Here is my outline. Predictions that came true are in
bold. Predictions in which Republicans got right, and I got wrong are in
italics. Note the date of the speech
John XXXXXX
Public Speaking
11/14/2002
Acting Within a Consensus
Specific purpose: To persuade my audience that building an international consensus through the U.N. is more prudent than a war with Iraq.
Central Idea: A unilateral war with Iraq will cost hundreds of billions, send a weaker message to Saddam Hussein, and could fuel more terrorism directed at the United States.
Method of organization: topical.
Introduction
I. (attention getter) “The skillful leader subdues the enemies’ troops without any fighting; he captures their cities without laying siege to them; he overthrows their kingdom without lengthy operations in the field. With his forces intact he disputes the mastery of the empire, and thus, without losing a man, his triumph is complete.” This is a quote from Sun Tzu, and his words are as true today as they were two and a half thousand years ago.
II. (state topic) Today, the leader is George Bush, and the kingdom he is fighting is Iraq. But recent activity from his administration indicates they are itching to pull the trigger, before renewed United Nations weapons inspections are given a chance to work.
III. (establish goodwill) Although Saddam Hussein poses a threat to the security the U.S., an all out war could threaten our country in an even greater fashion. To insure the peace and security of the world, Iraq must be dealt with by a consensus formed by the U.N.
IV. (preview) Any unilateral war on Saddam Hussein would cost hundreds of billions of dollars, send a weak message, and could perpetuate even more terrorism.
Body
I. Every war has a cost, involving both money and human lives.
___A. The United States spends more on its military than the next 20 countries combined, according to a recent article in Business Week.
______1. It is also projected that by 2005, it will be spending more than the rest of the world combined.
___B. According to a Wall Street Journal article, George Bush’s chief economic advisor Lawrence Lindsey estimated that a war with Iraq will cost between $100 and $200 billion.
______1. If the U.S. goes without U.N. approval, it is unlikely that many foreign countries will act to defer this figure.
______2. This would also hurt the budget deficit, which is on the rise.
___C. This war has the potential to claim many more lives than the Gulf War.
______1. Ousting Saddam means a war on the streets of Baghdad, which could be slow and tedious.
II. A U.N. based effort would solidify the message that the world will not tolerate Saddam Hussein anymore.
___A. Only the U.S. and Britain have endorsed any independent military action against Iraq
___B. Quoted from an article on www.time.com, U.N. approval confers a legitimacy that even a superpower cannot claim by itself.
___C. An international consensus will also aid in Iraq’s isolation.
______1. This scenario presents a greater likelihood of a coup, since Saddam’s legitimacy would be questioned.
______2. Isolation would also lead to less aid and supplies to Iraq in the event of a war.
___D. A consensus would also help defer the cost of any military action.
______1. According to the same Wall Street Journal article, the Gulf War cost $58 billion, but U.S. allies paid $48 billion of that cost.
______2. In a consensus situation, foreign bases will be more readily available to aid in war efforts.
III. Finally, and most importantly, a unilateral strike on Iraq could fuel more terrorism.
___A. According to a www.foxnews.com article, CIA director George Tenet states that a terrorist attack would be more likely if the United States takes military action against Iraq.
___B. Also, an unstable Iraq could actually put more weapons of mass destruction in the hands of terrorists.
______1. The same www.time.com article states that “many analysts believe that terrorists could smuggle arms out of Iraq in the event of war.
______2. Ted Kennedy, according to www.foxnews.com, states that “In launching the war against Iraq, the U.S. may precipitate the very threat we are intent on preventing.
___C. The same Time article states that T.V. could now bring images of the war to civilians.
______1. Al-Jazeera television is now in place.
______2. This could create even more distrust in America among Arab nations.
Conclusion
I. (signal the end) Given this information, it at least must move one to question the tactics trumpeted by Washington in the last couple of months. Instead of isolating Iraq, a unilateral strike would isolate the U.S.
II. (refer to the beginning) Sun Tzu said it right by noting “the general who loses the battle makes but few calculations beforehand.” Let us hope that is not us.
References
Davis, B. (2002, September 16). Bush economic aide says cost of Iraq war may top $100 billion. The Wall Street Journal, pp. A1, A8.
Fox News. (2002, September 25) Report: next attack could top 9/11. Retrieved November 13th, 2002 from www.foxnews.com.
Fox News. (2002, September 27) Key democrat opposes Iraq action. Retrieved November 13th, 2002 from www.foxnews.com.
McGeary, J. (2002, October 14). Iraq: 7 questions to ponder . Time Magazine.
Nussbaum, B. (2002, October 7). Foreign policy: Bush is half right. Business Week, p. 46-47.
Tzu, S. (1983). The Art of War. (Clavell, J., Ed.). New York: Dell Publishing.
Notice that there are no italics. I must be smarter than the entire Republican party and all their supporters combined. Although that is not saying much.
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
