I'm sorry, I don't buy it; I can't see W leaving Iraq under his watch

[salin]

Doesn't fit his psyche. "Mr. Resolute." "Mr. batter anyone down who doesn't agree with me." "Mr. I don't have to explain myself to anyone because I am president." And biggest thing... "Mr. my daddy got unpopular because people think he didn't win the war in Iraq."

All of this speculation that there is a withdrawl before the next election (mid terms) doesn't take into account that W won't do it - not while he is president. Only thing they could do to protect their GOP congressional seats - is to "depose" er impeach Bush - but that isn't likely as that action would further split their constituencies - and split the power of the rw media echo chamber (in such a fight who would the echo chamber support), thus making the chance to propogandize their way to reelection even harder and less likely.

I just can not see a scenario where the psyche of the president would allow him, as commander and chief, to begin a withdrawl - for the sake of other GOP politicians (he doesn't need to for himself - he has no reelection and his delusions make him believe that history will view him as heroic.)

There is no way a Bush/Cheney administration is going to acquiesce to a draw down of military presence in Iraq. I just can't see it. If you can see a scenario that would render bush ordering a draw down of troops (aka phased withdrawl) - I would love to read it. B/c the idea of this dragging on and on makes me ill - however any impetus shy of an opposition party running congress and acting after 2006 (which isn't a given) - just seems unlikely.

[PDittie]

1. Not unless we change the Congress

next November.

[MuseRider]

2. He might

although I do tend to agree with you. I can't imagine it without a scenario like this one....

I think they will declare victory, bring the troops home before the election and we will never, ever hear another report out of Iraq from our media.

[grytpype]

3. He is going to be forced to.

The military is going to pass the word up the chain of command, "we can't keep this up."

And Rove is going to be telling him the Repugs are going to get creamed in the midterms unless troops start coming home.

[salin]

10. they are delusional - they think that if they find and market test

the "right" way to sell this ... that they will still be able to bamboozle the public. They are a long way away from conceding 'defeat' - hence the belief that they can "campaign style attack" critics... and they clearly still believe that if they do this "with better discipline" that their problems will be solved.

[NVMojo]

4. the case for personal gain for those who intimately pushed this invasion

still needs to be made publicly. We need to define why the fuck they have/had us over there in the first place since it had nothing to do with stopping terrorism.

[Marie26]

5. Mr. War President

He's called himself the "War President" and "Commander in Chief" so often that I don't see it either. Maybe if people are rioting in the streets, although that didn't stop the Vietnam War. He isn't allowing any other opinions to reach him beyond his yes-men in the Cabinet, and he's already purged the upper levels of anyone who might have stood up to him. It doesn't look good. Maybe only if Dick Cheney changes his mind!

[salin]

11. Dick doesn't care - dick thinks the presidency can do what it wants

congress be f*cked - he has carried that attitude since his time in the Nixon WH. For very different reasons, I think that he (Cheney) is as unlikely to concede as W is.

[Marie26]

25. that's true

Cheney is as deluded as Bush. OK, last try, what about Rumsfeld? He's cracking, you can tell, and seems more & more uncomfortable with defending what's happening in Iraq. He's also hearing directly from the generals about what a mess it is, and probably also the equally depressing forecast. He's less personally (financially) invested than Cheney is. Maybe Rumsfeld can screw up the courage to tell Bush he needs to leave? I can maybe, maybe see that. (Whether Bush would listen is another question).

[still_one]

6. you are right, it will be an illusion

PNAC has no intention of leaving, their whole plan was to have permanent bases there

I suspect there will be a lot of sound and fury, but in the end it will signify NOTHING

unless of course we win 2006

[longship]

7. He won't want to, but he is going to have to do it.

He has no choice. Congress has the power.

Some say that we need to change the Congress in 2006 for this to happen. I disagree. On Iraq, Congress is changing right before our very eyes. Murtha's statement was very powerful and very compelling. The citizens of this country have absolutely had it with ChimpCo and his war. ChimpCo is finito. He has no political power other than his dirty tricks, and they are no longer working.

Then, there's this minor matter of investigations and indictments. They are the frosting on the cake.

Do you feel the ground shaking? I do. There is a huge political shift happening before our very eyes.

Now, ChimpCo's position is "stay the course". Likely it will always be "stay the course". He will try to fight this the way he tries to fight everything, by stonewalling and with politics. But as we've seen, it's only making things worse for him. Unfortunately for the neocons, that's the only thing they know. The only question is how much of this country will they decimate before they are held to account. The farther they go, the more nasty the payback will be. Maybe there *is* karma.

[salin]

12. "Unfortunately for the neocons, that's the only thing they know."

Exactly.

I am speaking to the speculation - that for the elections sake that there will be a withdrawl before the midterm (06) elections. I can't see it for the very reason you express.

I also think that there will be payback at the polls - though I don't know that either chamber of congress will flip power ... even if neither does - the majorities will greatly shrink - and the moderates will have greater power. There could - sometime after that - be excruciating pressure on bushco to THEN begin some kind of change of policy/action.

[longship]

28. I think that a Dem majority in 2007 in both houses is inevitable.

I won't speculate how much of a majority will be gained, but there is little doubt in my mind that the Repugs will be swept out of power. They have done *nothing* for five years. The people are sick and tired of it.

The Dems seemed to be getting their shit together. If trends continue, and we have no reason to believe that they won't, there will be no stopping things.

The real wild card here is how the Repugs handle this. From my reading of the situation, they have completely undermined their own ability to come to any reasonable concensus. They have literally painted themselves into a corner. It should be the Dem strategy to insure that they *stay* in that ideological corner. I do not think that the Dems will have to work very hard to achieve that. The Repugs seem to realize that this is the only turf that they have staked out for themselves. They are literally trapped by their own rhetoric.

A few Repugs will return to moderation, but not many. They may save their seats. The bulk of them show no sign of bolting from the ChimpCo agenda. Six months from now it will likely be not much different.

The collective citizenry of the US may not be very smart, but they are not fools. Other than the pure ideologues, which I place at about 20-25%, the rest of the country has awaken to the scams and the shams.

This is a case where the diversity of thought in the Dem party works in their favor. We're going to have a lot of Republicans voting for Dems in the next election cycle. These guys are going to lose.

[jannyk]

8. And this administration is a one trick pony

they have nothing else but Iraq War/Terror, it is really their whole platform. They'd have 3 years with no domestic agenda and everyone focusing on the lack of one.

Also, without the war as an excuse, they'd have to come up with a plan to reduce/eliminate the deficit - which we all know they don't have.

The war is their 'cover'. There's no way their giving it up willingly.

[salin]

14. interesting analysis - war as 'cover'...

they had other items - but the public won't stomache them and congress is getting wishy-washy (fear of retribution at polls) leaving them with... War on Terror = Iraq War = fly paper... etc.

[SammyWinstonJack]

9. Mr. "Stay the course" I say this about **, he's a hard headed little

SOB. He's already stated that he won't bring the Troops home until "victory" is achieved and only he gets to decide what defines "victory" . Besides, if the Troops come home, who protects Halliburton and the oil?

[salin]

16. Halliburton, however, may have REAL problems before the end of W's

second term. The rate of their fraud, the publicity it is garnering, Cheney's decreasing numbers... I think the chicken's will roost or at least will begin to roost by the end of 2007/8

[Armstead]

13. October 06 -- Dramatic announcement of withdrawal

Just a guess

[salin]

18. But why? He doesn't give a darn about congressional folks

he thinks they win if he is almighty and all-powerful, and that it is their lack of discipline that is dragging HIM down - so why would he do this - which would go so far against his psyche? Nothing in it for him to gain from - and opportunists don't tend to do things to benefit others, unless it benefits themselve's even more.

[greiner3]

15. He's got to be thinking (well, whatever he does that passes for it)

'But there's 100,000+ US troops I could let die still there.':cry:

[salin]

19. or by a year from now...

they have to stay to honor the x thousand war dead who risked their lives... the noble cause is now the honour of the war dead. :cry: :mad:

[seabeyond]

17. he loses either way. stay, it is wrong. leave, the dems made him

and he lost the war. but no, i do not see bush leaving. he is there for good, and wants the oil so that alone i dont see him leaving. he never admits or acknowledge error. so he wont from that angle. and even when his people say, dont do that, he ignores them.
consistantly

[Marr]

20. The Bush Admin. won't leave Iraq until they've set up a new thug regime.

And even then, the bases will remain.

They went in to control the resources and to have a strategic foothold in the region. If they gave a shit about public opinion they never would've invaded in the first place.

[Marie26]

26. Headed by Ahmed Chalabi

There's an election for Prime Minister this December - this is probably why Chalabi was taking his "grand tour" of Washington this month drumming up support. Once Chalabi's in charge to protect their interests (bases, oil) and keep their secrets, maybe they'll feel like they can finally withdraw American troops.

[LunaC]

21. They'll never abandon their PNAC foothold

The only hope we have is to win the 06 midterms and immediately impeach With current public sentiment, that's entirely possible since the anger and resentment will grow exponentially between now and then.

[Wind Dancer]

22. I think * is having a mental breakdown.

It's becoming harder and harder to keep him under control so anything is possible. His arrogant and pompous personality are destroying the GOP's longterm plans, they will never allow him to continue at this rate. Who knows what could happen next.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

24. The majority of the leaders in the GOP are arrogant and pompous.

I can't see them admitting any wrongs or failures, even if it sinks the country. By this time, they should have gotten a clue about junior, but they protect him like he sits on the Holy Grail.

[Wind Dancer]

27. I can't argue the GOPs are arrogant and pompous, too.

The boyking is the front man for the "elite powers" operating behind the scenes. You may be correct and he will be protected or they will keep him more contained. I think he is scaring the elite by demanding more and throwing temper tantrums - it's anybody's guess how this will play out in public and behind the scenes.

Regardless, it's one scary scenario.

[JohnnyRingo]

23. All he has to do is announce that 20,000 troops are coming home

The rest will leave on a timetable which will remain secret.

It'll all be about a perception of leaving and tickertape victory parades.
Other troops can be brought back in through a back door and kept from media for "security reasons".

[spanone]

29. Then it's our duty to make it his HELL.