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What % of the "no" votes in the recall voted for Bustamante?

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Taxi Driver Donating Member (142 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-09-03 03:51 PM
Original message
What % of the "no" votes in the recall voted for Bustamante?
And what % of the "no" votes abstained from the second part of the ballot?
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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-09-03 03:55 PM
Response to Original message
1. I hope there are # crunchers out there that are working on .....
all the questions regarding the recall election. I don't think they even have firm #'s yet on how many absentee and provisional ballots were cast.
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Taxi Driver Donating Member (142 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-09-03 03:56 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Aren't there any estimates or projections?
We know that Schwarzenegger beat Davis 55% to 45%, so there must be some estimates at least.
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TakebackAmerica Donating Member (782 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-09-03 03:56 PM
Response to Original message
2. Good question.
I don't know whether they were a enough to beat the Barbarian.
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0rganism Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-09-03 04:38 PM
Response to Original message
4. Looking at the numbers...
Edited on Thu Oct-09-03 04:51 PM by 0rganism
Cruz got 2,434,776 votes.  "No recall" got 3,562,894
votes.  If we were to assume that all Cruz votes were also No
votes, the answer is slightly over 2/3.  

While I would hazard that the chances of someone voting
"Yes,Cruz" or "No,no one" are relatively
small, looking at cross-correlation of exit polls is the only
way to tell for sure. So I looked at the (LA) Times exit poll
page, and it sucked.  There was no real analysis provided. 
And I even registered to see that crap.  Ugh.  Told 'em I
lived in American Samoa, so pbbbt! 

So it's over to the media consortium data, to see what the
Gnomes of Zurich were able to concoct this time around.  And
it's slightly more thorough, if not in a very legible format. 
So here's roughly the numbers you wanted: 
---
If these had been the only two candidates for governor on the
ballot today, for whom would you have voted?
                                total Yes  No
Cruz M. Bustamante                38% 11%  89% 
Arnold Schwarzenegger             53% 90%  10% 
Would not have voted for governor  9% 38%  62% 

Recall by Replacement vote
Yes - Bustamante                   3%   *   * 
Yes - Schwarzenegger              41% 100%  0% 
Yes - Other/No Vote               12% 100%  0% 
No - Bustamante                   30% 0%  100% 
No - Schwarzenegger                4% 0%  100% 
No - Other/No Vote                10% 0%  100% 
---

These are taken from
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/recallexitpoll.html

And you won't even have to register! 

So you can see that the original estimate was about right,
about 2/3 of no voters also voted for Bustamante.  (30/44 =~
2/3) 

We also can look at the other/no vote sums, and see some facts
emerge.  About 22% of the voters voted for "other or no
one", and we know from the returns that McClintock got
13%, Camejo 3%, and all others combined for about 3%.  That
leaves about 3% who could have voted either yes or no on the
recall and not voted for a candidate.  
That's my take, anyway.
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