Dec 8, 2005
China eroding US dominance
By Donald Alford Weadon Jr
The Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation's recent attempted acquisition of Unocal raised American fears that China could challenge American energy security. Inside the beltway, conventional wisdom said spiking such Chinese deals would make the United States safer. Torpedoed by concerted lobbying by energy firms and administration China hawks, the deal was replaced when, only days later, the Chinese acquired PetroKazakhstan of Calgary for over US$4 billion in cash, a fateful transaction which barely merited ink in the US media.
Rather than making America safer, the Unocal affair only increased China's incentive to seek and bolster reliable energy supplies through bilateral trade on a global scale at America's expense. Other energy deals are being reported weekly.
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Furthermore, the Chinese understand leverage in the trade equation on all levels, and they have utilized it to bolster their trade development in the Middle East, whether it be through sophisticated financial guarantees or petroleum-based finance. In the Gulf, Chinese companies are slowly translating growing trade relations into a concrete presence and regional political influence.
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What is the best metaphor for this situation, which lacks both the linearity of checkers and the exquisite dynamism of chess? Perhaps it is the national game of China - wei ch'i or "Go" - where control of the board is the crucial objective and the timeline is slow and deliberate. As in this 4,000-year-old board game, China is using economic wedge maneuvers to expand its financial influence, harden its economic achievements into political interests, and ultimately achieve control of the "board". Note how a string of Chinese actions defending Iran at the UN dovetailed with a series of large China-Iran energy deals.
Energy and economic engagement with the developing world are not the only diplomatic tools at China's command. China is now capable of unilateral action, with its UN veto a sheathed sword against US action. American influence as has been traditionally exerted will be a thing of the past unless China's goals are understood, and they are effectively engaged.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/GL08Cb05.html