Nir Rosen in Atlantic Monthly: "The case for cutting and running"

[understandinglife]

If America Left Iraq: The case for cutting and running

by Nir Rosen

December, 2005 The Atlantic Monthly

At some point—whether sooner or later—U.S. troops will leave Iraq. I have spent much of the occupation reporting from Baghdad, Kirkuk, Mosul, Fallujah, and elsewhere in the country, and I can tell you that a growing majority of Iraqis would like it to be sooner. As the occupation wears on, more and more Iraqis chafe at its failure to provide stability or even electricity, and they have grown to hate the explosions, gunfire, and constant war, and also the daily annoyances: having to wait hours in traffic because the Americans have closed off half the city; having to sit in that traffic behind a U.S. military vehicle pointing its weapons at them; having to endure constant searches and arrests. Before the January 30 elections this year the Association of Muslim Scholars—Iraq's most important Sunni Arab body, and one closely tied to the indigenous majority of the insurgency—called for a commitment to a timely U.S. withdrawal as a condition for its participation in the vote. (In exchange the association promised to rein in the resistance.) It's not just Sunnis who have demanded a withdrawal: the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who is immensely popular among the young and the poor, has made a similar demand. So has the mainstream leader of the Shiites' Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, who made his first call for U.S. withdrawal as early as April 23, 2003.

If the people the U.S. military is ostensibly protecting want it to go, why do the soldiers stay? The most common answer is that it would be irresponsible for the United States to depart before some measure of peace has been assured. The American presence, this argument goes, is the only thing keeping Iraq from an all-out civil war that could take millions of lives and would profoundly destabilize the region. But is that really the case? Let's consider the key questions surrounding the prospect of an imminent American withdrawal.

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TOPICS ADDRESSED:

Would the withdrawal of U.S. troops ignite a civil war between Sunnis and Shiites?

But if American troops aren't in Baghdad, what's to stop the Sunnis from launching an assault and seizing control of the city?

Wouldn't a U.S. withdrawal embolden the insurgency? (hint -- NO)

But what about the foreign jihadi element of the resistance? Wouldn't it be empowered by a U.S. withdrawal?

What about the Kurds? Won't they secede if the United States leaves?

Would Turkey invade in response to a Kurdish secession?

Would Iran effectively take over Iraq? (hint -- NO)

What about the goal of creating a secular democracy in Iraq that respects the rights of women and non-Muslims? (hint -- GIVE IT UP)

What can the United States do to repair Iraq?

There is no panacea. Iraq is a destroyed and fissiparous country. Iranians and Saudis I've spoken to worry that it might be impossible to keep Iraq from disintegrating. But they agree that the best hope of avoiding this scenario is if the United States leaves; perhaps then Iraqi nationalism will keep at least the Arabs united. The sooner America withdraws and allows Iraqis to assume control of their own country, the better the chances that Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari won't face sahil. It may be decades before Iraq recovers from the current maelstrom. By then its borders may be different, its vaunted secularism a distant relic. But a continued U.S. occupation can only get in the way.

Link:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200512/iraq-withdrawal

Important, cogent and timely.


Peace.

[understandinglife]

1. William E. Odom: "Want stability in the Middle East? Get out of Iraq!"

As I have watched the reactions to my earlier piece on NiemanWatchdog.org, "What’s wrong with cutting and running?” (http://www.niemanwatchdog.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=ask_this.view&askthisid=129), I recognize that one critical point does not come through to many readers. The problem may stem from the words "cut and run" in the title. In the minds of some, that seems to imply leaving the region for good. My argument is fundamentally different.

I believe that stabilizing the region from the Eastern Mediterranean to Afghanistan is very much an American interest, one we share with all our allies as well as with several other countries, especially, China, Russia, and India.

<clip>

TOPICS COVERED:

The ‘Global Balkans’

A Missed Opportunity

Iraq as a Dead End Street

Withdrawal is the Precondition to Progress

"Staying the course" may make a good sound bite, but it can be disastrous for strategy. Several of Hitler's generals told him that "staying the course" at Stalingrad in 1942 was a strategic mistake, that he should allow the Sixth Army to be withdrawn, saving it to fight defensive actions on reduced frontage against the growing Red Army. He refused, lost the Sixth Army entirely, and left his commanders with fewer forces to defend a wider front. Thus he made the subsequent Soviet offensives westward easier.

To argue, as some do, that we cannot leave Iraq because "we broke it and therefore we own it" is to reason precisely the way Hitler did with his commanders. Of course we broke it! But the Middle East is not a pottery store. It is the site of major military conflict with several different forces that the United States is galvanizing into an alliance against America. To hang on to an untenable position is the height of irresponsibility. Beware of anyone, including the president, who insists that this is "responsible" or "the patriotic" thing to do.

Link:

http://niemanwatchdog.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=background.view&backgroundid=0063&stoplayout=true&print=true

Lieutenant General William E. Odom, U.S. Army (Ret.), is a Senior Fellow with Hudson Institute and a professor at Yale University. He was Director of the National Security Agency from 1985 to 1988. From 1981 to 1985, he served as Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, the Army's senior intelligence officer. From 1977 to 1981, he was Military Assistant to the President's Assistant for National Security Affairs, Zbigniew Brzezinski.

Beware, indeed.


Peace.

[understandinglife]

4. Our allies "cut and run" -- wisely

Two U.S. Allies Leaving Iraq, More May Go

http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IRAQ_CRUMBLING_COALITION?SITE=JRC&SECTION=POLITICS&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2005-12-01-16-20-23


Peace.

[Time for change]

2. Excellent article - covers all the bases n/t

[understandinglife]

3. "See? We can't even get past the sheer incompetence long enough to ...

... recognize the self-delusion that blocks us from dealing with the intractable rivalries which have kept us from even starting to address the uncontrolled violence. Aside from that, though, things are going just fine.

Much more of Still losing in translation by Swopa at:

http://www.needlenose.com/node/view/2371

yes, aside from that ....


Peace.