I really don't understand why Bush's poll numbers are down

[HamdenRice]

Seriously. I mean I know that the Bush administration is the most corrupt and incompetent in US history, but I knew that for years. I know some hardcore Bush supporters who still think "Bush is lord" and I can't see them changing their views.

What I don't understand is why the swing voters have changed. Bush has been just as disasterous all along -- especially since the beginning of the war -- but what changed their views?

Really, since the summer, only four things have happened: Cindy Shehan, Katrina, the 2000th American causalty and the indictment of Scooter Libby.

Let's take the last first. We progressives have followed this as evidence of potentially treasonous behavior emanating from the White House ever since Joe Wilson went public. But I'm sad to say that for the majority of Americans, the story was simply too complex to explain: Let's see, the Vice President's aid has been indicted for disclosing the name of the wife of a former ambassador who was a CIA agent ("the wife or the ambassador" is the question I get when trying to explain to the uninformed) in retaliation for the ambassador's discovery that documents claiming that the African country of Niger was selling yellowcake or uranium ore, were forgeries despite the yellowcake claim having been included in the "16 words" in Bush's state of the union message ..... I have yet to successfully explain this scandal to anyone who is not already a news junkie. And if you tell them Scooter Libby had been indicted as the culmination of a multiyear investigation, most would say "Scooter who"? or "Scooter What?" In a way it's possible to argue from a pure PR perspective that this should be good for Bush. The only person who was indicted was too obscure to even know about for most people.

As for Cindy, I love what she did, but mostly it was we progressives who followed her and listened to her remarkable talks and speeches. For most Americans she was a one day story of an eccentric lady waiting outside the Bush ranch who in fact never got a chance to confront Bush.

The 2000th casualty was a terrible milestone for people already opposed to the war, but it was an arbitrary number. In fact there were no TV or newspaper images that could penetrate the average, non-political swing voter, that suggested a decline in the US strategic position in Iraq. There has been no Tet or Chinese crossing the Yalu River since August. The US position became untenable some time ago, so I'm not clear why swing voters and even Senate Republicans are suddenly recognizing this these days.

If I'm not mistaken -- and feel free to disagree or prove me wrong -- Bush jumped the shark with Katrina. That was when the administration really looked obviously out of touch, uncompassionate and above all incompetent on security. But I would guess a lot of swing voters would have looked at the Katrina victims and been turned off because they were poor and black or had the same reaction as Homelands Security Secretary, Michael Chertoff, who said those people suffering in New Orleans made bad decisions and now need to pay the price. For the most cold hearted neocons, who are social Darwinists, if not biological Darwinists, I would think that the images from New Orleans warmed their hearts.

So can anyone explain why Bush's poll numbers are plummeting? What actually happened since August that would pursuade the average swing voter, not the average DUer, to jump ship?

<edited>

[Deja Q]

1. Job loss, high gas cost, high heating costs, need I go on?

And I easily could?

They don't give a frig about anyone except themselves. They were raised by the repukes own talking points of "Screw your neighbor, help yourself" individualism.

They are hoisted by their own petard.

Forgive me if I don't shed one bloody tear.

I normally tolerate the human condition, but this is one case where collective stupidity doesn't deserve pity. We're all toast and we all allowed it to happen.

May God have mercy on our souls.

[YDogg]

2. Gas and fuel prices? Continuing death spiral in Iraq?

[HamdenRice]

3. Sadly, I think you are both right ...

It was the high gas prices right after Katrina and little else, was it?

[JAbuchan08]

4. Because four years ago they were setting their agenda on its course

and now people are feeling the effects of it.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

5. Katrina

took out the black vote, and most of the women.

IMHO

[SomewhereOutThere424]

26. Good point, and to add

It made the country feel less governed, and more like anarchy. The people no longer feel they can rely on any kind of 'higher power' in politics for assistance.

It will be hard to change that image as they continue to lie to us, and not help us. Maybe it just gave all of those bush fanatics the final pinch in their sleep to see if they're dreaming.

[Quakerfriend]

6. For my repug family who are all very well educated,

and have super jobs etc, the tipping point seemed to be gas prices!
No kidding.

Funny thing is they are all very active in local politics but, don't seem to actually know anything about the issues!

A little bit of this is the MSM daily BS machine. But, I find it hard to believe how nieve they are.

[charlyvi]

7. I think it started with Terri Schiavo.

He blew it big time then. Flew back from Crawford to sign the bill; hell, he didn't even fly back from Crawford when he got the "Bin Laden seeks to attack" daily memo. For the first time, people saw the emperor with no clothes.

[MichiganVote]

22. Yup. He showed his hand and so did the rest of the 'wacko's'

[cally]

33. I think that's what made folks take a second look

Before Schiavo, * seemed invincible. The hold the zealots had on the Repub party became evident. It was not about moral or religion, but politics. That's when many * policies were questioned. Katrina then showed how little compassion * has and how incompetent this government is. Add on the high gas prices, and folks are waking up.

[XemaSab]

8. Katrina's a big part of it

but he also hasn't had any photo-op moments, like going to the WTC site with a bullhorn or landing on the deck of the aircraft carrier.

I think a lot of people bought into the "strong leader in the war on terra" thing, and he's not living up to it.

[Caoimhe]

9. Bush's response to Katrina

was a watershed moment...erm.. few weeks. I know many repukes that watched people dying on tv and realized that Bush really didn't give a flying fvck about everyday Americans (those that aren't his BASE of the haves and the HAVE MORES)

[tlsmith1963]

25. I Agree

Since the news wasn't censored during that time, everyone got to see for themselves just how little Bush cares about average people. I was pretty angry at Bush before, but Katrina was really the last straw for me. *No one* should have to wait for days on end to get help after a disaster. America should be better than that.

Tammy

[displacedtexan]

10. I think it's just gas prices. Period.

Some of the backside of the Bell Curve have finally figured out that voting for OIL MEN might not have been such a bright idea.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

11. I think it is the war and because the Libby indictment brought a

steady stream of information about how nothing B** claimed about the war was true. And they see the death almost everyday in Iraq. It takes a long time before the casual observer of human events gets on board and critical mass is achieved. And once you realize someone is a liar, you do not trust them at all after that.

My husband has really turned the corner. He voted for Kerry because he had a feeling B** mislead us on the war. Now, he is convinced, and he is much more receptive to believing that Bush lies about everything now.

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

12. I think moderates/independents/swing voters were horrified at Schiavo

It made them realize that the term theocracy wasn't some radical LW talking point. The new Republican party sees no personal matter too small to intrude into...everyone dies and nobody wants to see Bill Frist, Rick Santorum or W standing at the foot of their deathbed dictating how they should go.

They started paying attention then, gas prices rose, Katrina hit, Iraq drags on, indictments came down, DeLay and Frist under investigation, the unscience aka intelligent design was being shoved into science classes, etc. etc.

But all these things became important becausethey started paying attention after the Schiavo intrusion. IMHO

[HamdenRice]

13. So far gas prices is the consensus

This is incredibly sad, but true. Thousands of our troops can be killed, bodies can be let to rot on the streets of a great city, but don't let gas go above $3 a gallon or you get a revolt.

If this is the consensus, it is just so, so sad to me.

[Johonny]

14. Lack of strawman

Bush wasn't very popular from the start of his presidency. But as "luck" would have it he got the perfect event. 9/11 saved Bush year 1 giving him countless punching bags to pin the countries problems on. Then came Iraq and another fake strawman to blame. Then came re-elect and John Kerry stepped in to fill the roll as Americas favorite blame guy. Now... there simply isn't anything left. People are sick of negative news, negative outlooks on the future... Bush is among anything else the darkest most unfriendly smirk ever to exist. He simply has no clue how to bring good news to the American people. He has no idea how to project a positive out look on the future. And now for the first time there's no one to blame (or more to the point people are blaming him). It's finally seems to occured to most of America Bush IS PRESIDENT.

[HamdenRice]

17. A Tom Friedman column on Bush doom

A while back I read one of the few TF columns I agreed with. It was about an Asian summit. The Premier of China or some other Chinese official made a really inspiring speech about the economic outlook for Asia that was well received.

TF then reported that Bush then made a really grim speech about terrorism -- the world divided, a fight to the death, etc. The heads of other countries really weren't impressed and remarked about what a dark vision he has of the world.

[shaniqua6392]

15. Two things in my opinion.

The first was that the sheeple had to start paying higher gas prices. That really pissed them off. Most of his voting base is not affluent. I have seen more rusty piece of shit cars with big W stickers on them than I care to mention. I always want to ask them: What the hell has Bush done to better your life?
The second thing is the Iraq War situation. It really is a quagmire and it appears that we will be there for years. The war has ruined the economy, even though they keep telling us it is growing strong.
Just a guess. Maybe they are just sheeple...following whatever they think is the popular trend at the moment.

[babylonsister]

16. The response to Katrina is unforgiveable, and the state of DHS

is frightening. Had I not already been swayed, their inaction would have made me turn the corner.

[wookie294]

18. I believe Bush would STILL win the election if it were held today

:argh:

[Conker]

20. I laugh, but that's probably true (that's how bad America is now).

[Mend]

28. not if he was running against Bill Clinton....go look at

tonight's AOL poll: Clinton 67%....bush 37%

[The_Casual_Observer]

19. It all started when he began messing with Social Security.

His poll numbers went down in tandem with the support for his "plan" and never recovered.

[MichiganVote]

21. The slide began w/Schaivo

[OnionPatch]

23. I think it's all these things

We've been complaining about him for five years but we're all politically active and interested. So many Americans are apolitical (I think many Independents tend to be disinterested in politics) and the realization that these guys are just plain corrupt has just taken this long to catch up to them. One or the other of these issues hit home with them and they started noticing the other screwed-up stuff and talking about it to each other and then it becomes a snowball effect. Too bad it took so long.

[beyurslf]

24. Katrina=3.00/gallon for gas.

Most people were shocked by images of Katrina and realizing that was an American city in ruins there. And when they started paying 3 bucks for a gallon of gas.... Everything else you named was icing.

[Mend]

27. Right-wingers I know were startled by Cindy Sheehan and

then slammed by Katrina....they feel the gas prices are manipulated and voila, the light bulb went on.

[SammyWinstonJack]

29. makes one wonder how he *won* in '04, doesn't it? I mean, really?

How did he fall from grace so quickly, just one year later? :eyes: Something stinky this way comes!

[JAbuchan08]

32. Wasn't he already in the forties in mid January?

it seemed as if he was below 50% practically the day after the election. He got a couple of boosts but it seemed like it was just a slow fall.

[EC]

30. I do think that small business owners

and well to do people are beginning to feel the pinch on the health insurance issue and the cost in relation to the oil (not just gas, but all that goes into it)

I know personally of several business owners around here that have finally had to use their health insurance and had problems the whole way through - having to fight just to get what they were paying for and also realizing they couldn't afford to give it to their employees anymore...Then there are the ones that relied on plastics, many small businesses are specialty packaging, or parts places and rely on plastic products and are being hit with supply problems and are beginning to panic....so....chip, chip, chip....

[BJW]

31. and don't forget Schaivo farce

while it didn't plunge the numbers permanently at the time, it gave people an ability to make a direct contrast

--one white brain-dead girl--special session of Congress, calls to kill activist judges, etc.,

--thousands of abandonded black people and poor people--yawn....