Have We Lost California's Electoral Votes In 2004?

[arwalden]

My Republican brother thinks so. --- This morning, I received an email from him that he sent to me overnight. In his message he closes with a postscript needling of me and suggests that 2004 might not be in-the-bag for Democrats after all now that we can "see which direction California is leaning".

WTF?

Is this election a true indication of which direction California is leaning? Has California truly turned into a Republican stronghold? Is it the next Utah?

More importantly... is it the next FLORIDA? With Arnold "in power" does that more or less guarantee that Bush has an edge in that state?

For now, I'm going to quietly IGNORE my brother's little barb. He's baiting me and trying to get a reaction. Well, this message to you is my only reaction so far. I'm sure it will bug him more if I say nothing rather than join in his verbal sparring.

-- Allen

[La_Serpiente]

1. I seriously doubt it

I really doubt it.

New York has a Republican Governor and a Republican mayor for NYC, but they continually vote for Democrats for Presidnet. They also have a large Democratic delegation to Congress.

If anything, California is NOT in the bag for Bush or even close.

Well see more evidence coming out within the next couple of weeks, but based on the status of California now, I doubt it.

[rooboy]

2. When Arnie wakes up this morning...

he will realize that he's inherited a job repairing a 38bn deficit in George W Bush's America.

Given the economic and personal experience of * and Arnold, how optimistic would you be that California's going to vote Republican in 2004?

[arwalden]

3. I Hope You Two Are Correct...

I do anticipate (and fear) that Arnold will start whining about "the mess he 'inherited' from Davis" --- COMPLETELY ignoring the fact that these problems were thrown into Davis' lap as a DIRECT result of BUSH & Co.

[loudnclear]

13. But the Repubs and enery barons will ensure Arnie's success

Just as they ensured Davis failure ENRON and others will curtail their clandestine sabbatage of the energy situation in CA and make it work for Arnie.

The good news from this election could be that the Funddie RWingnuts are losing their grip on our politics. The real bad news is that they are losing their grip while AIPAC is increasing its grip.

[bearfartinthewoods]

22. i've been dying to say this for days but the guidlines didn't permit it.

can arnie role back wages and bennies? no
can arnie renegotiate the energy deal? no
can arnold remake the state constitution re" revenue raising? no

he's not gonna be able to do squat. the state will struggle on only now it will be the republican's fault.

i feel sorry for the CA dems, especially the ones who worked their tails off but this isn't really a bad thing for the party nationally.

[ozymandius]

33. Consider this point.

California is suffering under conditions that manifested under Republican initiatives. Deregulation in energy markets is chief among them.

If Gov. Groper plans to further those initiatives under the current climate of deregulation and high utility prices, how will any Republcan initiative (and for that matter any Bush initiative) be palatable ever?

Besides, there are two court cases against Enron worth $9Billion circulating through the system. If these cases are pulled and arbitration settles them for pennies on the dollar, then it would become painfully clear who has been hitting Californians over the head.

[bearfartinthewoods]

37. bingo!!!!

why not let them cook in their own juices rather than have a dem sweat it out!

[chaumont58]

4. Could be, but I don't think so

I think the results are more about personality than ideology. About a celebrity promising solutions he wont be able to deliver versus a colorless, odorless,tastless career politician who previous winnings were more about his poor competition than his own accomplishments. What will Governor Swartzengroper be able to accomplish that Governor Davis couldn't. Swartzengroper will have the same legislature that Davis has now. The LtGov is a Democrat, and will be the governor when ever Ahnold leaves the state. Ahnold may not travel to DC to kiss Bush's ring very often. All of the state wide officers, except, of course Ahnold's new role, are Democrats.
One thing to expect, when the going gets tough, Ahnold and the cable TV news are going to blame it on the Democratic controlled legislature.

[Classical_Liberal]

5. No

.n/t

[Dogmudgeon]

6. NFL

Not F***ing Likely!

Arnold is a party-splitter for the GOP, and he's going to be under tremendous pressure to be the bipartisan RINO he campaigned as. And the purists will go after him, hammer-and-tong.

Then, too, he will have to answer those charges of sexual assault, whether in the press or in a court of law.

Recall Arnie? Possible. Not probable, but it certainly wouldn't come as a shock.

And all those whining gripes about "Hollywood Libbruls" are henceforth moot.

I've posted on this before. I just don't see Schwartzenegger as any kind of long-term threat. The press' "nine-day wonder" fix will wear off by Turkey Day, and leave Ahnold with three years of hard, thankless, stabbed-in-the-back-by-the-GOP work.

The real problem is Bush (and the NeoCon movement). Everything else is in its perspective, which is why Arnie does not bother me, and why people like Buchanan and Lew Rockwell are, ironically, positive attractions.

The economy is crashing faster than a 30-year-old Soviet Kosmos satellite. Iraq is a mess, a money-hole and a testament to NeoCon arrogance. Osama, Saddam, the details of 9-11, Diebold, Joe and Valerie Wilson, W's abysmal DD-214, Rove's parvanimity, and a hundred other major scandals are just starting to see the light of day.

Rush is self-destructing. Miller is being reviled as the whore he has shown himself to be. O'Reilly and Hannity find that more and more of their guests have learned that the only way to deal with a bully is to punch him out. FOX news is a laughingstock. Al Franken and Mike Moore, a geek and a fatty (and who are reviled more than geeks and fatties?), have both hacked some crippling holes into the ichor-dripping zombie that is the neo-conservative GOP.

Like all dick-waving political movements, the NeoCon movement will die an agonizing death, hung by the feet, bled white, and spat upon by the rabble they pandered to and disdained. And Arnie will either trend liberal/progressive, or be consigned to the same fire which Bush will be facing.

The big question is, can we hang tough until then?

--bkl

Edited to increase the decease

[mbartko]

35. Brilliant Post And Exactly Right! :)

[onehandle]

7. No. California has a huge and growing, Dem majority...

The ONLY way they could steal anything there like this was to run a celebrity.

It brought out the stupid in people.

[chaumont58]

8. I just noticed the time setting on your original post

10:53 am? Europe?

[arwalden]

10. (I'm In Maryland... )

The time you see is adjusted to your local time, maybe? Or perhaps it's the local time of the web server itself.

-- Allen

[ElsewheresDaughter]

9. so they stole another election....the only way repukes can win

Arnold cannot claim anything with this recall except shame....IF it had been a NORMAL election cycle he would NOT/NEVER have been able to even get on the ballot and he knows this is a FACT! repukes can only win by theft...

BBV and the fact that in LA County was disinfranchised...normally LA County has 6,000 polling places ...for the recall LA County had only 1,500 polling places open, I wonder what the rest of democratic areas number of closed polling places were?


...this recall equals THEFT AGAIN

[arwalden]

11. How Widely Distributed Were Those 1500 Polling Places?

Were they CONCENTRATED in heavily Republican areas? I'm just guessing. Just asking.

[Classical_Liberal]

12. The used the recall clause in the Cal constitution

it wasn't stealing, but the recall against him won't be stealing either. If it is true there weren't enough polling places for all the voters you should push that.

[bearfartinthewoods]

24. awww..please....don't go there...

the proceedure is on the books. it was waaay too easy to initiate but it's legal. arnold got more votes than davis. and arnold plus mccclinock got almost 2 to 1, pub to dem. we need to deal with this. trying to dismiss the facts with a cry of theft is counterproductive.

[bearfartinthewoods]

25. before you cry theft, please consider that dems run the elections in LA

they determine how many and where the polling places are. are you saying dems stole the elections for the pubs? that's silly.

[Must_B_Free]

14. I don;t think so

i think it depends on the voters in 2004

[CMT]

15. heck, NO!!

a close analysis would indicate that this was not an anti-Democratic party vote but a anti-incumbent vote. George W. Bush is in trouble. If a governor can be recalled due to high deficits and slow job market, ect then Bush better watch out. Add to Bush' plate a mess in Iraq, rising poverty levels, and declining numbers of people with health insurance.

Arnold also is a pro-choice, pro-gay rights Republican. This was not a victory for the "right" and you should tell your brother that. The true right wing candidate, McClintock got about 13%. Tell your brother that if California is any indication then incumbent Bush is in serious trouble next year.

[ozymandius]

19. Pay attention to this comment!

I agree that the vote was anti-Davis rather than anti-Dem. Gray Davis has been a very stupid politician with his alienation of key members of the legislature, his "untouchable" attitude toward the electorate. I think what we see here is a popularity contest. Davis just did not have the basic chemistry to match Arnold's.

Besides, California has had a gaggle of Republican governors in the past. Yet the state remains a Democratic stronghold.

[LeftHander]

31. YES - Watch close at Arnold appointees

Watch how many election officials get appointed. Watch how new paperless machines spread like wildfire.

They saw an opportunity and leaped on it like a tiger on Roy.

Sorry to predict. California will be the "Florida" of the 2004 election and Bush will win re-election.

[ozymandius]

34. See my post #33 up top...

Regardless of BBV issues, there are certain elements of Californian election law that set this state apart from Florida. Election laws vary from state to state. Some states have stronger safeguards against fraud and securing the veracity of election results. There is als a fertile climate for litigation involving the touch screen machines. Thank Jim March for being on the front lines of this.

Re: my comments in post #33

Gov. Groper stands to be the litmus test of the Republican party's small tent. This is a party that does not tolerate tolerance. While Groper's positions on social issues are fundamentally anathema to the Republican party's stances, the true folly of his goernorship will be his headstrong impulse to compound the problems started by Republican programs of deregulation, dirty environmental policy and abuse of the public trust. Of the latter, I am waiting to see how quickly any Enron-related suits are quietly "settled".

[bearfartinthewoods]

27. EXACTLY!!!!! this wasn't about dems...it was about davis!

let the pub's have the wheel. the steering is still broken and there is no way they can change the direction the state is headed.

let them be behind the wheel for the next three years and then see what happens!! :grin:

[OneBlueSky]

16. as long as they're counting the votes . . .

and there's no audit trail from the touch screen machines, you can bet the farm that Bush will take California . . .

[WoodrowFan]

17. No.

It was an anti-incumbent vote in a time of high energy prices and a sour economy. If anything, that makes it look bad for Shrub. Besides, Ar-nold isn't Shrub. Wasn't Ar-nold Pro-Choice and pro-gun control?

I'd ignore your brother's jibe. (though I guess that's easy for me to say, isn't it.)

BTW, I just looked. With 95% of the vote counted more people voted for Davis (ie NO on recall) than voted for Ar-nold.

[quaker bill]

18. No

Just no

[rads]

20. People just wanted change

In every exit interview that's being shown people who voted for Arnold did so because they wanted "change". I'd say this is actually a GOOD thing for our chances in '04 (in CA and elsewhere), assuming we get a candidate who's capable of riding that wave.

[Darth_Kitten]

21. No........

the state is overwhelmingly democratic. That's a given. :thumbsup: :)

[DrDan]

23. of course it has turned GOP - and taxpayers are going to fund it

For junior to be successful in California, Arnold needs to turn around his budget problems and the economy in general

How best to do that - an influx of new jobs

Florida has been leaking for several weeks that some new fed-sponsored jobs are headed to the Tampa area

Watch for similar activities in California

once the jobs begin to increase, Arnold, junior and the GOP have Calif in the bag

and to hell with the impact on the deficit

[Rowdyboy]

26. Move it from solid Democrat to

undecided-slight Demo edge...This is as bad as it gets. Meet Dianne Feinstein's sucessor, Senator Schwartzenegger...

[VOX]

28. Depends on how popular Arnold is come 2004, when he endorses *...

*Can* Arnold fail, is the question -- or does he have so much big money, media and machinery propping him up so he can't fail?

Arnold is a * family friend, so he's probably quite comfortable with endorsing *, and in doing some deep-dish fundraising for him.

Make no mistake -- if Arnold's doing well by next summer, he will be a prominent featured speaker at the 2004 GOP convention in NYC.

[noonwitch]

29. No-Michigan had a repub governor in the last 3 presidential elections

and the state still voted for Clinton and Gore.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

30. PRobably. In the next election, Bush will be running around the state

with Arnold and will have star appeal. Arnold will be given a free pass, all of his problems being due to Davis.

Picture Arnold as a mini-me of the manner in which Bush came to power with Pete Wilson behind him pulling the strings.

[Zero Gravitas]

32. Hell NO

This is a vote against thestatus quo, a creepy incumbant, massive deficits and a bad economy.

Come Nov. 2004 the same factors will be in play and CA will vote for the Dem Nominee.

[Faygo Kid]

36. Yes - remember Katherine Harris, and Jeb?

The levers of government now pass to the GOP, meaning Karl Rove. That's what the recall was all about. Anybody remember 2000, and Florida? Look for the same in California, with its 55 electoral votes. Bush may not be unbeatable, but this makes it tough. Another crooked election looms in 2004 - but, hey, "Survivor" and "American Idol" are still on, eh? Who is the next GOP celebrity to run?