Michael Simmons: Oil Fields of Saudi Arabia are nearing exhaustion.

[Karmadillo]

This isn't as important as where one can and cannot post the Ten Commandments, but it's worth thinking about. Michael Simmons is CEO of Simmons & Company International, a leading oil investment bank. He's a friend of the Disaster in DC and Cheney. If he's talking about the twilight of the petroleum age, it's way past time to worry. Too bad most of us are too passive to fight for a decent future for our children.

http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=56&ItemID=8170

For those oil enthusiasts who believe that petroleum will remain abundant for decades to come -- among them, the President, the Vice President, and their many friends in the oil industry -- any talk of an imminent "peak" in global oil production and an ensuing decline can be easily countered with a simple mantra: "Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia." Not only will the Saudis pump extra oil now to alleviate global shortages, it is claimed, but they will keep pumping more in the years ahead to quench our insatiable thirst for energy. And when the kingdom's existing fields run dry, lo, they will begin pumping from other fields that are just waiting to be exploited. We ordinary folk need have no worries about oil scarcity, because Saudi Arabia can satisfy our current and future needs. This is, in fact, the basis for the administration's contention that we can continue to increase our yearly consumption of oil, rather than conserve what's left and begin the transition to a post-petroleum economy. Hallelujah for Saudi Arabia!

But now, from an unexpected source, comes a devastating challenge to this powerful dogma: In a newly-released book, investment banker Matthew R. Simmons convincingly demonstrates that, far from being capable of increasing its output, Saudi Arabia is about to face the exhaustion of its giant fields and, in the relatively near future, will probably experience a sharp decline in output. "There is only a small probability that Saudi Arabia will ever deliver the quantities of petroleum that are assigned to it in all the major forecasts of world oil production and consumption," he writes in Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. "Saudi Arabian production," he adds, italicizing his claims to drive home his point, "is at or very near its peak sustainable volume . . . and it is likely to go into decline in the very foreseeable future."

In addition, there is little chance that Saudi Arabia will ever discover new fields that can take up the slack from those now in decline. "Saudi Arabia's exploration efforts over the last three decades were more intense than most observers have assumed," Simmons asserts. "The results of these efforts were modest at best."

If Simmons is right about Saudi Arabian oil production -- and the official dogma is wrong -- we can kiss the era of abundant petroleum goodbye forever. This is so for a simple reason: Saudi Arabia is the world's leading oil producer, and there is no other major supplier (or combination of suppliers) capable of making up for the loss in Saudi production if its output falters. This means that if the Saudi Arabia mantra proves deceptive, we will find ourselves in an entirely new world -- the "twilight age" of petroleum, as Simmons puts it. It will not be a happy place.

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[Jacobin]

1. I don't think the title of your post matches the article

"Nearing exhaustion" means to me that the fields are nearly depleted.

They are not 'nearly depleted'. They may have reached maximum capacity.

Decline curves for hydrocarbon reservoirs are not linear drop offs. They are somewhat gradual.

While it is clear that the world is reaching peak production (or may have already reached it) from easily accessible oil, that does not mean that the spigots will run dry next week.

What it does mean is that other forms of hydrocarbons that are more expensive to extract will begin taking up the slack and the artificially low price of oil (maintained by our military for the last 30 years) is over.

This is a good thing in many ways.

Flame away

[Karmadillo]

2. I based the title on the sentence where the author writes,

"...Saudi Arabia is about to face the exhaustion of its giant fields and, in the relatively near future, will probably experience a sharp decline in output." If we had taken reasonable steps to wean ourselves off of petroleum, I'd maybe share your semi-optimism. Since we haven't, I'm thinking things will get fairly bad fairly quickly. Humans with access to munitions tend to act poorly when their comfort is seriously threatened.

[kzootalker]

3. thanks for the post!!