Do last minute personal bombshells work as a strategy?

[StopThief]

It seems that dropping the DUI bombshell on Bush worked like a charm. A disproportionately large percentage of undecided voters swung over to the Gore camp in the last couple of days before the election.

However, the Arnold allegations, which would seem to be much more relevant, have not YET really registered according to pollsters. Today will tell. If not, the reasons why need to be analyzed.

Using this tactic in two such high profile races risks exposing the strategy to public scrutiny and causing a backlash. If that is the case, it is a strategy best left alone in the future.

Thoughts?

[Cassandra]

1. What tactic?

The LA Times started doing its investigation just after Arnold announced. I'm not sure why a seven week investigation in the eight weeks left for it is considered a tactic. Would you have preferred that they just make it up, but sooner? They said that if they could have run with it sooner they would have.

[sendero]

3. I sorta agree...

.... I have no idea whether the Times did a "timing" job. But one thing that cracks me up endlessly is the whining from Arnold and his athletic-supporters that the timing is suspect.

Say what? When you know the charges are true and damning you whine about the timing? Exactly when would they have liked to see this story, after the election?

The transparent whining hypocrisy of the right makes itself all too evident again :) They can sure dish it out but the fuss like babies when they have to take it. At least these allegations are credible and not made up from whole cloth like most of the allegations against Bill Clinton.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. It's interesting that there has been more discussion of the

"tactics" than the base allegations themselves.

[Frodo]

6. That's what we're here for.

I doubt there's anyone on DU that's thinking about voting for A.S.

There ARE, however, a lot of us who want to talk about how to win campaigns... how to win hearts and minds.... How to win back the House/Senate/White House.

It is naive in the extreme to think that most (if not all) of these stories are not "tactics" used to try to win elections. They may, in fact, be true stories (as you assume)... they may, in fact, be something that SHOULD affect people's votes... BUT, when released this close to an election (at least in the VAST majority of cases), they are also planned leaks intended to damage the opponent.

The question is valid... "Right or wrong, do such tactics aid in winning elections?"

[blondeatlast]

4. If Gropenator is elected, the allegations are gonna rein him in but good.

The media won't let up on this; mark my words. Between these and the Ken Lay allegations he's gonna wish he had never announced.

The legislature will be able to control him as well.

Besides, even if "last minute" allegations don't work, do you think that is going to stop the opposition from using them.

If the people elct this steroid-crazed loony with God aspirations, so be it. It will be the beginning, not the end.

[Democat]

5. The media didn't complain when they were slandering Clinton

But when one fucking paper dares to question Arnold in one article, published after many people had already voted, we need to take a close look at what is wrong with the media.

The right wing media is a joke.

[Frodo]

7. No, they hardly ever work... Just look at when they are used.

You very rarely hear of a ugly story being relesed the weekend before an election about the guy who is eight points down. No, the story is always about the person in front. Sometimes it works - I don't think anyone can pretend that 2000 would have been as close absent revelation of shrub's DWI - but may or may not make up the difference (of course, in 2000 it DID... but it didn't matter). Sometimes it backlashes against you - which is why you do it when it's too late to hurt you coming back - but you were going to lose anyway.


But you shouldn't worry about "backlash" against the party. The individual doing it usually loses - (s)he was behind already...remember? - and tends to disapear from politics. And people consider it "politics as usual". Don't pretend that Republicans don't play the game as well.

So the answer to the "tactics" question is: You do it when you have no other chance to win. If it works, great. If not? You were going to lose anyway.

But the answer to the "Is it right" question?: No.

[JI7]

8. arnold ADMITTED weeks ago

when arnold announced he pretty much admitted this stuff on leno when he said the thing about how they will try to bring up the women thing. why would anyone say that if not true ? he wanted to use it when it does come out so he can say -i told you so. the morons would fall for it. and much of this involves things HE said. it's not some bombshell.

[On the Road]

9. It Doesn't Show in the Polls

because the effect is not so much who voters prefer as how likely they are to go to the polls.