Does anyone seriously believe ....(recession or depression)?

[skooooo]

...that Katrina and its aftermath is not going to plunge the US into a severe recession or even depression? It may take a bit of time for the strains to show, but I don't see how we can lose a major American city that served as a major port for a large part of the country without some HUGE HUGE HUGE effects.

That's just one aspect of it too. The jobs lost will not just effect those who held those jobs, but also other sectors outside of the Gulf Coast that supported and interacted with those Gulf jobs.

The displaced people will need resources from other states and cities that are already just scraping by. Probably the feds won't help unless the locals have the right connections.

So I ask, does anyone seriously believe that the country can just "absorb" this mess without profound economic implications?

[Turbineguy]

1. Not right away

the key is just how much more can Bush borrow?

Our creditors might start to expect some means of paying for the loans....

[donheld]

13. Let's put Bush in Debtor's prison

:bounce:

[GreenPartyVoter]

2. I know we are on our way to a depression. I am sure of it.

------------------------------------------------------
Save the Gulf:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=106&topic_id=22507&mesg_id=22507

Then save the nation!
http://timeforachange.bluelemur.com/electionreform.htm

[applegrove]

3. They will end the estate tax, resulting in another one time pump up

of the stock market. Then SS will all go into the stock market. They will sell off assets as they have been doing for the last 4 years.

Once all this stuff has pumped up the economy - they are gone. The American government is as debt-ridden as any government has ever been. Then Dems have no way to implement new programs of fix anything.

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[funflower]

Self-delete.

[ScreamingMeemie]

7. Okay.

Let's play it by your game. How do we finance all these low wage/public assistance people (we're talking 100's of thousands) and keep or heads above water?

Oh yeah...welcome to DU.

[sniffa]

11. a good percentage - isn't that true for aLL bLack peopLe?

:nuke:

[ScreamingMeemie]

14. Well cept for them ones that is adopted by white people of course.

:hi:

[sniffa]

18. Like webster?

and arnoLd & wiLLis?

:hi:

[ScreamingMeemie]

21. What you talkin bout sniffa?

;) :hi: Woodwork is humming tonight,eh?

[skooooo]

20. You adopting any, Mrs Grumpy?

I'm sure our new DU friend here is going to do everything he can to help out.

[ScreamingMeemie]

22. Me? I'm one of them lazy libruls who can't even take a shower much

less care for anyone else. ;)

[skooooo]

24. Dayam! why don't you get a job already!!!

[funflower]

19. Welcome to DU, Ericmaxey! Glad t' have ya' with us!

:hi:

[tabasco]

25. You thought there were WMD in Iraq too, didn't you?

Did Rush tell you it's all welfare moms in NO?

Dumb fuck.

Got any cites / links for your info?

[FormerRepublican]

That's an AWFULLY big assumption!!!

30% of the population might have been poor, but there's still 70% who are not. Not to mention the number of businesses in New Orleans, including oil. A lot of oil men lived in New Orleans, as well. And let's not just focus on New Orleans - recall all those casinos that got turned to matchsticks in Biloxi?

Why are you making all those assumptions about New Orleans?

[skooooo]

33. You're a former Republican?

:wow:

What made you turn, pray tell?

[ScreamingMeemie]

36. I'm guessing idiotic spewing freaks like our dearly departed eric.

:hi:

[skooooo]

39. what happened to him?

?

[ScreamingMeemie]

40. Him? He was just a tad too excited.

:( sad...really.

[skooooo]

45. lol.....

What an idiot.

[BlueStateBlue]

48. How 'bout the sheer volume of the deficit this bozo has racked up

in his illegal murderous campaign in Iraq? I have no problem spending whatever it takes to save an American city, but we are going into New Orleans fiscally devastated by the hundreds of billions of dollars pillaged by these monsters for Iraq.

It will be absorbed? Gimme a fuckin' break!

Absorb this! :puke:

[Tace]

5. This Will Have Profound Economic Implications For The Entire World

99 out of 100 people in this country -- including most of DU -- have absolutely no idea what we're in for.

And even those of us who understand the grave nature of our circumstance cannot predict with any accuracy exactly how this will play out, except to say that the Great Depression will be a cakewalk in comparison, and the world will be unrecognizable to us in a generation.

[skooooo]

23. I agree, especially since we don't have any adults in charge....

it's a hard rain's gonna fall

:-(

Thanks Republicans!

[LARED]

8. I don't think recession or depression will be caused

by Katerina.

Tons of money will be pumped into the area for rebuilding. Those supplies come from the rest of America.

The temporary lost economic input of the area is significant, but still a tiny fraction of the GDP.

It looks like the price of gas will drop or at least stabilize in the short term and will almost with doubt decrease over the long term.

My two cents.

[skooooo]

16. Pumping money into the area....

...doesn't account for defaulted loans, or pay for the costs that are being encountered by other communities.

You may be right, but I see you focusing on only one aspect of the issue. Where will this money come from?

[LARED]

42. Where will this money come from?

I'm not sure, but I would expect the money would come from bank loans backed by the government.

I'm not including short term money providing relief, but in the big picture I don't see this as a major drain on the economy.

Again just my two cents

[sniffa]

27. don't forget the disruption to gas Lines and refineries

[LARED]

44. The disruption to the refineries are going to

be short term problems. Oil companies know how to get these things running quickly in an emergency. It cost to much not to move quickly

[ProfessorGAC]

9. I Don't

I track economic performance on a weekly basis, and have been mathematically modeling these data since the early to mid-80's. There will be no depression.

Now, recession is a different matter, but it has little to do with Katrina. The economy was already heading in a bad direction in terms of growth, employment, productivity, etc. It also was in a bad place for BUSINESS in terms of margins, revenue growth and profitability. So, we could be heading for a statistically significant recession, even if the other conventional economists don't define it that way. (Which makes them flat out wrong.)

But, there will be no depression. The economy is still too large and still to rooted in actual transfer of goods and services for reasonable costs. (Gasoline, the obvious exception.) Be concerned, but don't worry.
The Professor

[skooooo]

26. Ok Professor....

only time will tell.

:beer:

[ProfessorGAC]

28. One Teaches, But Some Will Not See

If you have a dataset and a theoretical basis that supports an opposing view i would love to see it. In the meantime, being chickenlittle will only shorten your life. Stress is a bad thing.
The Professor

[skooooo]

31. Most people don't base their ...

opinions on datasets.

Bawk bawk, call me chickenlittle. Stressed? not in the least.

[ProfessorGAC]

34. I Think You're In Denial

Sorry, but to suggest that there is a greater threat than really exists is not exactly the hallmark of someone who is not letting stress affect their reasoning.

I don't intend to be mean about this, but i've spent decades doing this. I don't just have a bad feeling and base my future expectations upon it. That's what you're doing. No basis in fact. No data to support it. Just a bad feeling. I don't deny the value of hunches, in some situations, but this isn't one of those situations. The economy is a GLACIER. It doesn't change that fast just because of a single, or even two, shifts in input parameters. It simply doesn't work that way, and hasn't for 125 years.

And, as to "most people don't base their opinions on datasets"; perhaps that's the whole freakin' problem.
The Professor

[skooooo]

38. whatever, mr. know it all

[ProfessorGAC]

41. OOOOOH! That Hurt!

Yeah, 25 years in a field, and i try to inform, and i'm a Know It All. You're desperately in need of education. And, you have some serious self-esteem issues.
The Professor

[skooooo]

46. sorry professor...

...lol.

25 years! I bow to your wisdom!

[ProfessorGAC]

47. No Offense Taken Or Intended

I'm just trying to help. If it angers some, i can deal with that.
The Professor

[tabasco]

51. Those who think they know it all ...

have stopped learning.

Bush has placed us in an unprecedented position economically and only a fool claims to know what will happen.

[skooooo]

52. that's what i think...

[Tace]

29. I'm Glad You Can Provide A Rosy Counterpoint To My Doom Scenario

And I hope you're right. However, I don't think you are taking into account the collapse of the international fiat currency system, which is, in my view, inevitable, within a generation.

[ProfessorGAC]

32. I Think You're Failing To Take Into Account. . .

. . . that you're strictly speculating, while my theories are based upon 125 years of actual econometric fact. Sorry to be pedantic, but pessimistic speculation NEVER trumps sound scientific methodology.
The Professor

[skooooo]

35. oh come on!!

There are LOTS of theories that have developed from econometric facts. Scientific methodology does not account for human behavior. If it were that easy, people wouldn't still be studying economics and other such social sciences.

You may or may not be right in this case, but delude yourself that only you have access to Truth at your own risk.

[ProfessorGAC]

43. Yes It Does

Another example that you don't understand how these things are done. You are aware, of course, that when economtric models are done based upon the existing history, ALL the human behaviors are already included. Instead, you're desperately searching to rationalize an indefensible position.

The data already INCLUDES all those behaviors. We've been through lots of tough times before. Lots of them. You know that perfectly well. You're now just being obstinate because you refuse to rethink your pre-existing, and unfounded opinions. Well, that's on you. I'm out. It would be tedious and boring to continue as you are unwilling to remotely reconsider that you just may be wrong, because the facts don't support your opinion.

The Professor

[Tace]

49. Indeed -- And I Am Neither An Economist, Nor A Student Of Econometric...

data. Yet, the time period you describe begins at the start of the American Industrial Revolution, when our currency was based entirely on gold. We had had virtually no monetary inflation for the previous 100 years.

With the creation of the Federal Reserve in the early part of the last century, along with discarding our gold-based currency system, a process begun by FDR, perhaps sooner, and completed by Nixon, we've seen a devaluation of the dollar of nearly 99%, and this devaluation is accelerating. Now we see the central banks of the world acting in concert to devalue all the world's currencies, by money creation in fractional banking systems.

Fiat money systems have been tried again and again throughout history, always with the same result... eventual runaway inflation and collapse. These collapses have always accompanied periods of war and social upheaval. Is this time different? I seriously doubt it.

I think, perhaps, I'm talking about a different time frame than you are. It is likely that we can struggle on a bit further, printing money and jacking the markets. But, I see very rough sailing ahead.

As I said, I hope you're right, and I'm a kook. Chrs.

[funflower]

10. I'm not much of an economist, but it seems that the loss of Port of NO

will be offset the fact that the insurance companies and the government will be paying an awful lot of people to clean up and rebuild the city and the rest of the gulf coast. I'm not sure I understand why this would bring on a national recession.

9/11 was different, in that it had a chilling effect on economic activity in certain sectors (mainly travel), which rippled through the economy. This seems to me like the kind of thing that could stimulate spending on disaster preparedness by both private and public entities.

[enid602]

12. recession

You best chance of avoiding economic cataclysm is by IMMEDIATELY getting UN to take over Iraq, cut defense budget to reasonable levels, restore pre-Bush tax rates and START SPENDING ON OUR AGING INFRASTRUCTURE. Also address huge trade deficit.

[sniffa]

15. but the dow is going up, up, up!

so if anything, it's a boon for the imiginary miLLionaire.

[SammyWinstonJack]

17. I think we are on our way to a Depression, brought on by the

"COMPASSIONATE CONSERVATIVES" Hey FReepers, you own this! How is this working for you "Joe sixpack one paycheck away from the poor house" idiots! But, Hey, at least Gays can't marry! :woohoo: And Right the Fuck on!

[snippy]

30. I do not believe that Katrina and its aftermath will cause a recession.

There will be an initial decrease in economic activity, but there will be a huge increase in government deficit spending, which is one form of economic stimulus. And the money spent on rebuilding will add significantly to real GDP growth. This is the typical pattern of the economic consequences of natural disasters and I see no reason to think that anything will be different this time. If something else disasterous happens in this country or to the international oil supply within the next few months, that might alter the typical pattern, but as of now Katrina and its aftermath should lead to an increase in economic growth.

[skooooo]

37. What about the debt?

No problem?

Well, I may well be wrong. Hope you are right. Still, I think there are more things at play here than just the "laws" of economics.

[snippy]

50. The national debt will continue to grow, faster and faster.

Someday the problem of the national debt will begin to have an adverse affect on the US economy, but that day is almost certainly quite a few years away. The problem of personal debt is a potential time bomb for the US economy if interest rates were to rise significantly. But the global glut of investment capital and the anti-inflationary effects of globalism mitigate against that right now. On the other hand, unanticipated economic crises usually become crises because they are unanticipated. So something bad might happen. Or not.