucker's predictions are always pure crap, and the last time he tried one, we let him off lightly. Not this time.

....and besides, how would Kerry's camp take down Dean's camp? Kerry doesn't DO anything until 3 or 4 days after Dean does it.

[Jack Rabbit]

5. Exactly

Who cares what TC says about the Democratic contest?

What's the presidential campaign equivalent of writing a book that sells a million copies?

[Samantha]

10. It was a provocative political statement designed to provoke anxiety

in the Dean camp.

Why was it made?

[Bucky]

77. Tucker's job

Tucker is there to make conservatives look stupid. Like they need the help. He's such a cartoon, I have to wonder if he's really a conservative at all or just plays one on TV--keeping us distracted from the really scary Cons like Rush and Hannity and the ever-toxic Imus.

Carlson's more like a right-wing version of Alan Colmes, a beta-male patsy who lives to be a punching bag for his "opponents" and has no real convictions of his own as long as the paychecks keep rolling in.

[realFedUp]

6. He should have learned his lesson concerning his reliablity...

at least we have.

[alphafemale]

9. Exactly. No more letting the punks off easy with gourmet cake. ..

...when they should be munching leather steeped in road grime and foot-sweat.

Tucker is no-nothing shrill whose mouth is always engaged before his brains.

[DrFunkenstein]

15. Like Calling For Rumsfeld's Resignation?

Get a grip.

[DemBones DemBones]

34. Indeed! It's a good thing some people pay attention to more

than spin.

[Classical_Liberal]

2. Gephardt has already been pounding that drum

so I don't know how Kerry could do any better?

[markus]

90. Because maybe the fix is in with the "Liberal Media"

Carlson may know that a big, front page analysis of the issue is coming somewhere. If it were the Post or Times (NY, LA, etc.) that would be interesting.

If its the Moonie Times and it's on the Daily Fax to AM Blowhards, then that might be it as well.

[Cat Atomic]

3. Honestly? I think Tucker Carlson is just a media clown and he

needs attention if he wants to stay in the public eye. In two weeks, everyone will be saying what a boneheaded prediction Tucker made, but they *will* be talking about Tucker. That's all that matters if you're in the pundit game.

He still has a couple of shoes to eat, I believe.

[soupkitchen]

4. Is it possible for a person to hang himself with a bowtie?

[Samantha]

18. Good response, you choose sarcasm

so if you are a Dean strategist, is that how you will choose to address the remark? Or will you simply ignore it? Is it literally true there is nothing in the Dean medicare or social security closets which can be revealed that thus far has not (I have read the previous accusations of his standing with Newt, so I am thinking the inference is there is some new bomb to drop). If you are a Dean supporter do you zealously research the Dean closet or do you walk away from the prediction shrugging it off?

What could be so explosive the revelation of which would suddenly end Dean's campaign in two to four weeks? Anything?

[soupkitchen]

25. If I was Dean, I'd just say, "Anybody who pays attention to Carlson Tucker

is not voting for me anyhow."

[cindyw]

57. LOL

Very true.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

80. Dean can do no wrong- he's the new messiah and Kerry is a liar

really, I read it on blogforamerica so I know this is true. <end sarcasm>

[Justice]

7. Look at the Messenger....

It is Tucker Carlson for heaven sakes.

I am scratching my head at this: "Is the Clark camping pitting Kerry against Dean hoping they will wound each other seriously enough that Clark can suddenly forge ahead of both? If not Clark, Gephardt?"

Tucker is a REPUBLICAN. I guess I would say maybe he is acting on behalf of republicans, not Clark or Gephardt - strange that you would suggest that instead. Maybe the republicans trying to generate more activity by the democratic candidates against each other and less activity by them collectively against Bush.

Perhaps this comment was said to create more friction by Kerry against Dean, Dean against Kerry, Clark against Dean and Kerry, turn the democrats onto themselves etc etc etc?

[Samantha]

24. Yes, I noted Tucker is a Republican in my post

but I did not suggest answers, just possibilities. I ask people contributing responses to suggest possible answers to my questions. You came up with a good one -- perhaps Tucker is stirring the pot to divide the Dems. Rove has threatened to divide the Dems in 2004, so if that is the answer, Tucker is simply playing Rove's game.

Are you sure that's the answer? Are you sure this info wasn't leaked to Tucker by the Kerry camp? Kerry has been quoted as saying he can take Dean out any time he chooses. Is he making good on that statement? Or trying?

[DrFunkenstein]

26. That Quote Was Disproven A Long Time Ago

Kerry never said he could take down Dean anytime he chooses. That was a misleading thread title that was corrected in P&C.

The Kerry camp leaking info to Tucker is BS - and a cheap shot. Judy Woodruff had to apologize for using the memo at the debates - a memo just like the ones Dean and the rest of the candidates put out.

Please don't repeat these unfounded rumors.

[Samantha]

33. I haven't been in the Politics Forum for months now

so I didn't read that thread.

Perhaps you can offer your opinion as to whether or not this too is an unfounded rumor:

Following the election 2000 Electoral College vote, John Kerry was asked if he had been requested by the Congressional Black Caucus to sign its petition challenging the slate of electors from Florida. Kerry replied, "No, I wasn't asked to sign the petition, but I wouldn't have signed it if I had been asked."

[aquart]

8. Oh, please, like he'd know.

Remember: a conservative's idea of liberal thinking is NEVER true.

[gratuitous]

11. Pretty Boy's record for prognostication isn't very good

Seems to me he still owes us a pair of Florsheims from his last "mortal lock." Despite his efforts in recent weeks to appear more "centrist," Tucker is a tool of the ruling elite and will say whatever he calculates will continue to "earn" him his overmarket salary. In a gratuitous benevolent dictatorship, Tucker Carlson would wear gaudy colors and a three-pointed hat with little balls on the ends of the points -- a jester, paid in rotten fruits and vegetables that the citizenry would throw at him.

[unfrigginreal]

12. It's just Tuckers attempt to reinvigorate the Kerry campaign...

Lord knows they need it.

[DivinBreuvage]

13. Some Other Tucker Carlson Predictions...

"It looks like major trouble for the 'Black Republican' liberals in the White House. Robert E. Lee's got the Federal Army pinned down at Gettysburg. I smell Confederate troops in Washington. And I for one say THANK GOD!"

"You have to look at how fast Army Group South has reached the Volga River. This time next week Stalingrad is going to be called Hitlergrad!"

"So Pilate toasted another Jewish radical. So what! Believe me, in a year you won't be able to find anybody who remembers this Jesus fellow."

"This bowtie is gonna make me look mature and sophisticated. The ladies will love it."

Françoise

[eileen_d]

16. lol - poor tucker

That bowtie prediction will NEVER come true.

[FubarFly]

20. LOL

Welcome to DU freedomfrog.

:toast:

Thanks for the chuckles. :-)

[Book Lover]

59. HA!! and welcome

to DU :-)

[Eloriel]

78. ROTFL, freedomfrog!

Welcome to DU!

Glad to have another Frenchie here.

Eloriel

[DivinBreuvage]

85. Merci bien, Eloriel :)

>Glad to have another Frenchie here.

After all, someone has to raise the tone. (just kiddin) :)

Françoise

[Vikingking66]

14. WTF?

He's been attacked by Kerry for the past few months, ditto Gephardt and Lieberman. All the sudden he's going to pull stakes?

He's sitting on top of the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire and he's got three times the cash of Kerry or Gephardt or Lieberman. I'd be thrilled to be in his position.

This is Carlson being stupid.

[cindyw]

58. I'm with you in all but the comment on 3 times the cash

Dean cash on hand around 12 mil
Kerry cash on hand close to 8 mil

[madfloridian]

17. There's not much about Dean's Med/SS stance that hasn't been outed.

Over and over and over and over on national debates by Kerry and Gephardt.

Every word, every nuance has been outed and reouted, and then outed again.

Give me a break.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

21. No doubt it will hurt him in the long run

but it's not going to 'take down' his candidacy, certainly not in the next 3-4 weeks.

[madfloridian]

23. No more than what the other candidates are doing on the issue now.

Follow the votes on the issue now. My two Democratic senators, one a former candidate, believe in doing just what the Republicans want.
I have talked to the other candidates' offices as well. Their stances on the issue are very much like the GOP....the word modernize is the same as privatize. Look at their stances for the words modernize or modernization. Same song, different verse.

[DrFunkenstein]

28. You Are Trying To Conflate '95 and '97

Democrats supported the '97 proposal to "modernize." Dean jumped ship - in a big way - in '95. Dean may argue that this doesn't affect what he will do in the future. I'm not sure I would agree. He has a long history of balancing the state budget by cutting into social programs and infrastructure. That seems a crucial point of contention for Dean's candidacy.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

19. I'm no Dean fan but TC is a total idiot.

[DrFunkenstein]

22. First Off, Tucker Is A Prick

But let's look at the nature of Iowa. It is not a primary. People vote for who they want and then realign themselves until a winner is picked. Dean people are pretty zealous, so they won't be moving anywhere else soon.

But there is a lot of room for movement within the "cockroach" section (as Dean puts it) of the candidates. Do you think the Lieberman and Gephardt people are going to Dean? Not very likely. I would say Clark has a better shot, but so far he has picked up almost no traction there. That remains to be seen.

So as I see it, there will be a big split between the Dean campaign and the campaigns he's stepped on to get where he is. That may work in Gephardt's favor or it may work in Kerry's favor. I'm banking on Kerry, who seems a better match against Bush - but we'll just have to see.

[Kira]

27. Tucker is lying

and he knows it. They are scared of Dean and are trying to make people second guess their support for him.And it is not going to work. Dean raised @14.8 million dollars in the last quarter. More than any other Democrat ever. Kerry raised @6-7 million I think. It may have been lower I can't remember the exact figure. How is he going to derail him? Plus he is leading in New Hamshire and tied with Gephardt in Iowa. PLEASE Tucker thinks he is so much smarter than anyone else. (just like the Bush administration does. ) Go DEAN!

[Mz Pip]

29. Tucker likes

to stir up the pot. Maybe something good for the Repugs will float to the surface, maybe not but for him, it's worth a try.

As far as the way the Dem candidates are trashing each other, I think it's troubling. Kerry, Dean, Gebhardt and Lieberman have all lowered themseves a few notches IMHO with their attacts on each other and the other candidates. Clark hasn't done it yet, to his credit, but time will tell if he can stay above the fray.

So Tucker comes along and throws out a potential bit of bait for Kerry and Dean. Maybe one of them bites, knocking down the other a few more notches. Hopefully, they will both ignore the speculations of Tucker.

MzPip
:dem:

[Samantha]

35. Thank you for a thoughtful response

I think many people are chagrined over -- let's use your word -- the trashing of one Democratic candidate of another. But looking at it pragmatically, for the most part, the criticisms have actually centered around reversal of positions in key areas or literal statements made by one candidate another finds disturbing. I think taking strong criticism toughens the skin of the eventual nominee, whomever that might be, to withstand the sting of the javelins Rove will be throwing in the literal Presidential race. Lieberman has run in a national campaign before, but Kerry hasn't, Dean hasn't, Clark hasn't, so for some, it's good conditioning.

So far, though, I haven't heard anything as crass as the dirt that was dished by Bush* towards McCain. All of the election experts have warned that the 2004 race will be even dirtier than 2000. We all have to be prepared for that, but most of all, the person running against Bush* must be the best prepared.

[DrFunkenstein]

53. Kerry's Race Against Bill Weld Was Better Experience

The 1996 Senate campaign between John Kerry and William Weld was the rarest of events in latter-day American politics: a civil, closely contested, intelligent, and wildly entertaining brawl. "Both candidates were incredibly popular," the Kerry consultant John Marttila said. "Both had sixty-per-cent favorable ratings, and negatives in the twenties. And they maintained their popularity throughout the race."

Both were Brahmins, but Weld, with a shock of strawberry hair and irony to burn, seemed an honorary Hibernian-once again, Kerry was faced with an opponent bound to be favored by the reportorial romantics at the Boston Globe. "We were both comers," recalls Weld, who had just been reelected governor, with seventy-one per cent of the vote. "We were both at the height of our powers. If I'd won that race, I was going to turn straight around and run for President in 2000. I think he was, too-although I guess he eventually decided that Gore had too big a head start."

The campaign began with a remarkable agreement to limit campaign spending, negotiated face to face by the two candidates in Kerry's Beacon Hill mansion. They also agreed to a series of eight debates, some of which would be Lincoln-Douglas style, with the two candidates questioning each other directly, without a mediator. Weld figured that his issues-crime, welfare reform, and tax cutting-and his charm would see him through, but mostly his charm. "John isn't really a cold person, but he does seem aloof," Weld said recently. "The truth is that he's courtly to the point of gentility. We were pummelling him through August, but his campaign turned on a dime when Bob Shrum was hired as his consultant. It went from flaccid to sharp in a week."

Kerry's aides insist that it was more than Shrum. They say that Kerry was distracted in Washington, that he didn't really focus on the campaign until the Senate recessed. "It wasn't a lack of focus," Kerry says. "It was a strategy. I figured people wouldn't really be paying attention until the fall debates."

The last four debates were fabulous political theatre-two very smart men having at each other. "John's at his best under pressure, when he's being seriously challenged," Paul Nace, an old Navy friend, says. "He gets really cool, very calm. He really is a warrior-he just loves it. I took one look at him as he was walking into Faneuil Hall for one of the last debates and I thought, Bill Weld has no idea what's about to hit him."

Weld-who calls the debates a "bloody draw"-says that Kerry successfully attached him to the national Republican Party. (Weld had said some embarrassingly positive things about Newt Gingrich two years earlier.) "The turning point came when he asked me if I'd vote to keep Jesse Helms as the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. That was a killer."

I asked Weld how he responded. "I ducked it, of course," he said, with a smile. "I mean, I hated Jesse Helms. But what could I do?"

Kerry won the election by eight percentage points. "John has always been underestimated politically," Marttila says. "But that race had the quality and intensity of a Presidential campaign, and he won. I don't see how they can underestimate him anymore, but they probably will."

From The New Yorker (sorry, dead link).

[Carolina]

47. Clark

has learned the most powerful lesson from Republicans: never speak ill of another of your own. Now that he is among us, he maintains that stance about his fellow Democratic canadidates. Hope he keeps it up. I have gone the gamut from supporting Kerry (in 2002 before his Iraq vote), to Edwards (also before Iraq), to Dean (still like him) and now Clark (have some doubts but think he's a WINNER). TC's remarks are meant to stir up intra-party conflict; divide and conquer; deflect from Bush. Kerry is sinking among Dems. Edwards is tredding water. Lieberman is a loser. And hell, y'all, Gephardt couldn't even maintain his leadership position among House Democrats, so he's a goner even if he is victorious in Iowa. My guess, for what it's worth, is that our winning ticket is some combination of Clark and Dean. Repugs, like Sucker Carlson, are scared of them both and try to minimize: their popularity, their campaigns and most importantly, the threat they both pose to the Squatter.

Bottom line: Tucker's a worthless piece of shit. Ditto, his brain farts.

[abelenkpe]

30. divide and conquer...

that's the only motivation for a conservative personality to make such a statement. The only way Bush can win is for Democrats to work themselves up into such heated arguments over their percieved candidates of choice that many won't turn out to vote during the next presidential election. Personally I would vote for a cardboard box if it was labeled 'democrat' and running against Bush. While I think it is important to examine the candidates carefully and choose one who will serve the country well, I think it is too early to get very attached to any of the Democratic hopefuls. There are several who would be better than Bush. I hope we can be wise enough to stay focused on our goal of voting Bush and his PNAC buddies out of office before they send our nation down a road filled with four more years of deception and war.

[Samantha]

31. Can we take another look at these four questions?

Is this the literal truth or a statement designed to provoke the Dean camp?

If you believe the answer is yes, how would Tucker Carylson gain access to this information?

If you believe the answer is no, the threat has no basis in fact, why would Tucker Carylson, a Republican, make the statement?

If you believe Kerry will make an attempt to take out Dean before the Iowa primary on these two issues, how should Dean counterattack? Better yet, how will he defend himself while simultaneously counterattacking?

*************

To a certain extent, many responses have dealt with the second question. Tucker is drawing attention to himself because that it is nature as a political pundit -- to keep himself in the limelight, so some have suggested.

What about the other questions?

Remember, Novak recently allowed himself to be used to leak information someone wanted out there. As a Novak-in-training, would not Tucker do the same? If he is leaking, at whose behest? And if you are a Dean strategist, do you ignore it?

Many have predicted the Democratic heat will boil down to a two-man heat between Dean and Clark. From the beginning, ardent Kerry supporters have told us here at DU to get used to the idea he WOULD be the nominee? What's going on? Doesn't Kerry have to knock off at least one of the primary contenders if the race does narrow to a two-candidate contest to remain in the running? Does Dean have any explosive ammo to fire back at Kerry to knock him out of the race?

[wrkclskid]

38. I will answer strategically

Or sort of...I by the way remain undecided in this race

First off, Dean's record on such issues as Medicare and SS is spotty, and it does take away from his straight talk message. Secondly Iowa doesn;t have primaries, it has caucuses, which means the voters are often more entrenched within the party. Also, Iowa has the second most most senior citizens of all the states and the most over 85. Thus if anyone could dig up anything definitivly negative about Dean's record on this then it would be a huge blow to his chances in Iowa. This is partyl hurt by some of Dean's supporters (not all of them) who are as Dr. Funk pointed out, a bit zealous and as I may obsere, a bit intellectually arrogant. This will not help in a caucus system in whihc u have to negotiate, confront and cajole others to your side.
This beiing said, Kerry may be bakning on several things. First of all, he may view Clark as simply a "flash in the pan," who will soon fizzle. This may be true, may not, but I don;t think it is implausible. Secondly, I would not be surprised that if Kerry attempts this line of attack, he expects that if it works Gep will win Iowa, and Kerry would then hope to gain second having eliminated Dean from contention. Kerry then may think that having places on top of Dean in Iowa will gie him momentum in the important NH primary. Kerry may also be basing his decision on a recent poll that came out among likely dem primary oters that siad 55% would prefer a candidate who voted for the war but was critical of Bush oppsoed to 38% who want a candidate who was against the war from the start. Keryy knows that more moderate, some pro-war Dems are beggining to pay attention and that one thing that get's them excited is Medicare and SS. Kerry also relaizes the improtance of the senior vote to the dems, especially in Iowa, with it's large amount of seniors and it's rural areas where those programs are indispensable. So I don't beleive it to be a bad strategy, as long as he has something good on Dean.

As far as Tucker knowing it, who knows? Info goes back and forth in DC, it is very possible that Tucker didn't here this from anybody invovled with Kerry but second or third hand. Tucker screwed up the Hillary thing and his views are awful, but he is known to be an insider with good info, so I don't think he is pulling this out of his ass, though it may be still be simply a beltway rumor. Pundits make dumbass predictions all the time, so no one will notice if this is pure bunk. Tucker is not trying to be Novak, they hate each other. Novak sais that Tucker is "not a real Republican" (I have no idea why.) As far as why Tucker released it, maybe to stir the pot, maybe to be the first to tell it (one's rep in DC increases with how much info they are percieved to have) or maybe because he is scared of either Dean or Kerry and wants to try and hurt one, or both of their campaogns.
Sorry if this went off on a tangent but I too love strategy and figured u deserved at least one answer that was better than "Tucker is a big liar and a meanie." :-)

[Samantha]

49. Excellent, comprehensive analysis

I agree with every point. I just cannot figure out what Kerry might have that hasn't already been discussed with regard to Social Security and Medicare. The only thing I can imagine is a video clip where Dean makes outright statements contrary to the responses he has given to the recent charges that he supported raising the retirement age to 68 and he did in fact threaten to cut off prescription drugs for seniors, not as a strategy to prompt the legislature to increase certain funding, but as a realistic maneuver he intended to pursue if he did not get his way. It would have to be something dramatic.

Still, it's hard to imagine Kerry having something so explosive he could blow Dean's campaign right out of the water suddenly, permanently. So do you suppose Dean is accumulating ammo on Kerry so he can retire fire so he can be on the offensive instead of the defensive?

What about digging out the video clip of Kerry making his infamous statement about not being asked to sign the petition of the Congressional Black Caucus to reject the slate of voters from Florida shortly after the Electoral College vote of 2000 (see above thread). Dean has made it clear he's not adverse to using the 2000 election as a minor issue in this campaign, i.e., this time, the candidate who gets the most votes will win. Kerry's statement at that time alienated many African-Americans, and some say, that statement along with a like attitude of other prominent Democrats, gave rise to the Sharpton candidacy. That statement of Kerry's was made a lot more recently and on a issue just as volatile, if not more, than social security and Medicare. He refused to speak out on behalf of Gore because he was planning a run himself in 2004, and obviously would have a much easier run against Bush* than an incumbent Gore. So the question is, if you were a Dean strategist, would you be digging out this clip for use. Resurrecting this statement over that hot-button issue would definitely cripple Kerry with the African-American voters in South Carolina. If not this strategy, what would you be contemplating?

[IndianaGreen]

32. At least Kerry is a Democrat of long standing

with long liberal credentials, and one very stupid vote on Iraq. There has never been any allegations of war crimes or human rights violations about Kerry's military service.

On the other hand, who cares what some idiot that wears a bow tie, like George Will, has to say about the Democratic primaries?

[DemBones DemBones]

36. Given a choice between Clark, Dean, and Kerry, I would go for

Kerry because of his long history as a liberal Democrat. I'm not in the mood for an Eisenhower or an Eisenhower Republican. Social Security and Medicare are too important to put at risk. It's encouraging to read (NYTimes today) that older voters are increasingly disenchanted with Bush* and of course their problem with him is fear that he's going to screw up those programs.

Kucinich is still best on Social Security and Medicare because he'd roll back the retirement age to 65 and open up Medicare for everyone, adding prescription benefits as well.

[JohnKleeb]

41. Thats my belief too, Kerry of those 3

[Samantha]

40. I for one am not impacted by Tucker's opinions or preferences

so I think you are correct, there are many Dems like me. I just find it curious he would make such a provocative remark and wonder why. I think he was allowing himself to be used, a la Novak, and I wonder if so, by whom?

Just as a side note, there was ONE remark Tucker Carylson made many years ago that caught my attention. As a reporter for Talk Magazine while Bush* was governor of Texas, Tucker interviewed Bush* just prior to Carla Faye Tucker's execution. "What would Carla Faye Tucker say to you if she were allowed to speak to you directly?" he asked Bush.* "Please don't kill me," Bush* responded, mocking her just prior to her death.

You have probably read about this interview. What didn't get the national play was Tucker Carlyson's reaction to the Bush* smirk as he mocked the condemned woman. He could not get over the fact that this man who held the life and death decision over her destiny chose to mock her and smirk while doing so to a reporter of a well-known magazine. He was aghast. Yet the man today, defends Bush* zealously because it's his job to do so.

So when he made his statement today, was he just doing his job or performing a favor for a political player?

[janekat]

83. Carlson likes to stir up the pot - BUT I think he does have some info.

that hasn't come out yet. I watched the show and it did appear that he "knew" something specific that was going to come out.

If I had to bet on whether he's right or not about Dean, however, I wouldn't. Carlson just loves attention - and likes to be talked about. He has a habit of "speaking of the cuff" and is rather impetuous.

[Carolina]

54. Kerry cannot win the red states.

I live in a stupid red state composed of many of Michael Moore's "stupid white men." Kerry does not resonate with these folks at all! The Rove-Bush machine will paint a long time liberal from the NE (Massachusetts, especially) as evil personified. That's what they're saving that HUGE war chest for: NEGATIVE ADS as far as the eye can see. I daresay they'll do the same to Dean (Vermont will become an extension of Massachusetts). I was a Kerry supporter (in fact a Kerry-Edwards ticket was a winning one in my eyes) during the period leading up to the 2002 midterms. The duo tag-teamed South Carolina in 2002 and awed many of us ... until both of them voted for the Iraq war resolution. Kerry, in particular, ignored his constituents' calls and emails and voted 'aye.' When I begged him not to go along with the administration on Iraq during my handshake moment at SC DemFest, he told me to my face: Saddam Hussein is a serious threat. He said this, mind you, after talking about Bush's failure to get Osama in his prepared remarks to the assembled.

He's been sinking ever since despite his long term record and credentials. He will lose New Hampshire (Dean), SC (Edwards, Gephardt or Clark), and Iowa (Gephardt). He knows it. That is why the racheting up of attacks against Dean and Clark. The purpose of Tucker's comments may be to generate support for a flagging campaign because Repugs would love for Kerry to be the nominee: the elite, establishment New England liberal versus the affable homeboy terror fighter. (Sarcasm meter on HIGH)

Seriously folks, we need a winner and Kerry ain't it!

[Samantha]

75. Seriously, I agree!

eom

[NewYorkerfromMass]

81. Kerry doesn't need the red states

and when he wins Ohio (which he will) he's 44.

[SayitAintSo]

37. TC has made other simularly provocative remarks...

Take Sharpton for instance. I have heard TC make many very what I would consider racially motivated, condescending remarks about Sharpton, his prospects, intentions etc. I have also seen Sharpton not take any sh_t off TC when he gets the chance :) TC is using a time tested divide and conquer approach. Nothing he says can be taken seriously in my opinion. He's just a RW blow hard.

[quaker bill]

39. There is no actual news here.

Kerry and Gep have been working Dean over on this "issue" for weeks.

Carlson also predicted that Hillary's book would never sell 1 million copies. No doubt, we should heavily invest, in Carlson's predictions.

Dean's campaign is more than a series of "issues" that can be easily dissected.

I like Dean because every time someone attacks him, he just gets stronger. I would encourage Kerry, Gep, Lieberman, and whoever to just keep it up.

It is only a good conditioning workout for the general election.

If Dean's campaign is seriously damaged by attacks from any of these weak kneed pro-war voting apologists, then Dean is hardly up to the task of taking on the Rove machine next year and should lose.

Dean's comments suggests that he knows this, which is why I am fairly sure, try as they might, they will have no impact.

[poskonig]

42. I think Tucker has a point.

His final analysis is wrong of course. The Dean campaign, like the Kerry campaign, is very robust and will be alive until at least February 3rd/7th.

However, I do expect Kerry to start clobbering Dean directly on three big issues -- government programs, foreign policy experience, and progressive taxation. Two of these attacks will be weak -- the foreign policy experience and the government programs, since Kerry voted wrongly on both Iraq wars, and going after government programs only gives Dean free time to talk about health care. On progressive taxation and the economy, I do expect Kerry to start landing some hits. The Dean counterattack always prevents this from being a knockout, but I expect Kerry to do some damage with the Dean=tax hiker charge. The effectiveness of these attacks will be a nice test for the general election, since Bush will try analogous attacks to scare voters.

In general, the Republicans love to see us pile on each other, though I think this is just a bonus in Tucker's case.

[Hippo_Tron]

43. That's just Tucker talk...

Again, he's paid to speak before he thinks.

[Skwmom]

44. Tucker, a Republican, has been cheering Dean on and

propping him up.

I think he is using it:

1. To rile up Dean supporters to work even harder to get Dean the nomination.
2. To give the Deanies another phony example of how Rove is really threatened by Dean (not Clark) and Carlson is doing Rove's dirty worky by trying to bring Dean down (yeah right).

[RevolutionStartsNow]

50. Huh?

I think you are giving Carlson too much credit for being a political operative rather than a media whore. He's a publicity hound who just wants people talking about him. When he predicted that Hillary's book would flop, he looked stupid but damn if everyone wasn't talking about Tucker Carlson, and he got the bonus of having Hillary on his show to deliver the shoe-cake. Great ratings.

Now he's got everyone talking because he predicts that Dean, running in front or near front in the majority of recent polls, and on the heels of a record-setting fundraising quarter, will disappear from the race.

He knows it's ridiculous, but look how everyone's talking about him! Yay!

[Skwmom]

74. Take a look at #27.

Seems like he thinks this is proof the Repubs are afraid of Dean. Which of course is not the case.

[dsc]

70. Oh brother

It must be nice to be able to spin things as part of a pro Dean conspiracy no matter what they are. If Tucker says something bad about Dean it is still part of a conspiracy to pump him up. I used to be that paranoid, then I got sober.

[Kool Kitty]

45. "Why did Tucker Carlson make this statement this morning?"

Because he's a horse's ass, that's why. To start everyone running around like crazy, wondering is it true? is it not true? What the hell do you care what Carlson thinks? It's the saqme mentality that is behind Time's article about Clark's comments commending Bush. You couldn't swing a cat without hitting a democrat that praised Bush re: the actions in Afghanistan. Sheesh. Do you honestly think that Howard Dean is going to come this far and then quit? I don't believe it for a second. Tucker is just running off at the mouth, as usual. Ignore him, for your own sanity's sake.

[Samantha]

51. The inference was not that Dean would quit but that Kerry would knock

him out. Take a closer look at the question. I am not running around like crazy asking is it true, is it true. I don't think anyone at DU has a crystal ball which foretells the political future. I am simply asking what prompted the statement.

[Kool Kitty]

64. I don't think that anyone here has a crystal ball.

I heard the show this morning and as he was referring to Kerry, you may have a point. I just don't think that Tucker could have real insider information on something that Kerry is planning. (I mean, would he be the guy that you talked to in any kind of confidence? He's one of the worst gossips, sheesh.) The point I was trying to make was that Tucker is a pundit and he talks to hear himself, that's all. I didn't say that you were running around specifically, what I meant was the right wing idiots on the talk shows throw one of these bombs just to start trouble and get people second-guessing. I didn't mean to be insulting. I guess I'm just sick of this 2004 campaign already.

[kodi]

46. howard dean and his organization are far too strong to have that happen

the democratic nomination will be won by personalities and campaign strength, not issues, especially not an issue on which there is not a dime's worth of difference between the candidates.

[birdman]

48. I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry did go on the attack

about Medicare and SS. Kerry's a fighter and
he's not going to let Dean walk away with the
nomination unchallenged. On the other hand Dean 's
got to show that he can fend off an attack. If he's
going to handle the Bush attacks he's got to be able to
handle Kerry.

[Truthaddict]

52. Grain of salt, Tucker needs attention

he's a little sissy boy trying to hide his receding hair line

[DrFunkenstein]

55. Iowa Favors Cockroaches

Democrats elect their county convention delegates by presidential preference group, rather than by the whole caucus. At the time delegates are elected, the caucus splits up into preference groups - supporters of each candidate gather in different parts of the room. There is no secret ballot and no straw poll.

A presidential preference group must have at least 15% of the precinct's total number of caucus attendees in order to elect county convention delegates.

Participants are allowed to regroup if their candidate has too few supporters to choose a delegate or if they decide to support another candidate.

http://www.johnson-county.com/auditor/voter/caucus04.htm#Caucus%20Procedure

---

Let's look at the nature of Iowa. It is not a primary. People vote for who they want and then realign themselves until a winner is picked. Dean people are pretty zealous, so they won't be moving anywhere else soon.

But there is a lot of room for movement within the "cockroach" section (as Dean puts it) of the candidates. Do you think the Lieberman and Gephardt people are going to Dean? Not very likely. I would say Clark has a better shot, but so far he has picked up almost no traction there. That remains to be seen.

So as I see it, there will be a big split between the Dean campaign and the campaigns he's stepped on to get where he is. That may work in Gephardt's favor or it may work in Kerry's favor. I'm banking on Kerry, who seems a better match against Bush - but we'll just have to see.

<>

[Hep]

56. 450,000

people who know how to kick anyone's ass on the medicare and SS gambit.

It's up to Dean supporters to get the truth out. And we're doing a damn fine job of it. If Kerry wants to go there, he's welcome to do it.

[KaraokeKarlton]

60. Oh, Kerry will try, I'm sure, but it won't work and will hurt Kerry

Kerry is going to lose the nomination to Dean and how dirty he plays is going to turn people off so much that he'll lose his current job. Between missing so many votes, casting lousy votes, looking like a total loser and turning people off, his career in politics won't last much longer.

[kyrasdad]

61. Beware of Republicans Bearing Predictions

Carlson, Novak, Rushie, they have all been saying as often as they can, usually as loud as they can that Dean can't win. I think they're hoping it will be a self fulfilling prophecy. My take is they're afraid. I think they know that Dean can stomp on Dubya like a bug in an open debate (course, so could my 8 year old nephew, but that's beside the point) and show him for the not so compassionate conservative, reformer with results that Rove told him to say he is.

[CMT]

62. I think if they had anymore on Dean

regarding Medicare/ss that Gep would be using it right now in Iowa where he has been agressively going after Dean on this issue. The thing is that Dean's record on healthcare will overcome this because he has provided/expanded insurance covereage for kids and prescription drugs for seniors in Vt. I agree that overall he has done alot of what the people in Washington are advocating on a state level--yet they are attacking him on healthcare.

[ShaneGR]

63. Who the hell cares what Tucker Carlson predicts

Bow-tied blowhard.

[blm]

65. It's Tucker trying to rile up Dean supporters against Kerry.

They've been doing it for months, in case you haven't noticed. Kerry rarely gets any coverage by the corporate media unless it's a way to use Dean against him.

[leesa]

66. Oh please. Who the hell would want "can't make a decision' Kerry

Republicans are so out of touch with reality!

[HPLeft]

72. Adult Democrats

Governor Dean has been running on attitude, and I've had it up to here with attitude. Give me real demonstrated courage, a powerful intellect and credible foreign policy experience any day over attitude. Enough with the outsider Governors, especially from a state with a smaller population than the individual boroughs of New York City.

[Merlin]

87. It's criminal that he should be from such a small state!

Nobody from a small state should be allowed to run for President. Everybody knows only people from big states are smart enought to run the country. Dean only has an MD, so we know he's not too bright.

And that damn Dean just hasn't fleshed out a single, substantive policy position. Just all attitude. His opponents are obviously so much smarter and more courageous. They all have such detailed foreign policy experience. Hell, I hear Kerry even visited France once.

Nothing to Dean. Sure he has impressed a great many Democrats and independents and raised more money than all the veteran blue-bloods. It's all an illusion. In just a couple of weeks it'll all go Poof!

Not!

[Mairead]

67. Sounds like someone's been at the nonsense again.

Dean's campaign has too much inertia. I could believe in a big dent being taken, because he really does have an awful set of policies and record, but I really cannot take seriously the idea that any revelation short of murder, paedophilia, or major fraud could completely crash his campaign.

[AP]

68. My theory:

First off, you can dismiss the notion that the Republicans are doing this to take down Kerry and Dean and get Clark in first place. There's been enough said about this, and I'm not going to rehash.

I have no doubt that the inevitable strategy that will be used against Dean will be to point out that he's not really very liberal on core Democratic principles and that the person who takes him out will take him out on that issue.

Now, if I had to guess I'd say that the thing that is making the candidates hestitate now is that they don't want to piss off the Dean supporters. There's a risk that an attack will result in pushing a lot of people out of the Democratic process (they will be very easily exploited by RW media to believe that they have no voice, and that all the remaining candidates are just same-old same old).

Compare 2000 -- just about every white liberal supporter of Nader ended up voting for Gore. However, nobody had to attack Nader to take those voters out of the Green column and put them in the Gore column. They used their common sense when it came down to it. (Hey, by the way, Lieberman's participation in the primary is to get out the liberal vote?)

Right now, I think the candidates are all doing a calculus trying to balance on the one hand waiting, and not pissing off Dean's supporters and hoping somebody else does the attack or hoping that people pick up on Dean's weak points, and, on the other hand, not letting it go on so long that Dean is able to pick up even more supporters.

Now that Dean has a lot of money, he really has the opportunity to buy media time and expand his appeal and to fend off his opponents. So now there's a little urgency. If Kerry goes another quarter, the money gap could widen, which would make it even harder to state the case. So it seems now, or soon, is the right time to unfold the anti-Dean strategy.

Now, as to why Carlson is talking about it; well, he could just be making up shit, or just drawing the conlusion I drew, not based on any real inside information. Who knows? It's strange. I wouldn't trust anything he says, so there must be some pro-Republican angle to this, right?

[Samantha]

82. Yes, there's definitely a pro-Republican angle

But what exactly serves their best interests, I am not sure. I could fall back on the divide and conquor strategy Rove has expressed but I think it's a bit more than that. As to whom the Republicans would rather run against, I personally think they would rather run against Kerry. While some have said Dean is unelectable, they assume he cannot garner much Southern support. I don't think Kerry will do much better in the South, despite his military record.

You are definitely on the mark about Kerry not wanting to alienate Dean supporters. Strategically speaking, he's better off getting someone else to do that for for him and who better than a Republican pundit. Kerry has to be thinking he's going to eventually need those Dean voters, so he has to be subtle. After all, Dean cast a net for the Gore voters and has been nothing but complimentary about the former Vice President. Kerry really alienated quite a few with his unfortunate remarks following the Electoral College vote of 2000, so perhaps he has learned from this mistake.

This is going to get very interesting very soon.

[pandatimothy]

69. He is full of crap

GO DEAN!

[HPLeft]

71. I don't believe it

IMHO, the real smoke is hovering around the way that Dean has disguised his various stances on Iraq. His attack against Kerry, Edwards and Clark on Friday was truly shameful, considering his own statements - where one moment he's supporting unilateral action under certain conditions, and the next he's condemning his opponents for holding less militant positions. And, sooner or later, Doctor Dean's statements deserve to sink his crediblity lower than the ocean floor. But that's going to take time, and IMHO, it's not going to happen this soon. We can only hope that it happens before Dubya gets to him.

The Medicare issue stikes me as too complex to be that kind of knockout issue.

As for what's in it for Carlson, who knows? One assumes that he's heard something, but I have no idea what anybody could have that would make that issue radioactive. I read an old article this morning (from links posted by another DU contributor), in which Dean seemed to have been encouraging Vermont Hospitals to essentially ration healthcare. That certainly will not improve his image - although it might have been the only approach possible to control costs in a non-competitive healthcare market like Vermont.

[LibertyorDeath]

73. Come on you're killin me, His name is Tucker & he wears bow ties

He is a snide arrogant rightwing little shit who thinks he has all the answers.

[area51]

76. Tucker Carlson

Screw you, Tucker Carlson, you loser.


As usual, you're wrong.

[nolabels]

79. If I believe

Tucker Carylson, a Republican Tucker Carylson, a Republican Tucker Carylson, a Republican Tucker Carylson, a Republican Tucker Carylson, a Republican Tucker Carylson, a Republican Tucker Carylson, a Republican Tucker Carylson, a Republican Tucker Carylson, a Republican Tucker Carylson,
a Republican Tucker Carylson, a Republican Tucker Carylson, a Republican Tucker Carylson, a Republican Tucker Carylson, a RepublicanTucker Carylson,
a Republican Tucker Carylson, a Republican Tucker Carylson, a Republican Tucker Carylson, a Republican

I Rest my case

[Zolok]

84. As a Kerry-ite lemme say this...

I'm not gonna bet on the prediction....
Tucker's prognostication was pure McLaughlinism start to finish, some utter nonsense to fill up the tv time that is all.
Carlson would've screeched like an orangutang if he could've gotten away with it...pay it no mind.
At some point some serious adverts may come out of the whole contretempts but I doubt we will see them this year.

[Brian Sweat]

86. Carlson is an idiot.

I don't put any stock in anything he says.

[Undemcided]

88. Is he taking any bets?

I'd like some of that action.

[corarose]

89. F*cker Carlson had to EAT his shoe after his last Prediction?

Anyone remember the remark about Hillary's book sales.

F*cker Carlson doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground.