aside from Bush's approval ratings, let's look at these:
http://pollingreport.com/prioriti.htmCBS News Poll. July 8-9, 2003. N=753 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4.
"What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?"
Economy/Jobs 39 War/Iraq/Foreign policy 10
Terrorism (general) 9
Health care 4
Poverty/Homelessness 4
Education 3
Family values 3
Other (vol.) 22
Don't know 6
The Harris Poll. June 10-15, 2003. N=1,011 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
"What do you think are the two most important issues for the government to address?"
The economy (non-specific) 25 36
Health care (other than Medicare) 14 10
Education 13 11 Taxes 11 7
Terrorism 11 7
The war 8 38
Employment/Jobs 8 3
National security 6 6
Military/Defense 5 2
The top 3 being issues the middle thinks the Democrats are better on, at least at the moment.
and now look at this:
http://pollingreport.com/right.htmIpsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll. July 8-10, 2003. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
"Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?"
7/8-10/03 46 48 6
total Republican control, and a plurality thinks we're on the wrong track.
As you can see, people are just voting Republican in droves because they're afraid of terrorist and have bought the lies Democrats are wusses who can't protect them. Terrorism isn't at the top of their concerns.
Now before you bring up the 2002 elections, something to keep in mind. Most of the Republican victories were very close races. Coleman, Chambliss and Talent all won by very narrow margins, and even Sununu and Allard were close. The Dems' only pickup, Pryor in Arkansas, got a higher percentage than any Republican pickup, and was equal to Lindsey Graham's, who was from an overwhelmingly Republican state. Except for Johnson in SD and Landrieu in LA, all the Dems (Baucus, Harkin, Durbin, ect.) won by pretty wide margins.
The fact that Johnson even won itself in my opinion is enough proof there was no major backlash against Dems. He was a vulnerable first termer up against the most popular Republican in an overwhelmingly Republican state, and still pulled it off.
The 2002 elections were not proof that voters are throwing the Dems overboard, they were proof the Repukes got lucky in a few close races. Period.
The people are not happy, and with the recent events, they're going to get even more unhappy.