What are the chances of the next pope being a woman?

[Goathead]

Seriously. I would like to see the statistical breakdown of what the odds of that happening would be. What cosmic forces would have to come together for the conclave to elect a female pope. I mean somebody must calculate these things. You can place a bet on anything in Vegas.

[Richardo]

1. Zero.

Canon law specifies a man. That's it.

[Goathead]

5. Yes, Cannon Law specifies

But statistical there must be a chance. Say if every male on the planet died from "Jackov's" disease.

[bloom]

29. I wonder if "every" Catholic woman went on strike

if that would help...


Probably not.

[Zynx]

60. Some things have no statistical chance

For example, if I dump you out in space without a suit - you have zero chance of surviving.

[Goathead]

65. Simply not true.

You would have a statical chance of survival up to the point that you stopped breathing.

[LuminousX]

54. Any chance one of the cardinals is a woman in disguise?

[Richardo]

55. NOBODY expects the Spanish Inquisition!

:)

[goddess40]

2. Women are second class members of the Catholic church

The chance is a big fat zero!

[Phentex]

3. Zip. Transgendered or homosexual have better odds.

[Hugin]

4. Every single male member of the church would have to be...

unable to serve. Even the Alter Boys.

There are strict "prior service" qualifications for
being Pope. One of them is being ordained. Since the
Catholic Church does not ordain women. It's an impossibility.

[Dogmudgeon]

26. Nope, no ordination is necessary

The only qualification for the Papacy is to be a Catholic man who has been absolved of his Mortal sins by the sacrament of Confession.

In practice, of course, it's a lot different.

--p!

[Hugin]

28. What about all that talk I heard about them needing to speak at least...

three languages?

I know that's what took me out of the running.

;)

[theboss]

32. Any Catholic Man can become Pope

But upon being named Pope, they have to be ordained into every office first. So, if my Dad was voted Pope next week, they would quickly name him Father Jim and have a ceremony. Then Bishop Jim. Then Cardinal Jim. (All in the course of a few hours). Then he would become Pope Jimmy the First.

[Nobody]

74. I wonder what mystical ceremony they use a penis for

Since it's the most important requirement.

One source I read back when I was studying for confirmation in the Catholic church stated that any male can be chosen. Catholic wasn't stated.

[leyton]

82. You have to be baptized and confirmed, I think.

I don't know that there's a formal definition of "Catholic" other than those two sacraments.

[JerseygirlCT]

33. Forget the church only

they'd go for any baptized male, regardless of denomination before a woman.

Heck, they'd go find a guy and baptize him just to make him pope before a woman.

[cynatnite]

6. About as good as me having a torrid affair with Limpballs

:eyes:

/sarcasm off

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

7. There is no chance. There aren't even female PRIESTS.

[mmonk]

8. You mean like

pope Joan?

[mondo joe]

9. Slightly less impressive than the chances of a chicken

elected pope.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

10. Zee-ro

The most prominent candidates are all cardinals, and to become a cardinal, you have to have been ordained a Catholic priest at some point, and that effectively bars all women.

[theboss]

11. The pope by definition must be a man

Any baptized Catholic male can be Pope. That's it. Fort Pitt.

[REACTIVATED IN CT]

12. Zero in our lifetime n/t

[Goathead]

13. The chances are not zero, it could happen.

Scenario: A group of disenfranchised militant nuns seize control of the Vatican, ordain themselves as cardinals, and elect a female pope from one of their own. Though remote, the possibility exists that that could happen.

[Hugin]

16. Must be an interesting world you live in Goathead...

I envy the cotton candy snow and the cheese wiz rain.

I miss out on the talking unicorns and the friendly
money trees.

Also, the rollerskating bears and the no-cal all-you-care
-to-eat buffets.

But, alas, into every life a little reality must leak.

A female Pope ain't gonna happen.

:crazy:

[Goathead]

19. I like to explore possibilities

Keep those neuro-pathways open.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thought_experiment

[Hugin]

23. Good for you!

Thought experiments are a nice way to think about the world.

... Also, to come up with action movie plots! ;)

(On edit: or perhaps a Burger King ad.)

[Cuban_Liberal]

17. And purple monkeys could fly outta my ass, too...

In fact, the chances of that hapening are probably greater...

:eyes:

[Goathead]

20. Were they purple when you ate them?

n/t

[Cuban_Liberal]

22. ...

:eyes:

[rman]

35. yeah, there's a chance Bush will be impeached tomorrow

-

[forgethell]

41. And they are

going to get the rest of the Church to recognize exactly how?? The dissidents all laugh themselves to death???

What's your plan to get Bush impeached?

[Goathead]

44. What do you mean "rest of the church"?

They would BE "the church" if they took over the Vatican.

[forgethell]

53. No they wouldn't.

And if they were, what's to keep the men from taking it back. Or, the Papacy could move elsewhere, leaving the nut-jobs behind in those gorgeous buildings.

[flyarm]

49. i left the church when...

i was told by a monsenior that priests will be allowed to marry before any woman is ordained as a priest!! he said there was no chance of a woman being ordained priest.

this was at a time that my monsenior was head of recruiting in the mid west ..there was a serious shortage of priests!



only more pedophile priests to come!!

fly

[Walt Starr]

71. No, militant nuns could not take over the Vatican and declare themselves

Cardinals to take the Papacy. Should such an event occur, the result would not be the Catholic Church and thus the "Pope" chosen would not be the Catholic Pope.

Various militant groups in history have attempted to take the Papacy. At one time three different men laid claim to the title of Pope. Only one of these three was the actual Pope of the Holy Roman Catholic Church, the other three were heretical pretenders.

Under your scenario, you would not have a woman Pope. You would have a heretical pretender.

There is no chance whatsoever. None, zero, zilch, nada, nichts!

[Johonny]

84. Well

Yeah if you make your own religion then your chances improve.

[Padraig18]

14. What a question!!!

The chances are zero, of course!

:wtf:

[NV Whino]

15. Zip n/t

[BurtWorm]

18. If you bet a penny on it and it comes to pass, you'll be richer than Gates

You can put that in the bank. :thumbsup:

[derby378]

21. You're kidding, right?

Is there a single female cardinal anywhere in the infrastructure of the RCC?

[Goathead]

24. Statistical probability exists for everything.

There is a probability for me being hit by a meteorite. I don't know what that number is, it is probably astronomical(pun intended) but it could happen and has happened to people.

http://uanews.ua.edu/anews2004/nov04/meteorite112404.htm

[forgethell]

42. The statistical

probability that King John I will rise from the grave and be installed as monarch of England tomorrow is how much, exactly?

And the answer is: exactly the same as that a woman will be named the next pope.

No everything has a statistical probability. For instance, there is no chance that 2 + 2 will ever equal 7. There is a slight chance (very slight, approximately equal to zero) that you will ever win the Powerball. But none if you don't buy a ticket.

[Goathead]

48. You have to think outside the box

What if I dug up King John I, he in affect will have risen from the grave, what if Queen Elizabeth II liked the idea of me having dug up King John so much that she abdicated the throne. What if Parliament liked the idea that I dug up King John so much that they wrote a law saying that King John having been dug up, is above ground and hence forth still monarch of England. Could happen, not likely, but could.

[forgethell]

52. What if you

shot a bullet straight up in to the air and it flew up your ass till it bounced off your skull?

What if you put a pot of potatoes in ice water and put them in the refrigerator for half an hour and got perfect, hot french fires when you removed them?

What if you were in charge of the next election? What's your plan to get a Democrat elected?

See, I really can think outside the box. But the chances of all three are zero. You've got a better chance of seeing a unicorn.


on edit: Actually, I've thought of one even you won't be so eager to say there's no such thing a zero probability. What if Bush is right about everything?

[Dorian Gray]

25. Zero Percent Chance.

[Avalux]

27. NONE

You must not be Catholic. :hi:

[Walt Starr]

30. Precisley a 0% chance

There is no doubt about that statement.

[Goathead]

36. Zero probability does not exist. n/t

[Walt Starr]

38. IT does in this case

There will not be a woman pope. There is no chance whatsoever because the rules of the Catholic clergy preclude women from being members of the clergy. The Pope is the head of the Catholic clergy, ergo, there is no chance whatsoever for a woman to be the Pope. None

Zilch.

Nada.

Nichts.

[Goathead]

43. You are that certain about the future?

Sorry, you are wrong. If the probability was 1:5,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 there would still be a chance. Zero probability does not exist in nature. You could come up with the most abstract scenario and then come up with the statistical information in support of that situation.

[bloom]

45. It's nice that somebody is optimistic about it.

Even if it a
15,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
chance.


What about miracles. :shrug:

:hi:

[Walt Starr]

50. There is no chance whatsoever

The rules are set and can only be altered by the Pope. Since there is no Pope, the rules cannot be changed, ergo, there cannot be a woman Pope.

[Goathead]

57. There is always a chance, even if it minuscule.

There may be a set of circumstances that we are completely unaware of that, when put into motion, will allow for there to be a woman pope. I don't know what those circumstances are or what they would have to be, but nothing in this world is set in stone.

[theboss]

62. Are you expecting a sperm whale and a pot of petunias in the sky as well?

There is an infinite improbability here.

[Goathead]

64. There is are some theoretical physicists who believe that the

there are infinite universes and that in each one, every real conceivable scenario is played out and that you will things to happen within other unverses merely by thinking of them.

[CitySky]

78. okay, I've got one!

Here's your scenario:

A new virus from outer space hits the planet tonight. It spreads rapidly, and affects every single human being with a "Y" chromosone -- killing every one of them within the next 6 days. (Sorry, guys!)

While all of the women in the world grieve the loss of our menfolk and deal with important human issues like, "can we stop having wars now?" and "who will be the starting pitcher for the New (All-Female) Boston Red Sox?" Catholic women will get their act together and elect a (female) pope.

So... do I get a prize?


(Edited for grammar.)

[Walt Starr]

69. There is not even a miniscule chance in this case

None.

The rules are explicit. There are to be no women in the clergy.

The Papacy is a part of the clergy.

The rules can only be changed by Papal decree.

There is currently no Pope, so the rules cannot be changed until there is a Pope. Once there is a Pope, the rules regarding women in the clergy can be changed, but not until there is a Pope.

So there is no chance, not even a miniscule chance, that a woman can be Pope.

Any argument to the contrary ignores reality.

[Zynx]

Yes it does in some cases

Example: I dump you out of an airlock into space and leave you there.

100% chance that you are going to die.

[JerseygirlCT]

31. Something south of zero

[JNelson6563]

34. Pope chosen from among Cardinals

know any women who are Cardinals?

Julie

[Zynx]

63. Actually Pope can be any baptized adult male Catholic in good standing

But that still excludes women.

[goddess40]

37. I am stunned that any self respecting feminist would be a catholic

I was raised in a catholic household, forced to go through first communion and confirmation. Always hated the idea of such a sexist organization and got out as soon as I could - and took my mother with me.

[luvLLB]

39. about the same as shrub being a GOOD president

[ProfessorGAC]

46. Even Lower . . .n/t

The Professor

[goodhue]

40. zero

Against the rules.

[flyarm]

47. better chance of hell freezing over!! n/t

[LuminousX]

51. Pope Joan

http://www.newadvent.org/cathen/08407a.htm

[lukasahero]

56. BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!! Best joke of the day. Thanks. nt

[SemiCharmedQuark]

58. Nil! Not only that, the list of possibilities are all very conservative.

I guess they learned from that crazy liberal pope John XXIII and his nutty beliefs.

[slackmaster]

59. Goose Egg

It's only happened once, and nobody knew she was a woman until it was too late.

[goodboy]

61. same as the chances of the pope turning protestant...(nt)

[Deep13]

66. one in crapdillion

[Goathead]

68. Now that is a number I can work with.

:P

[Goathead]

67. I can't believe all these people staunchly defending zero probability

In science there are no absolutes. Saying that you believe there is zero probability is the same as saying that you believe with %100 certainty that something will or will not happen. Sorry, reality just doesn't work that way. I can't think of anything more narrow minded and quite frankly, I am shocked that some people are exhibiting this certitude.

[Zynx]

70. The odds are so close to zero no one in the world would bet on them.

The odds of that happening are as high as someone being killed, turned to ashes and each individual speck of ash shot into remote locations of the universe coming back to life. It ain't happening. The odds are so low that if you entered the percent probability into a calculator, any calculator, it would simply call it zero.

[xpat]

72. Are you waiting for Hell to freeze over? n/t

[BrotherBuzz]

73. The three-legged-stool test precludes another woman pope.

The newly-elected pope always seats himself on a marble chair. This seat is an ancient three-legged bath stool with a hole in it so that the gender of the papal candidate can be viewed by the cardinals. The legend surrounding the use of this stool is said to be a test to confirm the sex of the pope in order to prevent any further instance of another woman (like Pope Joan) attaining the Chair of St. Peter.

This must be true, I read it on one of the internets.

[Nobody]

75. You left yourself wide open for a very tasteless smartass remark

which I will not make.

[BrotherBuzz]

79. Perhaps your unspoken very tasteless smartass remark...

should be directed towards the kids on the parochial school playground where the myth is alive and well.

Interesting, I only heard of the legend of Pope Joan and the three legged stool last night on the radio. A quick internet search confirmed that the myth does, indeed, exist, albeit in bad taste.

[Blue_In_AK]

76. One in 50 bazillion. n/t

[enki23]

77. what are the odds of every human on the planet dying

except for a couple of female catholics?

i'd imagine it's significantly lower than that.

[BlueIris]

80. Less likely than Bush personally apologizing for the stolen election.

[shockra]

81. The next pope could really be a woman...

In the sense that there could be a woman who's more spiritually advanced (not as hard as it might sound) than the "elected" pope, who controls his mind like a puppet, through spiritual channeling. So that a man is pope in name only.

Similar to the way that Bush is president in name only, and Cheney functions as the real president. Only we are aware of Cheney.

Spirituality is invisible, and those who are advanced often pull strings anonymously. Others aren't even aware they're being "herded."

How's that for thinking outside of the box? ;)

[Padraig18]

83. About the same as me sprouting wings and flying around the room.

That is to say non-existent.