Thinking out loud about the deal

[BurtWorm]

I am very tempted to say about this centrist deal what my gut wants me to say, which is that we got sold out. But I don't want to be reflexive about this. I want to think this through. Maybe others of us in this forum are as up in the air about it as I am. Maybe we can work through this here and let others celebrate this as a win or mourn yet another loss in their own threads.

I'm going to list some positives, because my first thought (before I knew the specific details and only saw a bipartisan group patting themselves on their backs) was positive:

1. Frist has been humiliated, I hope. That is a positive. Frist has been made to look like the extreme right's water boy. He has been made to look like an extremist himself, someone who was willing to blow up the Senate to do Dobson's bidding. He is so bland in all respects, he barely registers as a human being of any character. This should scar him. If it doesn't, this apparent positive is worthless.

2. As much as I loathe the centrists in the Democratic Party, I think it is important for the "moderates" in that other party to know that they don't have to take the right wing's shit if they don't want. I hope Reid can exploit this wedge in that other party so that he can keep them off balance for the next two years, by throwing them some kind of bone to pull them leftward. But this will be small consolation if the Dem mods allow themselves to get yanked right. The point is, Reid has to exploit this wedge before Frist is able to. I don't think Reid was as harmed by this as Frist has been, but he will be if he can't control the centrists and exploit the Rep rift.

3. The extreme right is sounding very angry and betrayed. Let's just hope it's not an act. Let's hope they feel real severe pain over this. Have a nice taste of what we've been feeling since 2000.


Here are the negatives:

1. Brown, Owen and Pryor--the bottom of the barrel, the reason the filibusters were so urgent to begin with--are in. This is a disaster. The Dems have to put the plug back in IMMEDIATELY. No more of these rightists, or, though they think they may have won a battle, they'll really have lost the whole war.

2. There is absolutely no guarantee that the Republicans won't pull this shit again.

3. The extreme right may suddnely start to enjoy what we see as negatives.

[rwenos]

1. "Loathe" Is a Strong Word

To use for the only part of the body politic (moderate Dem's) standing between you and the Brownshirts.

[BurtWorm]

3. They're a little too close to the borwnshirts for my comfort.

They let the worst of the worst in. Hard to like people who do that and call it a victory.

[rwenos]

5. Depends on How You Frame The Issue

If you see the centrist Dem's as a buttress against the worst excesses of the Brownshirt Right, the centrist Dem's are a good thing.

If you see them as candy-asses who are scared of the carnivorous Right, you may have a point.

On the other hand, Democrats CANNOT win the Congress or the WH without a slice of the center of the electorate. This is Poli Sci 101.

[BurtWorm]

7. It's important that Reid exploit the rift on the other side.

If he can keep the Dem centrists from straying, it may be worth it.

[rwenos]

11. Good Strategy!

The Pug's have been exploiting "divide and conquer" against US for several years. It's about time the players got wise and turned the knife against 'em. A-holes.

[BillZBubb]

2. Frist is a non-issue in this.

Saying he's been humiliated and ranking that against even one of those right wing fanatics on the court is absurd.

Frist is a lame duck and is never going to be a successful national candidate. Hurting him strategically does NOTHING for the Democrats.

Having proven right wing fanatics on the court for a LIFETIME will hurt us all.

Once Limpballs explains it to the right wing ninnies, they'll understand they just won a victory of Agincourt proportions.

[FreedomAngel82]

4. Yep

I remember when I first heard the news I had this horrible feeling in my gut. With me my feelings haven't been wrong if I really listen to them. And I feel really bad about this.

[BurtWorm]

6. That is the point that almost kills the deal entirely for me.

Let's weigh what both sides got:

Dems:
No nukes for now.

Reps:
The worst fascist motherfuckers on the court forever.


Gee...that's a close call, isn't it?

[IndianaGreen]

8. Russ Feingold said this is a bad deal for the Senate and American people

Read his statement here:

http://feingold.senate.gov/~feingold/statements/05/05/200552327.html

[lyonn]

10. Ouch

Was that a Feingold Bitch Slap?

[kainah]

9. another positive

Dobson is furious and any time Dobson's angry, that's good news:

http://press.arrivenet.com/pol/article.php/642140.html

Seriously, though, I think there are a few significant victories that shouldn't be overlooked:

1) The center held and the repug moderates broke from Frist. This is no small thing since we have seen so many straight party line votes. The fact that 7 Repug senators went against Frist is very significant. (And, after all, it's been much more common for 7 Dems to go against our leadership, so....)

2) This has empowered the Repug centrists. I have little doubt that part of the reason they wanted this deal was because they knew that, without the filibuster, they were as irrelevant as the Dems. That suggests, then, that they won't be eager to give up their power in the future either.

3) We will have a real debate now on any Sup Ct nominee. If they had been able to get rid of the filibuster, * could have sent up any right wing kook and he wouldn't have had to even consider the possibility that they would be kept off the court.

4) I believe the paragraph dealing with the importance of advise in the advise and consent clause is quite significant. This tells * that he needs to consult with both parties before making his nominations. Will he? He sure as shit won't want to but the moderate repugs have thrown down the gauntlet for him.

Finally, and most importantly,

5) Tomorrow, the Senate will still be the Senate and not a pale shadow of the House. This is very important. Unfortunately, I think a lot of people on this board aren't thinking about how disastrous the nuclear option could have been -- not for us or for the Dems but for the very republic we live in.

As for the negatives -- I totally agree wtih 1 & 2. And maybe it's just been a really long day but I don't understand your 3.

Try to be glad you still live in a country where the minority -- especially one that represents the majority -- still has some say in what happens. And if we have to fight it again, we'll do that.

[BurtWorm]

13. I'll explain number three

The wingers may realize that numbers one and two of our negatives (as I put them), are strong enough positives for them to outweigh the negative of the Republicans appearing to cave, and any others of our "positives." After all, the Dems caved too, on several nominations that they had refused to budge on.

It remains to be seen if allowing Owens, Brown and Pryor their life-time appointments on strategically significant courts is worth whatever gains Dems get out of the deal. Is keeping the filibuster--for now--worth it, when the Republicans can whip out the nuclear threat at any time to counter it and get more judgeships we don't want and the nation doesn't need? Do the Democrats win anything as permanent as a lifetime appointment (let alone three or more life time appointments) to the court?

[punpirate]

12. We'll have a better idea...

... about whether or not the moderates are holding sway against Frist when we see the votes on these three judges.

By all rights, if the moderate Republicans were assuming control, they'd also have the sense to at least vote down Rogers Brown, to send a message to White House (i.e., "don't send us any more of these raving lunatics that God himself couldn't get confirmed"), if only because the court she's going to is critical, and to let Frist know that his bullying and cozying up to the wacko religious right isn't appreciated (which also sends a message to Rove).

If all this was just to get the worst of the worst confirmed, then that means that the moderate Republicans aren't that moderate--because they were working, in this agreement, to get them confirmed.

Another word of caution. If Frist is determined to get his way (and if he has the clout to do so), the signatories of the agreement are the ones bound by the agreement. Frist could, ala Tom DeLay and Hastert, simply hack off the offending appendages from the committees required and start all over again. This would make him look crazy as a loon to the average sane person, but the fundies would love him for it--and the press would be likely to spin it in his favor.

The other thing about this is that all bets are off after 2006. If Frist is the sort of person to hold a grudge (and I think he is), there will be a passel of rule changes right at the beginning of the 110th Congress.

[BurtWorm]

14. Just the fact that Democrats have no immediately apparent tangible gain

from this deal beside the shakily preserved filibuster is a bad sign.

[GreenPartyVoter]

15. "More a ladyfinger firecracker than a nuke"

Well, it seems the nuclear option has come and gone, more a ladyfinger firecracker than a nuke. And as usual these days the Republicans come out ahead.

Compromise-both sides gain or both sides give up items at issue in order to avoid conflict. The Republicans have advanced in gaining three of the most horrendous judicial nominees in decades. The Democrats? Got to keep on standing still. They had it in their hands and let it slide away.

More: http://www.livejournal.com/community/thought_express/

[BurtWorm]

16. One thing the Dems also got is Frist's humiliation.

If that's all they got, it wasn't worth it. But if they accepted this knowing Frist would not, they may be expecting the deal to break down, and once again, they can make Frist look like a lunatic.

That's the very best I am hoping for this: that the deal won't hold. Or that the mod Repubs will vote with the Dems against Brown, at least, and maybe Owen or Pryor. That last bit seems too much to hope for. More likely, the deal will crumble in a matter of days.

[GreenPartyVoter]

17. This thing is not held together with SuperGlue, to be sure.

[Bandit]

18. Bush* is the big winner

He will get one hundred percent approval of all of his nominees unlike any other President in America's history. That fact alone should tell us something. Is Bush* that good? He will accomplish something no other President has ever done. One thing about Republicans, right or wrong they will fight for their issue/constituents. Democrats only appear to fight for their re-election and I am afraid that also is in peril.

[BurtWorm]

19. If the deal holds, that might be true.

We don't really know now. The deal may not hold. Reid may even have agreed to it knowing it wouldn't hold.

But even if it does hold, it isn't yet clear that all of the nominees will get through.