36,000 people will die in America from flu this year. Are you concerned?

[NNN0LHI]

Not from bird flu. Human flu. Just like every year for the past 10 years 36,000 people will die right here in America and no one seems to bat an eyelash. Notice the media hardly ever mentions it? But mention bird flu that has killed less than 100 people worldwide over the past several years and everyone goes completely ape shit. I don't get it?

Don

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/sciencemedicine/story/3A5E28D219B30C288625708C0015FB16?OpenDocument

<snip>Five percent to 20 percent of Americans get the flu in any given season, which can begin as early as October and last until late May. Every year, about 36,000 people die and about 200,000 people are hospitalized.

[sarcasmo]

1. The FEAR that this Bird flu creates is amazing, it's just like TERRA.

[ElectroPrincess]

4. You got that right!

Besides, our SELFISH drug companies won't sponsor squat unless they are sure of big profits. Therefore, I hold a Serenity Prayer view. Why get all "angst" at something we have absolutely NO control over.

What is most important now IMO for *national security* is to not take our eyes off of the ball. These corrupt republican leaders MUST be charged and prosecuted. We can pressure our gutless Democratic leaders to do that and I WILL.

[Mr_Spock]

85. Just a natural result of the same sort of randomness assoc. w/evolution.

Nothing to fear - simply a matter of natural selection. Some bad molecular combinations WILL occur - especially where they keep chickens & pigs near each other in China. It's nothing to fear - it's simply a reality. A few million dead is a relatively mild result - why worry?

[REP]

2. I'm Concerned Every Year

I'm in the high-risk category, meaning I could easily die from the flu (and I'm only 40) so yes, I'm well aware of the stats and I'm getting my shot Monday!

[Skittles]

3. I'm not considered "high risk"

but when I get it boy does it hit me HARD. :(

[REP]

5. Wanna Borrow My MedicAlert Bracelet?

I haven't heard "shortage" yet, but even the drugstores around here are limiting shots to the high-risk people already. I have the feeling this will be a hard year.

[Skittles]

12. see I skipped it last year

if there's a shortage I'll weather it (I'd feel guilty getting a shot if the high-risk folk weren't getting their shots) but damn it does a number on me, sheer freaking misery for days :o

Surely we would have heard news about impending shortages? I mean, this stuff is allocated - it was supposed bad batches last year right? Are they suspecting a repeat?

[YouthInAsia]

97. LOL!!!!!!!!!!

[NNN0LHI]

6. I'm 50 and also considered "high risk" and I don't get overly concerned

I might get a flu shot? I might not? I bet I have been bitten by hundreds of mosquitoes which local tests have been found to carry West Nile in my county. That could kill me too but I am not going to stop going outside over it. Or cover myself in DEET every time I walk out the door either.

Don

[REP]

9. The Flu is Highly Contagious; West Nile is Still Rather Exotic

I don't get worried about West Nile nor do I stay inside due to fear of getting sick, but I do take common-sense precautions, such as getting vaccinated. I'm not in the "could die from flu" category but the "certain to die from flu" category.

[pitohui]

112. west nile is not contagious at all (my nitpick)

you do not get west nile from ppl w. west nile you only get it by being bitten by an infected mosquito & supposedly 999 times out of 1,000 you do not have symptoms even then

i lost a friend, age 17, to st. louis encephilitis, i know what this disease complex can do, but we can't live our life indoors

most ppl will never show any symptoms from la crosse, st. louis, west nile etc.

there is no using stressing abt it, you have a good attitude & i think you are right to protect yrself where you can

[madrchsod]

11. what happened last year to the "great flu "

that was going to kill millions? never happened. flu kills the people with weak immune systems do to other illnesses or being very young with no exposure to any flu. i`m 58 and the only flu strain i worry about are the ones that are older than i am because i have no immunity to them.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

21. Did someone tell you that the "great flu" was going to strike......

...last year? Did anyone tell you that it was going to strike this year? How about next year?

All we've been told about the next pandemic is that conditions are right for it to start, regardless of when it starts. Migratory birds are spreading the H5N1 flu variant worldwide, and domestic animals are being infected at a rapid rate.

By the way, if you think the Avian Flu is just like any other flu, you would be sadly mistaken. The stuff percolating in Asia is killing about 50% of those it infects...a far cry from the sub-1% killed by the so-called normal flu. Even the terrible 1918 Influenza Pandemic didn't kill more than 5% worldwide.

The reason for the high death rate is the fact that humans don't have any natural immunity to the H5N1 Avian Flu strains.

One more comment...do you recall the recent breakdown in the social, legal, and political structures of New Orleans due to the effects of Katrina? Try wrapping your mind around what could happen if the Avian Flu begins infecting people and the U. S. medical/health/hospital system breaks down nationwide.

[knitter4democracy]

40. There are new strains every year, though.

The flu does kill people with weaker immune systems, that's true. It also kills people your age who seemed to be healthy. Just ask my husband. He's concerned about all of his patients.

They warn us every year because all it takes is one vector--one sick patient with a highly contagious version of the disease--on one plane flight to infect enough people to start an epidemic. They're watching a couple strains that are close to mutating to a highly contagious form, and that's why the experts are nervous.

[Divernan]

29. Don, please get your flu shot!

If you are high risk, that is serious business. You are a very valuable member of DU and start a lot of significant and important threads. People like you are needed! So don't start with the macho 'tude, and get that shot!

[Mr_Spock]

87. Note that the flu pandemic killed young people in their 20's & 30's

A flu pandemic a completely different situation. It is dangerous because it DOESN'T necessarily kill only those who are "high risk".

Edit: as to this post - I get a flu shot and I'm not even high risk - I simply don't need that kind of damage to my body and it depresses me.

[KitchenWitch]

14. I am also high risk and in my early 40s

The regular human flu scares the shit out of me.

I have two kids who are also high risk.

[REP]

19. If You Read The Repsonses on this Thread, We're "Fear Mongerers"

Knowing that we are at extremely high risk of dying from regular ol' flu is getting the oddest responses from a few posters!

Flu shots are being given out in my city already at drugstores and are being limited to high-risk patients. I haven't heard anything about a shortage of regular flu vaccine, so I wonder why the usual come-one come-all free-for-all is being discouraged so early in the season.

[KitchenWitch]

20. Yeah, we also have vaccine available for high risk only

I am not a fear monger, I am realistic...I have severe lung problems and no spleen (which means I have a compromised immune system).

Toward the end of the month, the shots become available for everyone. My guess is that they want to be assured that all the high risk people that want the vaccine get it. I was lucky to get one last year, I went to three different community flu shot clinics (my regular doctor did not have it). All of them had run out of vaccine. I finally got it at the fourth place I went.

[REP]

22. I Was Lucky - No Problems Last Year

I'm very immunocompromised (though I am spleenoriffic, fortunately for me) and I got jabbed last year about this time without a problem, but I'm a Kaiser member and they buy in bulk.

I think people don't realize that the regular old flu is bad news to the elderly and the ill.

[KitchenWitch]

24. It was crazy last year

I showed up hours before the clinics would open, and apparently some of the clinics only got like 50 doses, so anyone in line after #50 were sent away.

I am going to the drug store today to get mine.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

25. Normal flu vaccines won't help against Avian Flu because....

...we don't know which variant of H5N1 will eventually begin to easily spread from human-to-human.

[REP]

27. I Think This Thread is About Regular Flu

Since it says in the header than 36,000 people die of it yearly.

[KitchenWitch]

28. I am aware of that.

But I can protect myself from the human flu. Yes, it would be nice to have a vaccine for avian flu, but there is not one right now. Yes, avian flu scares me even more than human flu, but there is nothing I can do about it.

I can do something about the human flu.

[pitohui]

113. kitchenwitch you ain't gonna get avian flu

right now i'm too lazy to look up the number of chickens destroyed in the usa every yr to prevent the spread of avian flu -- but the us dept. of agriculture is v. aggressive abt containing this disease

there is a $$$ motive to be that way

we have really aggressive protocols for containing this disease, i am not even aware of ONE poultry worker, much less a civilian, in the usa who has ever contracted avian flu

there may be some, but it would be VERY rare

look it makes world headlines when a poultry worker in vietnam gets avian flu

please don't be scared, life is too short

good people are aware of this issue

this disease will be aggressively contained, remember SARS?

[knitter4democracy]

41. They told my husband that the stockpiles are still low.

The head partner of the practice put in a larger order for the vaccine this year and was told that it will be shipped at some point but that the stockpiles are still low for this time of year.

[Individualist]

86. I'm also high risk

and age 62, but I'm not scared. While I do take precautions during flu season, IMO worrying all the time about what might happen would create additional health problems.

[Ladyhawk]

102. Is a person with regular Type 2 diabetes considered "high risk"? n/t

[KitchenWitch]

108. Yes Ladyhawk

Any form of diabetes is a risk factor.

[pitohui]

114. i'd say ask yr doctor

i know that type 1 diabetes is immune-challenged, my teen-aged friend who died of st. louis encephalitis had childhood diabetes

that doesn't mean type 2 would be at risk for the west nile complex or for flu, i know you need to watch yr heart & blood pressure tho but you prob. already know that

ask yr doctor if you need the shot, i get the impression every case of type 2 diabetes is different!

[pitohui]

111. if you're high risk do get yr shot

i would never want to discourage you from doing whatever you can to protect yrself

however the vaccine developed ea. yr is not a guaranteed protection, it is a guess abt which way the strain will mutate

i am not high risk, so it is silly for me to spend time & money on the slight chance that the vaccine will protect me from something

you are high risk, therefore the odds are different for you

i don't know if there is a shortage but there is a tiny risk of side effects from any vaccine, it may be that for those of us who do not have risk factors, they have decided to discourage us because it isn't worth even that tiny risk for the small amt of increased protection we would get

do what you need to do for yr specific case, a lot of us give advice based on a general or average case, but you have more information abt your specific case so you can make a targeted decision

be well

stay well

we don't want to lose anybody

[TomClash]

7. Latest Freeper answer:

"People die all the time."

[Skittles]

13. typical compassionate conservative

:puke:

[knitter4democracy]

43. That person's obviously not seen much.

If they had watched a loved one die from influenza in the ICU, stuggling for air, they'd think differently.

Of course, with all conservatives, they change their tune when it gets personal.

[TomClash]

74. You know I used to think that

and I've seen it - they don't!

For all the BS about the "right to life" they have an unusually callous disregard for it.

[bananas]

8. 3/4 of them are over 75

At least in Michigan:

"In Michigan, 74
percent of pneumonia and
influenza deaths occurred in
individuals aged 75 or older
in 2001."

http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:rtUdpkVqrS0J:www.michigan.gov/documents/PneumoniaFeb00_10197_7.PDF+flu+deaths+age&hl=en

[REP]

10. The Rest Are The Very Young and the Chronically Ill

In other words, people with incomplete or compromised immune systems.

[bananas]

15. "90 percent of those deaths are among people 65 and older"

I'm trying to find some statistics without much luck.
You'd think there would be a simple table of deaths by age group.
I can't find it, not even on cdc.gov.
Maybe I'm going blind?
Here's two interesting articles:
- 90% of deaths are age 65 and up
- it's more important to vaccinate kids, because they spread it.

"Accord­ing to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, influenza - or the "flu" - is responsible for more than 36,000 deaths per year in the United States; 90 percent of those deaths are among people 65 and older."
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=15293653&BRD=1402&PAG=461&dept_id=173492&rfi=6

"Current immunization policies recommend universal flu vaccination for children aged 6-23 months, but shots are advised for older children only if they have high-risk medical conditions. New data compiled by researchers at Children's Hospital Boston and Harvard Medical School, reported in October 1 issue of the American Journal of Epidemiology, suggest that otherwise healthy 3- and 4-year-olds drive flu epidemics, a pattern that may warrant consideration when formulating immunization policy."
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/09/050930082855.htm

[ElectroPrincess]

16. Oh please!?!

Keep it up ... like CSPAN Journal is being the most inane entity first focusing on "Gun Control" then "Killer Flu" ... probably next segment they'll get "all weird" on the "Dog Flu".

Don't get me wrong, I'm very concerned and I love K9s.

But here's the point ... these important issues are also issues that will make you "neurotic" if you choose to hyper-focus on. Be prepared as much as you can, get a flu shot, then LET IT GO.

Can you NOT see that the whorish USA national media (to include CSPAN) are doing their BEST to scare the bee-jesus out of the sheeple.

Please stay focused on Republican Corruption? Why? If we start to focus on the stuff that makes us neurotic, we will NOT be able to hold criminals like Tom Delay accountable.

Best Example: Look how ole' Kenny boy has completely slipped under the radar?

Please be concerned but don't "get obsessed?"

[REP]

18. Huh? Facts is Facts

That's who dies of the run of the mill flu - the elderly, the chronically ill and the very young. No fear-mongering there - just facts. Please stay focused on what is actually written before going off!

[ElectroPrincess]

91. I think we should follow each other's advice ...

Many of my relatives have chronic illnesses ... I guess that, I too, have a sense of peace and serenity - Face it, if a pandemic hits, there's not much one can do but wear a mask and pray?

No, I have a heart, and hope we can all meet each other in Heaven. We don't get out of this life ---> ALIVE anyway. :hi:

[KitchenWitch]

23. Excuse me

I am not over "obsessed" as you put it about the flu. I am a realist. Regular flu, if I catch it, is likely to result in my death. Yes, I get concerned when I hear of vaccine shortages. This is because my life is on the line.

Yes there is corruption in our political system, but I can not do anything to fight it if I am pushing up daisies.

Have a heart and some compassion for those of us with chronic conditions that MUST pay attention to things like the "run of the mill" flu.

[ElectroPrincess]

95. But again, that's the point - other than a flu vaccine, we have NO

Not an hint of CONTROL. And not just folks like you in "high risk" groups, but *EVERYBODY* is at risk for death with regard to a pandemic.

You can NOT fight viruses with antibiotics.

We must just pray it doesn't happen or do our best to protect ourselves and families (moving to Alaska), should a pandemic hit.

But no writhing around and hoping that "Our Dear Leaders" (both Democratic as well as Republican) will come through and *demand* that the bloated and criminal drug companies study to make a vaccine for this is a ROYAL WASTE OF TIME.

[bananas]

32. Stop watching TV!

That is what will get you obsessed!
How do you think they get viewers?
By getting them obsessed, so they won't change the channel.

Most of the posts seem pretty reasonable.
A number of us never get flu shots, and rarely get the flu.
Some are in high-risk groups and for them it's a real concern.
Some are in a low-risk category, but get a bad flu every year if they don't get the vaccine.

[knitter4democracy]

37. So my husband's neurotic for worrying about his patients?

The medical community is quite concerned, and they're upset that we don't have enough vaccine (because Pharma won't make enough--not enough money in it, they whine). Just read some of my hubby's medical journals, and you'll see why people are concerned.

Kenny Boy is still in the news occasionally. At least, I've seen references to him, and people here in Michigan are upset about that, too. You're right that there are a million things coming at us to keep us scared and silent, shutting down in fear, but the flu is something we need to work on. If you think the Gulf Coast got it bad, just imagine what a major outbreak would do.

[nickinSTL]

17. not concerned for myself

I've never gotten a flu shot, and haven't had flu in...decades?

I get colds, sinus infections, and not many of those lately...but not the flu. I'm not really in a high-risk category (32 and fairly healthy)

[KayLaw]

26. My son's doctor said that yesterday

We were talking about meningitis vaccines and he said they were limiting them to college students and I mentioned the bird flu. He started ranting about how unprepared we are and France can only produce just so many vaccines, then mentioned an article in Time and ended up by shrugging and saying, So we're all going to die of the flu.

Sheesh! And my husband accuses ME of being a gloom and doomer because of peak oil. . .

[knitter4democracy]

44. All the docs we know are saying the same thing.

You should see the infectious disease guys. They are reading daily updates, chewing their nails.

[HawkerHurricane]

30. The ten leading causes of death...

Influenza makes #7 when combined with pnuemonia.
Heart Disease is #1.
Cancer is #2.
That's funny... it seems Terrorism doesn't make the top 10. Nor do illegal drugs, murder (although suicide does for males...)or automobile accidents.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005110.html

oops, forgot the link.

And a correction: Automobile accidents are part of 'unintentional injuries' and make #5.

[KitchenWitch]

33. Thank you for that

really!

[bananas]

34. And a big cause of #1 and #2?

Cigarettes.

[HawkerHurricane]

39. Yep.

Tabbacco Addiction is a major killer.

[bananas]

46. I used a bad flu to quit smoking

I had gone cold turkey many times, and knew the first three days were the worst. I caught a bad flu, I lost the urge to smoke, but the third day, I started feeling better, and felt like smoking again. Instead, I kept an open beer bottle in each hand, and took a large gulp whenever I wanted a smoke.
Not recommended for alcoholics or people who don't work at home.

[HawkerHurricane]

49. Interesting method...

My parents were both 2 packs a day smokers. Somehow I can't picture them using your method.

Mom quit after my youngest was born. Something about her coughing while she was holding her. I don't know what technique she used.

Dad quit shortly after we took up backpacking. Something about him dying and me not breathing hard. He went out and bought the cheapest, nastiest cigars he could find, and when he couldn't stand the craving, he would smoke one. Took him about a month to quit.

[ElectroPrincess]

96. Then don't smoke /eom

[Zynx]

47. Accidents in general are #5 at 106,000+ every year.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lcod.htm

The number I've always heard for auto accidents is about 42,000 to 50,000 which would put it, by itself, in the top ten killers.

[HawkerHurricane]

50. I mentioned automobile accidents...

because I thought they were in the top ten and was surprised. I guess I messed up.

And of course, I mentioned Drugs and Terrorism because I KNEW that neither was a real danger.

[Zynx]

57. That's okay. It isn't obvious.

[HawkerHurricane]

52. ack! Forgot the link!

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005110.html

sorry.

And auto accidents are combined with 'all accidents' to make #5.

[KitchenWitch]

31. Kicked and Recommended

:kick:

[knitter4democracy]

35. We are in our house.

My husband's a busy internist here in town, and he's the one dealing with influenza on the front lines. He ran many codes in residency that were influenza patients, and he's seen what it can do. He never looks forward to flu season.

He stays up nights trying to figure out how our city with its small set of resources will be able to handle an epidemic, too. He knows the usual flu season stretches our resources thin and worries that everything would fall apart if the numbers went any higher. Even with immunizations, many still get very, very sick and even die.

[bananas]

36. Kids spread the flu; If we abort all the kids, we could eliminate the flu

See, there are easy answers!

[KitchenWitch]

38. channeling Bill Bennett this AM are you?

:rofl:

[knitter4democracy]

42. That's one option, I guess.

:)

Soylent Green, if properly sterilized, is another as well. ;)

[bananas]

80. Oh no, if there's a quarantine we may resort to that! n/t

[Zynx]

45. And tens of thousands will be killed by drunk drivers and many more

in regular traffic accidents.

[KitchenWitch]

48. See post #30

Auto accidents do not make the top ten.

[HawkerHurricane]

51. Actually, they do...

I made a mistake. They're combined with 'all unintentional injuries' at #5.

[KitchenWitch]

54. oops!

Thanks for correcting us.

The fact is, flu with pneumonia is #7 (flu being a respiratory tract infection), and lower lung conditions is #4. Anyone with a chronic lower lung condition is at extremely high risk for the flu. By sheer numbers the combination between the two would bring it up to #3 on the list. Which is ahead of accidental death.

[HawkerHurricane]

55. Well, if you combine things...

of course the numbers go up.

How many of the people counted as dying of flu and/or pneumonia also had lower lung conditions (and vice versa)? Maybe if we combine them there's some overlap and the number would go down (instead of counting them twice, I mean).

How many people had one of the other conditions and committed suicide?

[Zynx]

56. Ahhh...Now we are into deep statistical analysis.

[KitchenWitch]

60. I would guess that it would still be #3

But who knows. All I know is that I am getting my flu shot today. Because I am one with a chronic lower lung condition.

[HawkerHurricane]

62. By all means, get your flu shot.

My comment was more of a 'how do they count the death, anyway?' sort of thing.

My Grandfather died in a auto accident. He was legally drunk. He also had a heart attack.
Technically, he died of the heart attack. He would have survived (easily) the auto accident. But how was he counted?

(For your peace of mind: he was alone in the car, was on a country road and ran into the drainage ditch. No one else was injured.)

(And this is my Mom's dad, not my Dad's dad. Hi Dad!)

[KitchenWitch]

63. I am sure there are protocols for how deaths are registered

But I am not an ME nor do I play one on television!

My maternal grandfather died (I believe) as a direct result of alcoholism, he'd had cirrhosis of the liver for years before he died, but his actual cause of death was a stroke.

[bananas]

69. Reminds me of an old joke from someone's sig line

"I'd rather die peacefully in my sleep like my Grandfather,
than screaming in terror like his passengers."

I wanted to get the punch line right,
and found an interesting web page about it:
http://www.horrible.demon.co.uk/die_peacefully_in_my_sleep.htm

[depakid]

53. You don't get it because you don't understand virology

The people at WHO and the UN do- as do public health officials in every other Western country, who have not only issued similar warnings, but put together detailed (and expensive) pandemic contingency plans.

See. e.g.

http://www.moh.govt.nz/birdflu

http://www.dh.gov.uk/PolicyAndGuidance/EmergencyPlanning/PandemicFlu/fs/en

[NNN0LHI]

58. Our media doesn't report the 36,000 deaths from human flu every year...

...because I don't understand virology? OK.

Don

[Zynx]

59. Makes perfect sense. ;-)

[KitchenWitch]

61. Well golly, Don, you had better personally get a better understanding

of virology. It is your responsibility now, so that the media will properly report this!

:eyes:

[depakid]

105. I guess I misunderstood your point

There's been so much naysaying re: the potential pandemic that I may have jumped to conclusions.

Yes, influenza kills- and it doesn't get the respect it deserves from a lot of people (those who've had a bad cold, for example- and call it the "flu"). Ask someone who's had a bad strain, and they'll tell you it ain't nothing like a cold.

What's different about this situation is that the virus (and presumably the variant that'll break out) kills people throughout the distribution curve- not just on the age peripheries.

Healthy people in the prime of life typically don't die from a nasty A-strain (although they can if not properly treated die from secondary infections). It also has a current case fatality rate hovering around 50%, compared with 3% or so for a bad A-strain.

[NNN0LHI]

106. Probably wasn't you fault about the misunderstanding

Many of my posts are not as precise as I hope them to be. Sorry.

Don

[Darth Lib]

64. I just had it. And it was BAD!

I thought it was food poisonong.

It felt exactly like that

[KitchenWitch]

65. Influenza, or flu for short is a respiratory illness

What you had is often called the flu, but is likely a stomach virus. Real flu is not anything like food poisoning.

[ClassicDem]

66. Avian Flu is very serious.

36,000 people dying only makes up about 0.5% of the number of infections while Avian Flu is at a 50% mortality rate. My real fear is if the Avian Flu mutates or combines with the Human Flu then we are really screwed.

[KitchenWitch]

68. Yes avian flu is bad

But I think the point the OP was trying to make was that 36,000 a year die of the regular human flu and this is never reported. Remember the SARS thing a few years ago? The disease was discovered in November of 2002, and worldwide deaths from SARS as of May 17, 2003 were 623. That is a worldwide figure.

36,000 annually in the US alone die of regular run of the mill flu.

[ClassicDem]

70. Again SARS had a 10% mortality rate.

Human Flue less than 1%. These diseases if wide spread could kill millions, the flu epidemic of 1918 killed 20 million people. And I think it's great that the news reports about something that has a 50% chance of killing me.

Plus not sure what news channel every one watches but I hear every year on the news about flu season, get vaccine, elderly most vulnerable blah, blah, blah.

[KitchenWitch]

71. yes, by all means let us ignore the fact the 36,000 die each year of flu

The point, again, was that those deaths are IGNORED, not reported and otherwise swept under the rug. The only time you hear about regular human flu is at the beginning of flu season when the vaccine drives are happening, unless there is a shortage of vaccine. You NEVER hear about the death rates later in the year.

[G_j]

73. I think the whole reason

for the media attention right now is the UN report. Otherwise, I doubt if it would be much of a 'news item'.

[knitter4democracy]

98. It depends on what you read.

It's all over my husband's medical journals. The medical community deals with it all year and is constantly working for better ways to deal with it. My husband has had patients die from it, and he's had to tell their family members that their loved one just died from influenza.

I think if everyone else isn't hearing about it, it's probably because of the media's short attention span, short memory, and personalized media choices.

[KitchenWitch]

107. Yep

I know it is published in the medical journals, but I also know that most folks do not read those journals.

An aside: my daughter got a very severe case of RSV well after the period for which she would be at a high risk for it (she was 2-1/2 years old, was not premature or underweight at all.) We spent 6 days in the hospital with her in an isolation room. She came so close to not making it. I shudder to think of it to this day.

[knitter4democracy]

115. Wow.

That sounds so very scary. I only had to deal with my son having some intestinal virus and needing to be in overnight for fluids to scare me pretty badly. I'll never forget how they had trouble with the IV and he was so out of it that he just wanted to cuddle and go to sleep. I cannot imagine how awful it must have been to be with your daughter through that.

[Silverhair]

67. Very simple.

Regular flu is extremely contagious, but not very lethal. Further, it kills mostly high risk people who have health problems already. So 36K deaths on a population base of 300M is about one in 10K. If 10% of the general population get the flu, then that is a mortality rate of .1%. That is a tenth of a percent. So it is not a great worry. That is routine.

The problem with Avian Flu is that the mortality rate is staggering. Between 50 to 70%. At this time, Avian Flu does not EASILY jump from human to human. There have been some H-H cases noted, but only a few. If the virus mutates to an easily contagious form (If you knew virology you would know how very likely that is to happen.)then it would be off and running through humanity just like the regular flu does, and with a high lethality.

It has the potential of greatly reducing the human population of the entire earth. Regular flu doesn't have that potential.

Read John M Barry's book about the 1918 flu epidemic. It has an excellent chapter on the flu virus, what it is, and how it works.

H5N1, the Avian Flu, infects pigs as well as birds. Pigs can also catch regular human flu quite easily. If some pig get both at the same time, then the two viruses will make many combinations, and some of them will be really bad news for humanity.

The hope is that when it mutates to H-H form, it will also shed it's extreme lethality. But even if it drops to a "mere" 1% lethality, it will still be ten time worse than regular flu.

[crispini]

72. Very good post!

Well said.

[NNN0LHI]

75. Heres an expert from John M Barry's book about the 1918 flu epidemic

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6315717/site/newsweek/%20

The 1918 flu—variant H1N1—spread with terrifying speed; in six days at a single Army base, Barry writes, the hospital census went from 610 to more than 4,000. It killed with devastating swiftness: pedestrians literally collapsed in the street; people woke up healthy and were dead by nightfall. It attacked multiple organs in the body, but always the respiratory system first, laying waste to the defenses by which the body keeps pathogens out of the lungs. Most victims succumbed to a secondary infection of bacterial pneumonia, for which there was no treatment in 1918. But in other cases, the virus was fatal in itself. Multiplying explosively throughout the respiratory tract, it provoked an immune response so furious that it devastated the lung's delicate tissues. And it was those deaths that explained H1N1's unique terror. Influenza typically kills the very young and the old, whose immune systems are too weak to fight it off, but Spanish flu killed young men and women in the prime of life.


I don't need to be a virologist to know that most of the people who died during the 1918 flu pandemic did not die from the flu. They majority died from secondary infections of bacterial pneumonia for which three days of antibiotics that weren't around in 1918 will clear up in most cases these days. I wonder how many people would have actually died had antibiotics been widely available in 1918? Would there have even been a Pandemic in 1918 had antibiotics been available then? We will never know.

Don

[Silverhair]

76. And from your own post:

The 1918 flu—variant H1N1—spread with terrifying speed; in six days at a single Army base, Barry writes, the hospital census went from 610 to more than 4,000. It killed with devastating swiftness: pedestrians literally collapsed in the street; people woke up healthy and were dead by nightfall. It attacked multiple organs in the body, but always the respiratory system first, laying waste to the defenses by which the body keeps pathogens out of the lungs. Most victims succumbed to a secondary infection of bacterial pneumonia, for which there was no treatment in 1918. But in other cases, the virus was fatal in itself. Multiplying explosively throughout the respiratory tract, it provoked an immune response so furious that it devastated the lung's delicate tissues. And it was those deaths that explained H1N1's unique terror. Influenza typically kills the very young and the old, whose immune systems are too weak to fight it off, but Spanish flu killed young men and women in the prime of life.

There were so many of those cases that it cause a sharp spike in the mortality charts.

[NNN0LHI]

77. Yes because there were no antibiotics available then

I would hazard to guess that our present day mortality rate from complications associated to human flu would spike if antibiotic use was abruptly discontinued too.

Don

[Silverhair]

78. Antibiotics are ineffective against viruses. NT

[NNN0LHI]

81. I have been talking about complications from the flu here to you

Did you forget?

Don

[Silverhair]

82. And the part that I put in bold print was direct flu deaths.

Direct flu deaths are from the virus itself, and could NOT have been prevented by antibiotics. And there were a LOT of direct flu deaths.

Barry makes that very clear in his book. May I suggest that you read the ENTIRE book, instead of just that one paragraph?

BTW - Have you heard? Antibiotics are losing their effectiveness against bacteria as the bugs evolve immunity to ABs.

[NNN0LHI]

88. What does lot mean when you say there were a LOT of direct flu deaths?

Does he break it down any further than "Most victims succumbed to a secondary infection of bacterial pneumonia, for which there was no treatment in 1918"? Because that means at least 51% of those who died in 1918 would likely not have died in todays world with antibiotics. It would be interesting to know how many more would have lived? Does he say? And by the way I am not trying to say no one died from the flu either. I am sure millions died from the flu itself. But we are living in different times almost a hundred years later.

Don

[Silverhair]

90. Impossible to determine.

Have you read the entire book? Have you read about the social breakdown in 1918? Bodies were not examined to find out if it was the flu or a secondary infection. There were just too many of them. Bodies were lain on porches and not picked up for weeks in many cases.

BTW - Quarantine WORKED. Some places shut themselves off and turned away outsiders at gunpoint. It worked. They had no flu and no deaths.

[NNN0LHI]

92. I admit that I haven't read the whole book

Due to the fact that the number of deaths directly attributed to the flu can never be accurately determined I wouldn't think the 1918 pandemic is the best example to use to predict what would occur during the next one...if there is one during our lifetimes. Though it might give us an idea what to expect I wouldn't think comparing the two would be all that beneficial. Almost a hundred years later and with all the advances in medicine since then. I am sure it is a good book though.

Don

[Silverhair]

104. Check out this site:

http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/CID/journal/issues/v33n8/001674/001674.text.html?erFrom=-986132144418802725Guest

<http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/CID/journal/issues/v33n8/001674/001674.fg1.html>

If I have done it right there will be a chart of excess fatalities charted by age. If not, go to the link. (OK, I did it wrong. You will have to go to the link to look at the chart.)

The greatest excess mortalities was in the group that had the healthiest immune systems. Those with the weaker immune systems, who would have been at greater risk died in fewer numbers.

Those with the least ability to fight off a secondary bacterial infection died in fewer numbers. Those with the greatest ability, died in greater numbers. So the flu itself was extremely deadly to the healthy immune systems. The flu provoked an over response in the immune system that destroyed the lungs, and did so with amazing speed. Those with weaker immune systems were not able to mount the overreaction and were able to fight off the flu, but many died of opportunistic infections, mostly bacterial pneumonia.

This supports that the flu was very deadly, in of itself.

Sadly, we are not much better equipped today to fight that kind of flu than we were then. Flu is an tough adversary. It mutates rapidly and is increasing it's mutation speed. That is a natural result of the use of vaccines. Those strains of flu that can mutate most rapidly survive.

[ClassicDem]

84. Same could be said about Avian Flu

Without the use of Antibiotics the mortality rate would probably be close to 100%.

[Silverhair]

89. Now THAT IS scarry.

In a pandemic, sufficient antibiotics will NOT be available in most of the world.

[triguy46]

79. From a public health or political standpoint?

Most who die are the elderly and infirm, those least able to obtain quality health care, or sadly, too weak to fend off the complications. But, life happens. I think the issue is, (forgetting the bird flu hysteria), how many deaths would be avoidable if we had universal access to high quality health care. That is a political issue, and related to public health in epidemiological sense. But ultimately, as long as health care is a privielge and not a right, unnecessary deaths will continue.

[knitter4democracy]

99. Amen and amen!!!

That's exactly right! People complain about Canada's system, but they have a higher life expectancy, lower maternal death rate, lower fetal death rate, and a much better system for epidemics like SARS or influenza.

[Mr_Spock]

83. We all know that flu takes out old folks. Flu pandemic is indiscriminate

and will take out young as well as old...

[Must_B_Free]

93. 40,000 people will die from accidents on two lane highways

are you concerned? What can we do to stop it?

[Feron]

94. No.

The CDC lumps pneumonia and flu deaths together to create that big dramatic number. In 2002, only 753 people died from the flu.

Source:http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr52/nvsr52_13.pdf
Skip to page 16.

Basically Big Pharm wants to scare healthy people with no occupational risks into getting a shot that they don't need.

[knitter4democracy]

100. If the pneumonia is caused by influenza, that makes sense.

Pharma is all about money, that's true, but they aren't interested in vaccines (not enough money in them compared to drugs you have to take every day to survive and will pay top dollar for). If it were all for money, Pharma wouldn't make enough vaccine and would have trouble getting it where it needs to be quickly and whine about needing more government funding to subsidize their production and then rake in more money when people end up in the unit or on the med floor needing tons of meds to stay alive and fight off the infection. Oh, wait . . .

[Nikia]

101. High risk people should get vaccination

People who contract it should get antivirals that are now available to shorten the duration and severity of the disease. They should also rest at home during the illness so they will not spread it to others and their bodies can fight it better. They should be attentive to severe symptoms like high fever and severe respitory symptoms and seek medical attention if necessary. Most young healthy adults and school aged children can survive flu without lasting damage.
As others have mentioned, bird flu is more deadly, even to healthy young adults. There are also flu viruses that are more deadly than what we usually have. One of my coworkers had one of these rare flu viruses, luckily before she worked for our company, and was in ICU for a few days. That is a big concern in the case of a more deadly strain, medical care for the sick. Hospitals could not handle a few hundred extra flu patients per hospital, not to mention that they might be highly contagious and not be a strain that wasn't vaccinated against.

[mvd]

103. Yes - Bush and his cronies are in charge

They can't even handle regular flu outbreaks.

[kestrel91316]

109. Normal flu has a low mortality rate. Avian flu has a mortality rate so far

(in humans) of 50%, IIRC. It also has the potential to become much more able to spread among humans.

Ignore this little factoid at your own peril. Epidemiologists know what it means. And forewarned is forearmed.

[pitohui]

110. a little concerned but

having seen the effects of stomach cancer & alzheimer's there is a reason why pneumonia is called the old man's friend -- the complication of flu likely to cause death is pneumonia & it is most likely to affect the elderly

i've had pneumonia, & i suspect it would not be a bad way to go, i just wanted to sleep & sleep

we have to die of something

i do not think the flu vaccine does what it is advertised to do, i've had elders in my family get the vaccine & still get the flu, the vaccine is a "guess" at what strain will be going around & the guess ain't always right

there is a point at which i have to think the serenity prayer -- there are some things we can't do anything abt, the strength to identify them well there's the rub

on edit--i'm agreed w. yr comments on bird flu 1000 percent, it's all hype & fear mongering