Would Vietnam serve as excellent territory for future US bases?

[Selatius]

I ask this question because it seems the US is trying to encapsulate nations that could re-emerge later on or will soon become a world power. I'm talking mainly about Russia and China.

I've observed there seems to be a push into the Central Asian region with its yet untapped oil resources. The new and close relationship the US now enjoys with Georgia, for instance, is one example. It occupies a strategic point where gas and oil can be shipped out to the west. Of course, Russia was never onboard for the Velvet Revolution, but the US was, not to mention the Yellow Revolution in the Ukraine.

The government seems to be trying to get a foothold in and around Russia and China. The new bases opened in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan don't appear to be temporary bases. I suspect they'll be there for years, perhaps decades.

Then I saw this article:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050608/wl_nm/vietnam_usa_defence_dc

A senior US defense official recently met with Communist Vietnam's government to "boost understanding between their armies." Could we be courting Vietnam in order to establish military bases in the future? If so, would that help to "contain" China?

Would Vietnam be a better staging ground for US bases than South Korea and Japan? For one thing, both South Korea and Japan would probably get attacked if a war broke out in North Korea. (Think Seoul being reduced to rubble by thousands of artillery rounds and perhaps scuds falling on Tokyo if Kim decided to take everyone down if, say, Bush decides to go all out)

If you were to treat the entire world as a grand chess board, would this be a good move?

[MichiDem]

1. The Repubs aren't sophisticated enough to

consider "the entire world as a grand chess board". Maybe as a simple game of checkers or even skittles (spinning out of control, randomly crashing into things), but not chess; that's for intellectuals.

[SteppingRazor]

2. Um...given history,

Do you really think Vietnam is going to let us build bases there? Killing a few million people tends to sit in people's minds for a while.

We could offer them scads of cash and aid incentives, and Vietnamese leaders would probably still turn down any military base offers ddue to fear of popular outcry.

[Selatius]

3. Well, we reduced Tokyo to rubble, and look where we are 60 yrs. later

They still haven't gotten over the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Besides, Vietnamese leaders, unlike leaders in Japan, are undemocratic. They don't give a crap what ordinary folks think. They oppress them instead, sort of like Chinese leaders.

[SteppingRazor]

4. Yes, but...

Unlike Japan, they're communist
Unlike China, they have a small enough population that the threat of popular revolt could become very real.

I'm not an expert on Vietnamese foreign relations, mind you, but from the little I know, this would be a very bad idea for Vietnamese leaders.

Also, Vietnamese communism (again, probably because of the smaller population) is a lot more like the Cuban version than the Chinese one. Vietnam enjoys universal health care, and every citizen is rationed food by the government. Of course, that hardly makes up for living in a dictatorship, but it's something.

[Toots]

16. I do not believe you understand Vietnam at all

They are a very free people who really like Americans. Even ex NVA soldiers are extremely friendly. Tourists are a major part of their economy and they cater well to them. Vietnamese are free to travel anywhere they wish and are free to establish their own businesses where they can even engage in foreign trade. Vietnam is far better off today than it was forty years ago. You should take a vacation there and then tell us how they live.

[mainegreen]

5. Bad analogy.

Japan unconditionally surrendered. Can't say the same for Vietnam. Though I do agree that Vietnamese leaders can do anything they want without regard to popular opinion. Since they control the media I'm sure they could put a spin on it, convincing the average Vietnamese that this was some how a grand sign of American capitulation, and then use the money to buy a new Benz!

[SteppingRazor]

6. That's a good point.

State-run media may help things. But I just don't know how the populace would take seeing American soldiers on their land again. Would the cash the leaders get be enough to stave off the headaches?
Popular opinion, when taken to extremes, matters even more in dictatorships than it does in democracies. In democracy, you just got voted out. In dictatorships, you catch a bullet in the head.

[crispini]

9. By and large, a lot of the populace,

especially in the South, doesn't mind Americans. When I was there I told everyone that I was an American. The usual response I got was, "Oh, I've got family in L.A."

[Selatius]

10. From my experience, most Vietnamese harbor no ill will towards Americans

They generally have a pretty favorable view of Americans and American culture. They admire US culture to a certain extent. Many of them were born after the war ended. The older generations may be a different story, but many of them are now dying off of old age, and the youngest of them are now well into their 40s, and in Vietnam, the average lifespan is shorter than in the US. (I should know; I'm Vietnamese)

The situation is, in some ways, similar with Iranians. They, too, have no ill will towards Americans in general, at least the ordinary folks on the street, but with Iranians, it's more likely US troops are coming to kill, not build.

I wasn't asserting that US bases would show up overnight. Rather, it's more an evolutionary process where bases could show up 30 or 40 years down the road, and to me, that seems more plausible.

[Johonny]

7. I thought

we were closing bases to save money?

[crispini]

8. Well, we already have great relations

with Thailand, for example we conduct joint training operation "Cobra Gold" there every year with their military. So I'm not sure why we would need additional bases on Vietnam? That said, the Vietnamese traditionally have a big hate on for China, so it would be a logical long-term sort of thing.

It never ceases to amaze me how long people's memories are in those countries. The Thais still hate the Burmese because they sacked their capital -- four hundred years ago.

[mainegreen]

11. Vietnam is firmly in China's sphere of influence

Vietnam relies on China's goodwill more that it does on ours. Historically Vietnam has been culturally shaped by China. Politically they are very similar. We would be as successful in getting bases in Vietnam as China would be in getting bases in Canada.

We do need to explore our options, though, as our days in Japan are limited. Personally I think Thialand or Malaysia are our best options, though I doubt Thialand would allow us to use their territory for a base. Singapore has already run out of land, Burma is to paranoid, Laos lacks a port and is accessible most readily through Vietnam or Cambodia, The Philippines, well been there, done that, and Brunei is so freaking weird and paranoid that road maps are illeagle!!

If we were going for the best spot, though, our government would need to get themselves a big brass pair, because the best place for us is Tiawan, politically, economically and strategically it doesn't get any better than that! Plus it would really tick China off!

course I might just be smokin' sumpin :smoke: :silly:

[SteppingRazor]

13. Bwahahaha! I'd love that, just to see what happens next!

Pardon me while I build a bomb shelter. Ho ho!

Oh, and pass me some of that there stuff you're smokin'

Of course, you're right about our natural fit with Taiwan. But there are other things to consider -- like the massive nuclear power just a few hundred miles to the west.

[crispini]

14. We *built* a lot of the bases that the Thai military

currently uses in Thailand, and we have a JUSMAG there, as well as yearly training joint exercises. If the need arose I don't doubt they would give us a base.

I agree with your characterization that Vietnam was culturally shaped by China and is in China's sphere of influence but I think you underestimate the animosity between the two nations. Remember, the Chinese invaded Vietnam MORE RECENTLY THAN WE DID, 1979.

I think the Vietnamese (rightly) perceive China as a Big Ol' Threat and would not be averse to pursuing ties with the US to fend them off.

And a base in Taiwan would lead straight to a war with China. Yeah, that's a great idea. NOT.

[mainegreen]

17. I just think that the Thai Gov't

Is to politically astute to get messed up in having large US bases on their territory. Sure they'll let us help them build up their military, but historically they've always been good at keeping other governments fundamentally out of thier country, while mainting wonderful pro-west relations.

I realize the Taiwan idea woudn't work, but in a perfect world...

(then again in that world why would we even need bases?)

[crispini]

18. You'r right about their balancing act.

But there is precedent -- they had several bases in Thailand during the Vietnam war. :shrug:

[mainegreen]

19. I did not know that!

I guess if the circumstances were ripe....
Anyways, better US than China!

(edited for spelling like a 3 year old)

[crispini]

20. Yeah, I lived down the road from one.

The Thai military had taken it over but many of the older village folks remembered the American GIs fondly.

[Jose Diablo]

12. Naw....bad move

The food is rotten cabbage with hot peppers and a little rice, it tastes like crap. Leave 'em alone, they earned being left alone.

As for China, I thought the republicans loved China. Wasn't it their very own Nixon and Kissinger that took China out of isolation? Hell, it was Ollie and Cheney's company that gave China it's nukes. Talk about flip-flopping.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

15. The Vietnamese have had their share of American benevolence.

Just like the Iraqis are getting their share.