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KingOfLostSouls Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:14 PM
Original message
Ok, I've Ran The Scenarios Over In My Head
and I just don't see how, mathematically or logically, this will work to our benefit.

in the short term, we have avoided the nuclear strike however, heres some crucial points.

1. this is just the opening salvo in a long multifaceted war. the judges who WE decided were too radical now will receive the simple majority vote. Chances are, we're gonna get screwed. Oh sure we hear, "not every republican is gonna vote for them." give me a break, this is a party that moves in lock step when it comes to moving their agenda forward. We will see all or the large majority of them get confirmed.

2. this moves the goal post another 10 yards to the right. if any ONE single of them gets confirmed, which they will, all the ethical and judicial problems they had are rendered null and void. Janice rogers browne is now the end zone for republicans. So we've just made an even MORE extremist view a more mainstream view. the nation and the courts now will shift further to the right.

3. the DLC launched a MAJOR broadside against howard dean and those of us who want a democratic oppositional party. He's the prime target here by BOTH sides. after he laid an immense smackdown on Russert yesterday, and after Coleman got "Galloway-ed" last week, the DLC needed to slow down momentum. Now, they've succeeded in their "we will do the presidents bidding NO MATTER WHAT" move. I'm sorry, but I'm a little tired of hearing lieberman everytime he's on faux saying, "you're absolutely right, sean..." or "yes of course I support the president." make no mistake, the Focus on the Family wing of the Democratic party just launched their 2006 campaign against Dean and the democrats.

4. The definition of "extreme circumstances" is very subjective. Lindsey Graham was practically gloating on Tweety's show tonight because he knows that they have the dems by the balls

5. Speaking of graham, he pointed out that the seriel sellouts of the DLC are more than willing to move forward now on Bolton, destroying Social Security, and other Pro-Norquist plots against America. Maybe we'll see a GOP decision to kill one of the nominees in favor of bringing Bolton to the UN and keeping private accounts on the table. Thats most likely the logical scenario

6. No one REALLY took Bill Frist as a serious presidential contender in 2008. He's too extreme. I've been saying all along we're gonna see McCain somehow on the ticket, and most likely Jeb. McCain sold his soul to the Neocons, we all know that. He's not a moderate or a maverick, he's a neocon. He wants to wear the mantle once to see how it fits him and this is a great way to endear himself to moderates who will be duped by his act.

7. This also allows the GOP to run bloodthirsty primaries against their own moderates. Specter was brought to heel earlier this year, and make no mistake, the GOP is going to be thinning the herd with earnest now. Now they can say, SEE!! THE MODERATES FORCED THIS!!! WE NEED MORE COMMITTED CONSERVATIVES FOR THE CAUSE!!! like I said, the goal post just moved 10 yards more to the right

8. The MSM has adopted the GOP talking points. Its no longer the "nuclear option" its the "Constitutional Option." If you scanned over all the talk today, they did it in a weekend. This change of language by the media has ALWAYS precluded a GOP assault. They did it on the "death tax" and on "partial birth abortion." The MSM is gearing up for the real fight by preparing the public for the dialogue that the GOP will frame the debate with.

9. While also listening to Lindsey Graham on Tweety's show, I noticed one of his "hypotheticals." If you listen close enough, you can hear whats gonna be dropped next. The GOP is going to go for the supreme court and if anyone thinks we're going to save a filibuster for that, they're wrong. The GOP now has the ability to say, "hey we compromised. they just don't want to work with us anymore. we have to invoke the constitutional option to save america." Except NOW the goal post, again, has been moved. Where an extremist like owen or brown would have been scoffed at, NOW moving someone like them into the supreme court will be perfectly acceptable. "but they were already confirmed once, why are they suddenly so bad now?" will be the cry. Now Scalia comes off as an intellectual man of great stature because the loonies have been moved into the center.

10. The siege hasn't ended. Dean summed it up with his mention yesterday of the republicans "30 year plan." But what he left out was their 100 year plan, the "New American Century." These are people on a mission, a long term mission. Ralph Reed said they would move like guerrilla fighters, striking from the night. They've succeeded by duplicity. Neoconservatism is the politics of lying to control the masses. We had a chance to LET them yank themselves into the spotlight of truth. Instead now, they are provided with cover and ammunition for the future war. we gained a yard today only to lose 10 yards on the next play.

I know some people are proclaiming, "REJOICE!! We have peace in our time. The republic is saved." I'm not a pessimist but this stinks to high hell, period. This is the showing a deuce when you have 2 aces in hand. The REAL stakes are after 2008 keeping another neoconservative in power and advancing the AGENDA of the movement. As long as they have the right to go nuclear at their discretion, this is not a win for us, for the Senate, or for the Republic. I know we're all high on star wars analogys and all that, but this is the moment when Democrats ceded power, not gained power, and the Dark Side continues to eke through the cracks till eventually, it shatters it, like water creeping through the cracks in a boulder till eventually it washes it away. We are that boulder blocking the tide of empire, ladies and gentlemen. and we are now in supreme danger of being washed away.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act."
--George Orwell
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jojo54 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:23 PM
Response to Original message
1. Well, O,K. then!
Ya know, I would really love to say what I'm hearing a lot of - that this will be a good thing for the Dems. I certainly hope so. I hope they have the cleverest of tricks hidden in their shirtsleeve. We need some really good news right about now, and if we have to resort to Repug strongarm tactics to do it, then so be it. I would then say "Pass the popcorn!" :popcorn: :popcorn: :popcorn: :popcorn: :popcorn:
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Erika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:26 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. I also read an aritcle somewhere today by evangelicals
saying they were worried about the political face they had taken on and how they needed to broaden their message and reduce the politics.
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Erika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:23 PM
Response to Original message
2. Remember 2006 is coming fast
and Americans are growing very wary of Bush and his policies. The radical right wingers know they have to moderate. The GOP have began their edging away from Bush and his radical agenda.
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AuntiBush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:23 PM
Response to Original message
3. Stinks to high heaven is right! Thank you.
I too seen a few out rejoicing over a victory. Sorry. In no way do I see one. Dean. How is he suppose to do anything now, or to be taken serious.

Rove/Bush are sleeping fine tonight, while the rest of us are in a state of utter confusion, or blind joy.
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Erika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:30 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. The Dems have done fantastic
considering they are not the "ruling" party in power. Bush/Rove are having nightmares, the moderates are backing away from him as fast as they can go and so are the moderate evangelicals. But they did their thing, they paid their donors back way beyond their dreams.
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AuntiBush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. Hope you're right, Erika. You're more optimistic then I.
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Paul Dlugokencky Donating Member (409 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 05:34 AM
Response to Reply #11
32. Wait and see...
no one really knows how this will eventually play out. There should still be a healthy debate on the nominees, and solid cases can be made against each one. If the Republicans didn't have enough votes to go nuclear, it is possible that they may not have enough votes to ratify each and every nominee... or am I being overly optimistic?



http://www.cafepress.com/kickindemocrats
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ultraist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 12:29 AM
Response to Reply #3
26. I'm curious as to what Dean will say about this
Edited on Tue May-24-05 12:29 AM by ultraist
Why are THEY brokering our deals: Lieberman and Landrieu

It's pretty apparent that our party is continuing to go Repuke lite.
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KingOfLostSouls Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:27 PM
Response to Original message
5. on Number 6
about frist being too extreme I left out uncharasmatic. He's too wooden and just not electable in the slightest, he doesn't portray that, "no I'm really an idiot" thing that Chimpy Von Douchebag does, everyone knew he wasn't a serious contender
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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:28 PM
Response to Original message
6. #7 is a big help to us...
If they replace Chafee with a conservative, the Democrat has about a 90% chance of victory because it is Rhode Island. If they replace Snowe with a conservative the same applies. If they replace DeWine with a conservative we could paint him as extreme. If they don't replace him with a conservative, the freeps are talking about voting for the Democrat to punish DeWine.

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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:31 PM
Response to Original message
8. I agree....
What looks like a victory today, may be a terrible loss tomorrow.

But I guess those that want to be giddy for the next two days, should be. Folks have waited a long time to feel that they have won anything. Desperation will have one believing anything.

Just remember how the French must have felt the day they signed on the dotted line of....the Louisiana Purchase.

It's the long term that I am worried about...and there we are losing.

The Republicans set the agenda, created an issue out of nothing......other than regular procedures....and threatened a NUCLEAR OPTION. How scary is that?

Yet some will say that we won? Won what exactly is what I'd like to know.
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Erika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:36 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. We won the fact that this committee said Bush should submit
names to the two parties before he makes an actual nomination. We won because GOP moderates backed this and are edging way from Bush's hard line.

We can create the nuclear option and stop government again. Frist and the moderates backed down from this at this time.
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AuntiBush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #8
16. Boy. That photo of Wes Clark looks very appealing right now.
Having a moment of grand delusion. One of those "what if."

Frist would never win. He's like a walking computer chip. No feelings. Too staunch. McCain will never win. He does not have that charisma. Sorry. I don't want Hillary, but have this feeling our Dem's are being forced into the main moderate center and as far as I'm concerned they might as well be Republicans.

Wes Clark or even Congressman Conyers. But please, no more Bushes. No more neo-extremists.

But where are those that stand-up for their convictions, principles? Where are they? Are they all gone?
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #16
22. I hear ya!
But as you know, we're in deep shit for 3.6 more years.....where the WH and their media will be setting the agenda....and obviously the Dems still are into taking the "high road".

I cried another tear for America today when I realized that John Warner and Joe Lieberman are now the new Moderates of their respective parties.

Great Dangers ahead is all I see.
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:37 PM
Response to Original message
10. This is all about the long-term neocon agenda...
...and if BushCo gets their radical judges approved--they've won.

Period.

I think all of Frist's "I'll go nuclear! I swear!!" crap, was grandstanding. He was forcing a "compromise", and he knew the Dems would cave.

Why they caved--I really don't know.

If the Reps went nuclear--we won because the public would have hated the extremism. If we would have held our ground--the nominations would have been stalled.

We lost on all accounts. We helped the Reps avoid going nuclear and looking extremist. We are now on our way to helping them get their most extremist judges approved. Plus, the filibuster is still in place for future Rep use--even though we don't benefit from it existence right now.

This is so totally nuts. This does not make sense.

It's so outrageous--and the Reps still got what they wanted--I'm wondering if this entire "I'll go nuclear" stuff wasn't staged.
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Erika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #10
15. They got a few marginalized judges a vote
You have to face a reality. We are outnumbered in both the Senate and the House. Bush lost a lot when the Committee said Bush should submit names to both parties the names before nomination.

If one side went nuclear, so would have the other. The public would have perceived that.

Our turn will come. 2006 is coming and Bush is neither popular or has a positive agenda.
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Toucano Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:42 PM
Response to Original message
12. We're fucked alright.
But we've been fucked since November 3rd.

Nothing today affected that fact one bit.
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Meeker Morgan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 12:05 AM
Response to Reply #12
23. kick n/t
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:42 PM
Response to Original message
13. A smarmy, but elegant nuclear landmind was planted in the senate chamber,
Edited on Mon May-23-05 11:44 PM by understandinglife
... today.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=3714853&mesg_id=3716060

The first minority member to exclaim 'extraordinary circumstance' will be the one who steps on the mine.

Other than that, it was a great victory for the dems - oh sure, and along with $3.00 you can buy yourself a latte.

For the vibrant republic, "America," it was just another shovel of dirt on the casket of what once was.

Peace.


"Restore America Party" - RAP for short - in formation
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AuntiBush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. Agreed. Totally agree.
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KingOfLostSouls Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:45 PM
Response to Original message
14. Frist, Warner, McCain all Answer To The WH
this "compromise" wouldn't have happened without the approval of the highers up.

why do you think theres no statement from the WH? they don't care

the nominees they wanted are going to pass the vote

and we could replace Chafee in RI, but they're gonna be targetting any dem up for election BIGTIME in red states

is Dorgan back up? if he is, he'll be a big target

Reid also

the judges we didn't WANT voted on are now getting voted on (passed)

Ze Fuhrer knows that McCain will do what he wants, same with Frist,and Warner. and if he needs swing votes, all they have to do is pick up the phone and call up "Uncle Joe" and he'll be more than willing to go on to represent the democratic party and say, "you're absolutely right, sean."
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AuntiBush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:49 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. Wanted you to know: Agree w/you as well.
higher ups got their way. a joke.
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Erika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #14
19. Watch Nightline
Republicans aren't looking good.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:50 PM
Response to Original message
20. Where Are those Aces You Are Talking About? Our Hand Looks Like This
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wiggs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:51 PM
Response to Original message
21. Stinks, yes. Unless....
I think the dems win if any one of the candidates fails. Then the dems were right to have their opinions heard and save the country from a poor candidate.

And what would have gotten those moderate votes but the threat of a shutdown of government. If the dems horsetraded for votes to kill a radical candidate or two, then this scenario seems reasonable and worthwhile.

Otherwise, I agree....what we know about the deal doesn't add up.
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Fovea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 12:14 AM
Response to Original message
24. I have only one word to describe this post...
Lucid.
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ultraist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 12:21 AM
Response to Original message
25. What really is the difference between...
Edited on Tue May-24-05 12:23 AM by ultraist
Nuke option and "extraordinary circumstance?" Both carry the power to force an up and down vote. This is all too Orwellian.

So, for the remaining time of the 109th Congress, they agreed to not use the term Nuke Option for judicial appointments. WTF?

We got at least three radical judges and MAYBE the option to filibuster on one SCOTUS appointment, IF it rises to "extraordinary circumstance." I highly doubt there will be more than one SCOTUS appointment this session.

Can anyone define "extraordinary circumstances?" Do we really need at least 40 Senators to get that?
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Ms. Clio Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 12:48 AM
Response to Original message
27. I've been reading all these threads, trying to decide what this means
This is a very thorough and compelling analysis.

And really, above all, I just don't trust these lying bastards to honor this new agreement anymore than they were prepared to honor the previous status quo.

Only time will tell, I suppose.


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Griffy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 02:30 AM
Response to Original message
28. They blinked... nt
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KitSileya Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 02:52 AM
Response to Reply #28
30. But we had our eyes closed the whole time.
So it doesn't matter if they blinked or not.
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 02:49 AM
Response to Original message
29. Links to VIDEO CLIPS, Dem and GOP BLOGS, and DU THEADS on "The Deal"
Edited on Tue May-24-05 03:04 AM by Nothing Without Hope
There certainly is a wide range of commentary on the filibuster deal. I think we won't know who REALLY "won" until we see how the votes for later nominees, especially for the Supreme Court, play out.

Here is a thread with links for video clips and to over a dozen EACH Progressive and GOP blogs:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1804963&mesg_id=1804963
Thread title: “A great filibuster deal BLOG & VIDEO CLIP collection at Crooks & Liars”

And here is a partial list of other DU threads on the filibuster deal:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x3712993
Thread title: “CNN Just broke in with ‘Deal made on the filibuster debate’”

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x3716283
Thread title: “Frist isn't the only one "nutted" by the deal”

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1803985
Thread title: “The Democratic Party DID Win, Here's Why”

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x3714550
Thread title: “All Of Bush's Right-Wing Judges Will Be Approved: Another Great Victory!”

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x3716065
Thread title: “Ok, I've Ran The Scenarios Over In My Head”

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1803255
Thread title: “We Just Preserved the Filibuster for the Supreme Court Nominee”

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x3713311
Thread title: “I'm glad they made this deal” (Will Pitt)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x3714583
Thread title: “CNN: Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) speaks for filibuster deal - (VIDEO)” (2 min video by dzika)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x3714881
Thread title: “Whoa! Dobson speaks!”

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x3713639
Thread title: “Lindsay Graham: ‘The White House is going to have to listen to us.’”

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1494887
Thread title: “MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING ON JUDICIAL NOMINATIONS”

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1494562
Thread title: “Sen Ben Nelson says deal reached on judges to avoid shutdown”

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x3714136
Thread title: “Tyranny Averted”

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1803669
Thread title: “Reid Claims Victory!”

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=3716815#3716931
Thread title: “Filibuster compromise: What a CHARADE by both sides.”
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Shrek Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 05:21 AM
Response to Original message
31. Your #2 and #9 are right on the money!
According to the agreement the filibuster won't be used except in extraordinary circumstances.

But now what will it take to meet that standard? If someone like Brown or Owens is nominated for the Supreme Court, there's no way a claim of extraordinary circumstances would hold up. They got a vote. They were confirmed. There's no way any similar nomination can now be considered extraordinary.

Any attempt to filibuster a nominee of their ilk and the Republicans will claim the deal is broken and the nuclear option is back on the table.
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HamdenRice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 05:34 AM
Response to Original message
33. Thanks for your thoughtful analysis nt
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bloom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 12:28 PM
Response to Original message
34. "we will do the presidents bidding NO MATTER WHAT"
I guess people either see it as some of the Republicans being moderate or some of the Democrats (DLCs) giving the Republicans the nominations they wanted.

I see it second way.
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in_cog_ni_to Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
35. Terrific post and I agree.
:hi:
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BrightKnight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 03:00 PM
Response to Original message
36. It affords more time to get the message out.
Frist threatened to nuke constitutional democracy over a few wing-nuts. They would replace representative democracy with one party rule. A simple majority has never held absolute power in this country. This is not the way our government was conceived or the way that it has ever worked. We do not simply ignore the will of 49% of the voters. It should not be that difficult to communicate this. The only thing good about the deal is that it affords more time to get the message out.

This was nuclear blackmail and everyone knows it.

The Repugs will pay a very heavy political price for this.
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WilliamPitt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 03:01 PM
Response to Original message
37. #7 is great news
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yebrent Donating Member (500 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-24-05 10:21 PM
Response to Original message
38. I think you forgot that the longer this drags on and the nuclear...
option is delayed, the better it will be for the Dems in the 2006 elections. the longer it is dragged out the more the general public will catch on to the extreme abuse of power of the nuclear option. They will see the Republicans control everything, yet things are getting better in America, they are getting worse. IMO, the Repukes may not be able to pull the trigger if it drags on too long.
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