Supercomputer Weather Forecast - Cat 3+ Hurricane Emily Heads For Texas

[althecat]

From: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0507/S00226.htm

Scoop Supercomputer Weather: Hurricane Emily Heads For Texas

Compiled By Althecat


Click For Hurricane Emily Supercomputer Forecast

Useful Links:
National Hurricane Warning Center
Weather Underground – Tropical
Google Map of the Texas Coast
Google News – "Hurricane Emily"


Hurricane Emily South East Of Jamaica – July 14th 2005 – Image NASA Modis

Hurricane Emily, which has now reached Category 3 intensity making her the second official "major hurricane" of the 2005 season, and forecast to continue to intensifying may now to be headed for a Texas Coast landfall, directly through the Texas offshore oil fields.

According to the latest long range computer forecast from the NOAA GFS mode Emily will come ashore in the United States midway between Freeport and Corpus Christi on July 20th.

As Emily is presently South East of Jamaica, and more than five days away from landfall, no landfall location has yet been officially forecast by the National Hurricane Warning Center.


CLICK FOR LATEST HURRICANE EMILY COMPUTER MODEL GRAPHIC – Weather Underground

However all computer models have been predicting either a Mexico or Texas landfall for several days.

In addition the official track has been moving the track of the Hurricane slowly northwards for the past 24 hours. (See the NHWC graphics archive.)


CLICK FOR LATEST NHWC TRACK FORECAST – National Hurricane Warning Center

A further gradual shift northwards in the official track is consistent with the GFS Model's Texas Landfall forecast below.

NOAA GFS Supercomputer Weather Model Forecast For Hurricane Emily

ENDS

[BrklynLiberal]

1. Hope DimSon is clearing Brush in Crawford and gets blown all the way to Oz

[Tommymac]

2. Florida...Texas..Is Mother Nature trying to tell us something?

[NVMojo]

3. The Bush Brothers and their groupies have been baaaaaaaad!

[texanwitch]

5. It has been a long time for Texas, the last majoy storm was in

1983, and that came right at Houston. The flooding will be great with all the new developments that have been built since then. My old house was built in 1930 so it can take it, but the new townhouses I don't know about them.

[wallwriter]

7. New York, California, Pennsylvania...

Hurricanes never hit the blue states....

[Tommymac]

12. Yes they do, at least Pennsylvania...

we get the rain. Ask the unfortunate peoe in many towns around Pittsburgh who lost everything last year due to heavy flooding - and got NO Federal aid, unlike those in FLA who got money to rebuild their summer beach homes....Blue states get hit, we just don't get the support from the * administration.

[Tux]

4. LOL

Bush: "God talks to me."

God: "Yup. Is it windy enough?"

[gulfcoastliberal]

6. About time!

Good, go to Texas! I've been through 2 major hurricanes in 10 months and I am wondering why I left California. As soon as I get my place fixed up nice and find a sucker to sell it to for twice the amount I bought it for, I'm going back! Wasterfront property is a losing proposition, especially in the long run. Rising sea levels, more extreme weather -- it's so not worth it.

[sleipnir]

8. Hot Damn. Good thing we spent all that money on a Supercomputer. D'Oh!!!

A damn meteorologist could have told anyone that information.

[althecat]

9. Official Track Moves Further North.. Now Aimed At Mexico Border

OOops... old discussion... Edited to include latest one..

000
WTNT45 KNHC 150300
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

EMILY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 6.0
FROM ALL AGENCIES...CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115
KT. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE AND WINDS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE FIRST FIX AT 2347Z INCLUDED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 962 MB...DOWN 12 MB FROM ABOUT SIX HOURS EARLIER...AND
A MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 100 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 958 MB AT 0130Z WITH MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS UP TO 125 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...
SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 110 KT. NOT MUCH SEEMS TO BE
IN THE WAY OF EMILY MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...POSSIBLY
REACHING CATEGORY FOUR...DURING ITS PATH THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE GFDL MAINTAINS A NEAR-120 KT HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...AND WHILE THE GFDL CURIOUSLY WEAKENS EMILY IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A MAJOR HURRICANE BEYOND
72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE TOOK A SLIGHT JOG TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 285/17 SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ON CONTINUING THIS GENERAL
MOTION. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY BEYOND THAT TIME...THE OVERALL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BY AN INCREASING AMOUNT BEYOND 48 HOURS...BUT REMAINS ON
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.6N 67.5W 110 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.4N 70.1W 115 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.7N 73.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 77.1W 115 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 18.2N 80.2W 115 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.5N 86.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 95.5W 100 KT


$$

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505W5_sm2+gif/031924W_sm.gif

[althecat]

10. About six hours off Category Four..... Cancun and Jamaica to be hammered

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505I_sm2+gif/153620P_sm.gif

[althecat]

11. CNN reports now Category 4.... mentions texas

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/07/15/tropical.weather/

[Im_Your_Huckleberry]

13. 'directly through the Texas offshore oil fields'

time for another price spike.

[The Jacobin]

14. I heard something on NPR yesterday

That one of the largest oil platforms is tilting at a 20-30% angle after the last storm.

Let's see ... google ... yep, here it is:

BP says Thunder Horse platform levels slightly
Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:50 PM ET

By Timothy Gardner

NEW YORK (Reuters) - BP Plc. (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Friday its $1 billion Thunder Horse oil and natural gas platform in the Gulf of Mexico has made slight progress in leveling from its 20 degree tilt after workers secured pumps to remove water from ballast tanks.

BP discovered on Monday that the semi-submersible platform, the world's largest, was tilting after Hurricane Dennis hit the gulf. The company does not know the cause of the leaning and has said Dennis may not be to blame.

[Sparkle]

15. Downgraded to a Category 2.