The (Finally) Emerging Republican Majority or Why bush deserves to win

[TheReligiousLeft]

Fred Barnes talks about how the Republicans have an edge. Rudy G. and Ahhhnuld have become republicans that open their arms to liberals, so we are become 'pubs in droves. After 9-11 white women vote 'pub, California proves Latinos have went 'pub, and Dems have always been wussies so white males hate us.
While this should be read with more than a grain of salt (a salt-shaker mayhap) I think it should be read. This is going to be the 'puke argument for why Bush should win '04. Defense/9-11, support of minorities, and the Terminator effect.
<http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/003/259yvdec.asp>

FTER THE 1972 AND 1980 ELECTIONS, Republicans said political realignment across the country would soon make them the dominant party. It didn't happen. Now, despite highly favorable signs in the 2002 midterm elections and the California recall, Republicans fear a jinx. Realignment? they ask. What realignment?

Matthew Dowd, President Bush's polling expert, notes heavy Republican turnout in 2002 and the recall, a splintering of the Democratic coalition, Republican gains among Latinos, and shrinking Democratic voter identification--all unmistakable signs of realignment. But he won't call it realignment. Whoa! says Bill McInturff, one of the smartest Republican strategists, let's not be premature. Before anyone claims realignment has put Republicans in control nationally, McInturff says, the GOP must win the White House, Senate, and House in 2004 and maybe even hold Congress in 2006. Bush adviser Karl Rove agrees. He recently told a Republican group that the realignment question won't be decided until 2004.

There's really no reason to wait. Realignment is already here, and well advanced. In 1964, Barry Goldwater cracked the Democratic lock on the South. In 1968 and 1972, Republicans established a permanent advantage in presidential races. In the big bang of realignment, 1994, Republicans took the House and Senate and wiped out Democratic leads in governorships and state legislatures. Now, realignment has reached its entrenchment phase. Republicans are tightening their grip on Washington and erasing their weakness among women and Latinos. The gender gap now exposes Democratic weakness among men. Sure, an economic collapse or political shock could reverse these gains. But that's not likely.

[Davis_X_Machina]

1. There are no 'gains' to consolidate.

Republicans are only 'tightening their grip on Washington' by means fair and foul that threaten the very existence of the Republic.

They wouldn't do this unless they knew they were doomed.

[TheReligiousLeft]

2. Yeah, the article mentions Texas redistricting proudly!

Because the 'pukes are doing so well they deserve to redistric, thus cementing thier doing well... Yeah, so logical.

[muriel_volestrangler]

18. It's incredible that they're open about gerrymandering

"Last year, Republicans shattered the mold of midterm elections for a new president, picking up nine House seats. Most of these came from Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, states where Republicans controlled the legislature and governor's office in 2001 and exploited the new census to draw House districts for Republican advantage. In 2002, Republicans completed their takeover of Texas by winning the state house of representatives. This allowed them to gerrymander the U.S. House districts earlier this month to target incumbent white Democrats. Unless the redistricting is overturned in court, Democrats may lose five to seven seats in 2004. "Texas means there's no battle for the House" until after the 2010 census, says Republican pollster Frank Luntz. Democrats may wind up with fewer than 200 seats for the first time since 1946, says Burnham. "

Looking from outside America, I think that the astonishing thing about the Florida debacle was that the Republicans were so open about not wanting to recount. If they'd contested individual ballots as being spoilt, or not, to Bush's advantage, we could have understood that; but the argument that a recount would be damaging, because it would throw doubt on the earlier count, or take a bit longer, was incredible. Now the openness of gerrymandering is again astounding. It really looks like politicians saying "we're in charge now, so we can make the rules, even if they're not democratic". I really do think they've be laughed down in most other countries (I have my doubts about Italy at the moment).

Is there any site with a total for whole country of the Democratic and Republican votes for the House in 2002? How do the numbers compare with the seats won?

[diplomats]

4. California will not vote for Bush in 2004

Dem turnout was not good in 2002, but with Bush running for reelection (sic) in 2004, we'll be out in droves. Dem turnout is always better in presidential years than off years.

[TheReligiousLeft]

6. Deadbolt? Give perception of a win

And that is that. Further if he funnels lots of federal funds to Ahhnold he can say "that Grey Davis, a Democrat was unable to help you California. But the big man was able to. Vote Republican, Compassionate conservitism. Terror. Code Orange. Compassion. I love Jesus, just hate his teachings..."

[rucky]

16. The Dean Theory About Calee-For-niea:

The vote wasn't for Arnold & the Repubs...nor was it against Davis and the Dems, persay. It was against the status quo.

If he's correct, it'll be the same sentiment makes Cali vote Dem next year.

[mhr]

3. What About The Economy?

You can only disenfranchise people so long before they have nothing left to lose and they fight back.

Mortgage Foreclosures: all time high
Personal Bankruptcy: all time high
Unemployment: near record high
New Job Creation: worst since Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression

[TheReligiousLeft]

5. Keep them more scared about the world outside

Make them fear little Korean dictators. Maybe even make China a boogieman again, start up an arms race. I don't know there are many ways to hide economic pain. Bread Circus. Appeal to base emotions, "Ug. George big protector. Rucktar. George run country like corperation. Zugtar. George go on Opera. Surtrrp. George common man, like big ranch."

[mhr]

9. I Know You Are Right

The media has completely brainwashed the sheeple.

We are doomed!

[area51]

13. Fred Barnes should put down his crack pipe (dreams).

We're not doomed. I'm sure the nos. of the unemployed are vastly undercounted. With the unemployed (& the "one degree of unemployment", that most people have a friend or family member unemployed), and the people who are on to Goerge W. Hoover's lies, he's going to get his fscking ass fired in Nov. '04.

[andym]

14. Very True

This is very true. News is now entertainment. News is provided by very few corporate outlets. American people have too many of their
own concerns to be worried about politics.

[jafap]

7. I do not know about the governorships

Since 1998 Republicans have lost Iowa, Wisconsin, and Kansas.

2002 I think showed how the President can use our own tax dollars against us. Instead of doing his job, Bush flew all over the country campaigning. I do not remember, maybe Clinton did the same thing, but it sure made for free advertising. Bush was constantly on the news campaigning for Jim no-Talent. Plus it was still too close to 9/11. Hopefully America will wake up in 2004.

[Brucey]

8. Democrats stick up for minorities and the little guy,

and that is not popular even among minorities and little guys. Also, repugs have the no tax thing going for them. That's practically a majority of votes in itself. The electoral college will kill us. The voting machines will destroy us. We have the worst president in the history of the US, he has ruined everything from jobs to international reputation to the environment, he has given us war and recession, increased the poverty rate, and destroyed our civil rights... and he probably will be re-selected. Why? No taxes, no wimps, fear and trembling, trickery and fraud. They own the media. After the debates next fall, Bush will be declared the clear winner. People will believe. The stock market will be artificially driven up by the wealthy. People will believe the economy is improving. Bush will make it clear that taxes will go up with anyone else. God, family, and country will be rammed down our throats. Saddam will be captured or killed (unless they decide it's better to have him lurking out there increasing American fears). Etc., etc. Electoral college, no taxes, voting frauds, anti-gay, and fear will likely give him another fake victory. Four years of W, then 8 years of Jeb or his son, then 8 years of Ahnold maybe. Buy property in Canada now.

[Flubadubya]

10. "Saddam will be captured or killed ..."

Call me cynical, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Saddam has already been captured and they are just waiting for the most politically advantageous moment to declare that they just did it! :tinfoilhat:

You're probably right to think it will be just before the election though. :grr:

[WillyBrandt]

11. What a bunch of baloney

It's very instructive that the two examples of Republicans-that-Democrats-can-deal-with are Schwarzenegger and Guiliani:

(1) Most important: both are regional figures.
(2) Both are freak shows: there are only so many Arnolds and so many recall elections; Guiliani stopped being hated only after 9/11
(3) Guiliani is out of power, and bowed out when it became clear he couldn't win against Hillary. There's a good chance Arnold will pull a Ventura.

Moreoever, it's funny that Fred Barnes isn't so big on mentioning the demographic trends going against the GOP.

One of the Right's favorite tactics is the self-fulfilling prophecy: if you can scare Dems into thinking the forces of history are inexorably against them, then they will act like they are.

Shame on DUers who buy into this crap. And shame on DUers who talk--or even joke--about buying property in Canada. We've got to fight to take this country back: capitulation is exactly what the Right is looking for.

America is a truly wonderful country. We have, as Americans, an unbelievable amount to be proud of, and a multitude of reasons to love our country very much. A gang of crooked bums is trying to ruin what makes this nation so good: and a bunch of privileged cowards mumble about running away. Horrible! Stay. Fight. Win.

[TheReligiousLeft]

12. A call to arms

Stay. Fight. Win.
Good call.
At the same time if we just assume demographics will help our cause we become passive. We can't just say the major trends point toward more Dems. We need to get out there and make sure these people do become Dems. Just as we can't let the GOP use historical forces against us we can't use historical forces against ourselves. \
meh. That's my thoughts for now.

[WillyBrandt]

15. We must capture the moment

The point is taht we do not have a demographic steamroller, or a wave of political forces, or whatever dooming us to oblivion.

Quite the contrary--if we are smart--and if we fight--then we can turn potential political power into a governing majority.

[Terran]

17. You're wrong

You're facts are wrong. For one thing, only 13% of the registered voters in California are Latino, even though one-third of the state's population is Latino. Latinos haven't "gone repub", they're just not fully registered. Check your facts before you spout this drivel.