Goodbye to All That Oil

[Nordmadr]

Goodbye To All That Oil
by Stan Cox


"Until recently, peak-oil analysts got about as much respect from the energy establishment as do perpetual-motion enthusiasts. But now, with oil prices headed for uncharted territory and even Saudi Arabia seemingly unable to boost production to higher levels, the peak oil idea – which says that world oil production will go into irreversible decline sometime in the the next decade or two – is quickly morphing into conventional wisdom.

Fifty years ago, geologist M. King Hubbert showed that the output of an oilfield, or indeed the oil production of an entire country, increases year by year up to the point (a "peak") at which approximately half the oil is exhausted. From there, he said, annual output drops inexorably toward zero.

Hubbert hit the bullseye with his prediction that U.S. production would peak in 1970. And over the past half century, country after country has seen its oil production hit a peak and start dropping. Yet for decades, economists, petroleum executives and government officials refused to follow Hubbert's analysis to its logical conclusion – that in the easily foreseeable future, humanity will pass over a global peak of oil production, where there awaits a very grim, slippery slope.


The Hubbert Curve, designed by geophysicist M. King Hubbert, illustrates that over time, the rate of oil production rises and then falls in a bell-shape pattern.
But gradually, in the past couple of years, the main issue in the oil debate has shifted from whether a world peak will occur to when. And when it comes to peak-oil predictions these days, there is no shortage".


more
http://www.energybulletin.net/5115.html


Olaf

[rkc3]

1. Just remember, the oil found on the earth was created less than 6,000

years ago (since the earth is only 6,000 years old - thank you creationists), so it leads one to believe that the supply should be replenished by whatever mechanism put it there in the first place.

We'll never run out.

Why the big fuss then? By a Hummer and drive real fast with the air conditioner on.

[Zynx]

2. Interestingly, if the Earth was 6,000 years old, we'd have plenty of juice

Mostly geothermal - we'd be so white hot we'd rival the sun in luminosity.

Of course, we'd probably have some issues with really, really intense sunburn but still...:evilgrin:

[megatherium]

3. I recommend the new book by Kenneth Deffeyes:

Beyond Oil, The View from Hubbert's Peak. Excellent, detailed explanations of Hubbert's analysis, and what the alternatives to petroleum (liquid oil) are. Laced with humor. (Deffeyes is a retired Princeton professor who worked for Shell earlier in his career, and who worked with Hubbert.)