HURRICANE ISABEL: The official DU tracking thread

[ShaneGR]

Please posts updates on tracking and strength, as well as your thoughts on what may happen here.

Here are the current pics as of 12:30 EST on Sunday September 14th, 2003. The storm is currently forcast to begin a swing to the NW, eventually making land fall somewhere between North Carolina and Maryland. But, the next 24 hours will go along way to finding out if this turn will take place. While the storm is beginning to move in that general direction there is still a chance the storm could refuse to weaken and continue a much more westerly approach.

[Jacobin]

1. Geeze the eye of that thing is amazing

I've been watching and running from hurricanes for years as I live on the gulf coast. Also have stayed through a couple of weaker ones.


This one is a doozy. The eyewall is extremely tight and well formed. If it maintains that strength upon landfall, its going to be one huge mess.

[ShaneGR]

4. Look at the track, it could come into Pennsylvania at about 100 mph

That would be bad. Very very bad. The area hasn't a storm like that in, well, maybe never.

[goobergunch]

21. Yeah...

the 5 AM today forecast had it going right over Chesco.

[althecat]

92. It is the most distinct eye I have ever seen too.. (two big images)

[Don_G]

2. Looks Like Weather.Com Dosen't Post Images

Try this one....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/storm3.html

[ShaneGR]

3. I think I fixed it and added some of your stuff

presto

[olmy]

6. It's heading for Washington.....Chimpy get the dog, don't drop it!

The Showtime movie, "Eye of Courage"...."tell that tinhorn Hurricane I'll be a' waitin!"

[tsipple]

7. Wonder if Bush is Going to Evacuate

I'm sure Cheney is already in his undisclosed location.

[davsand]

12. Cheney better not be in his "bunker."

As much water as that thing is carrying, if Unca Dick is in a bunker he better be wearing water wings...

I bet shrub and company are all wishing they could be on vacation in Wyoming or Texas right about now.

Many years ago I was in Alexadra VA when a tropical storm hit. The winds were one mile per hour under a hurricane. I remember sitting in the hallway of a hotel with only the emergency lights working...

I'm worrying about all the DUers on the coast out there. Keep safe everyone!

Laura

[tridim]

9. Think he'll blame it on Clinton's penis?

It does have that hole in the middle after all.

[jab105]

101. GAACK!!! haaaaa!!!!

Seriously, I went through Andrew in August 1992, these things are no fun...let's hope it goes east, you dont want to mess with the ones with the wellformed eyes...ugh!

[ringmastery]

5. nightmare

It could be a nightmare. It looks like it will rip into the outerbanks of NC at close to a cat 4. The storm surge will be something else. It'll weaken but only slightly to a Cat 3 cause a lot of it still be over water and then it would slam coastal Virginia, DC, Baltimore, Deleware.

nightmare. ugh. Can you imagine 115 MPH winds in Baltimore and DC?

[knight_of_the_star]

20. I think this might be a sign

If 115 mph winds are going to smash into DC, I think SOMEONE is trying to tell Bush SOMETHING.

[Lorien]

8. Thanks for posting this information, sgr2!

East coast DUers (that includes me) really appreciate having it as this situation develops. Let's all pray that this thing starts to lose strength!

[ShaneGR]

11. No problem.... Reality is this storm is massive

And very deadly. At this pace it will make landfall around Thursday.

[knight_of_the_star]

22. This is going to make a rather large mess

When was the last time any place was hit by a Cat 5?

[ringmastery]

23. Andrew

1992

[knight_of_the_star]

25. I was a kid then

But I can still remember what damage that one did. At least we're not dealing with something like what happened with the Storm of the Century. That kind of thing would be hellish.

[LizW]

29. I think Andrew was a 4

The Weather Channel just did a show on storms of the century and they said only two 5's have hit the US, Camile in Mississippi and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 that hit the Florida Keys.

The scary thing about Isabel is that the storm is so huge the area of hurricane force winds could to cover several states' coastlines.

I sincerely hope it weakens over the next few days.

[Chomskyite]

58. Andrew was promoted to Cat 5

About ten years later after meterologists examined the path and wreckage.

[amazona]

62. Andrew cat 5 most expensive natural disaster in history NT

.

[usregimechange]

56. 1998

In central America.

[NewJerseyDem]

33. Mitch

Hurricane Mitch hit Central America in 1998 and it was a Category 5 hurricane. It killed something like 11,000 people but that is in Central America. Hurricane Andrew was the last to hit the US and Camille was the last one before that back in 1969. Isabel will probably weaken slightly before it makes landfall though.

[Lizz612]

53. Fu......

I'm in Maryland now, not back home in Minnesota, I have to keep track of these things, remember brain, remember! Can't just look at whats over head west of here, have to pay attention to ocean now, too. Thanks for reminding me!

[Mr. Brown of MD]

66. Hey, you're in St. Mary's?

So I take it you go to the school of the same name? Just curious, I have a couple of friends who go there. I'd be surprised if you knew them though, they're both computer science majors, heh.

The thing is, even living in Maryland I've never *really* had to worry about a hurricane before right now. It would always be, "Oh, well, somewhere farther south will just get clobbered and we'll get a lot of rain." And a lot of rain's not really that bad if there's no wind, because there aren't many places that flood around here.

But this is something different.

I hope you can stay safe when this thing blows over.

-CollegeDude
Not sure how strong it will be

[tridim]

10. Too bad it isn't named "Howard"

The headline could be, "Howard takes on DC by storm".

[jiacinto]

13. It looks like DC might be Ground Zero

That would be so rare.

[ShaneGR]

15. I can't find a direct hit in the last fifty years

Here is a complete history of the Virginia area.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/valate20hur.htm

[starroute]

18. There was a hurricane in 1893 that went over DC

But it made landfall in South Carolina and was only a category 1 by the time it got to Washington. I haven't been able to find anything on what damage it may have done there.

[knight_of_the_star]

24. Shudder

How much damage did the cat 1 do? I think that this one will make it look like a healthy sneeze when they dig people out of the rubble.

[demnan]

31. Hazel was the one the old timers always talked about

and it did some damage along the shores and all. Camille did a lot damage and took out two bridges over the Occoquan River near Woodbridge, VA. That's the one I remember from the 70's, though was not a direct hit was far most devasting on the Gulf Coast. We've never had a direct hit to my knowledge in the D.C. area.

[ShaneGR]

32. Questions about DC

Can the Washington Monument survive winds above 100+??? What about all the windows on the museums?? Would the city flood?

[jiacinto]

38. I lived there before I moved to Florida

If the Potomac really flooded the Mall would be underwater. The White House would even be at risk. Basicall Washington is a large swamp. If you've ever been there you'll notice that the DC subway is the deepest in the world, with most of the escalators on the Red Line stretching as deep as ten story buildings below the ground. Downtown, which includes the mall and the monuments, would be underwater if the storm surge really got bad.

But really DC is far enough inland that any Hurricane would not be as strong, provided that the eye is on land. Now if the Hurricane is still on the coast the outer rings would hit DC. Not sure how that would play out.

[goobergunch]

42. I never thought that you moving to FL would decrease your hurricane risk

:shrug:

[jiacinto]

43. It didn't

I am just lucky that Isabel seems to be headed more to the North.

[jab105]

102. Questions about Isabel vs Andrew...

I was born and raised in south florida, so I'm up on the hurricane stuff...isn't the danger with this one that the eye is absolutely huge, Andrew was so tight that only Kendall in south Miami got creamed by it...but with an eye this big, it could really destroy a large area, even inland....that's my concern here...

One of my best friends lives in Waldorf, MD...its so close to the shore, I'm nervous for her!!

[deutsey]

112. Hello from Maryland's Eastern Shore

We're also in the line of fire.

Stay safe, jiacinto!

[inthecorneroverhere]

14. bugging out

Thanks for the pics!

If you live anywhere near the East Coast, now is the time to:

1. Fill up the gas tank ASAP - the nearer it comes, the more likely there are to be lines at gas stations.
2. Assemble a hurricane box (bug-out box) that you can put in the trunk of your car at a moment's notice. In the box, put non-perishable food, medicines, children's needs, family treasures (like pictures), flashlight, batteries, water, extra clothes, an extra pair or two of durable hiking boots or sturdy shoes (you will need good boots or shoes should you return to a hurricane-made mess of downed trees and the like), copies of homeowners' insurance policies, list of telephone numbers of family members (if not already programmed into cell phone), and of course your cell phone. Also bring stuff like credit cards and have some cash on hand. Some folks may need to bring copies of vital documents like copies of prescriptions. All this stuff will probably fill up 2 large boxes. Have as much of this stuff 'all set' in the trunk of your car, ready to go.

Did I forget anything?

edit:sp.

[molly]

16. Yep - I am going to use this to my advantage

this house is in a state of disaster - from all the constrution. I have those plastic containers sitting in my almost finished living room. They contain items from my almost finished other rooms. They need washed. I am moving them out on the deck - nothing like a good power scrub!

[Don_G]

37. I Wouldn't

The wind might catch them and hurl the containers through your window. Might want to check around for anything loose like patio furniture and possibly weak branches on nearby trees too.

[molly]

47. Yep - you are probably right

they are pretty heavy, but I wasn't thinking - DAH!!! Thanks!

[ShaneGR]

17. Perhaps make a reservation at a hotel inland

For Thursday night, if the storm doesn't hit you can simply call and cancel.

This worked for us when Andrew hit South Florida in 91. My mother made a reservation in Naples three days before. When we arrived there were dozens of families camped out in the parking lot of the hotel. We got to sleep in a nice room.

[molly]

19. I won't leave my furry kids

[amazona]

64. pet evacuation

It does your furry kids no good to get all of you killed. Yet we suffer terribly at the thought of leaving our pets. I am still haunted by a bird rescue worker's report of seeing a house swept away in Andrew with a cockatoo at the window.

Shelters don't allow pets. As you probably know. This is what you need to do: You need to scrounge or purchase carriers for each of your pets, along with sufficient food, medicine, and water for each of them to last at least several days. If you do not have a car, the time to rent a car is now. If you do, be prepared when the evacuation order is given to put the pets in the car and buckle the seat belts on the carriers or cages if possible. If you have only one or two pets, get a rolling suitcase and do not allow anyone to assist you with your suitcase. The hotel will be noisy and crowded because of the evacuation, so your pet will not be heard even if he makes a little protest while you are slipping him into the hotel. Right before you get to the hotel, pull over and place the pet(s) in the suitcase. Go check in and bring the pet upstairs in the rolling suitcase. Put up the "Do Not Disturb" sign and REFUSE maid service for the duration of your stay. You don't want anyone to come in and find your pet(s). Unless the bathroom smells strongly of cleaning chemicals, I advise placing the pets in the bathroom and keeping the door closed, to prevent them from being heard. It might sound stressful, and I admit my parrot was pretty tired of his small carrier, but it beats getting killed in rising flood waters any day of the week.

An alternate suggestion would be to contact any friends or family members you possibly can who live well inland and ask if you can evacuate with your pets to their place for a few days. You could even offer to pay them if necessary. With some relatives, all they really expect in return is a bottle of wine and a nice dinner out.

Best wishes to you and your furry friends. Keep safe. This idea might seem "tacky" but I would rather be "tacky" and smuggle my parrot into the VIP suite of a fine hotel than to risk his life and mine by refusing a mandatory evacuation order. It was only by a lucky chance that Georges turned at the last minute....it was projected to basically destroy New Orleans.

[KoKo]

89. Try Marriotts Residence Inns...they take pets...but the fees vary.....and

some of them are very expensive with pet fees. A hurricane is an emergency so you could smuggle in one of the motels that have outside entrances..... Any hotel with a back, side or outside entrance works. I wouldn't suggest that for anyother time.....but I had an emergency recently when a family member got sick and I had to take my cats......and none of the hotels would take them. Had to smuggle them into a Town Suites....and was okay......but worried the two days I was there that cleaning folks would come in even with the "Do not disturb" sign. I had to be out during the day. It worked okay...though......so in a pinch like a storm....you gotta do what ya gotta do.....

Embassy Suites hotels also usually take pets......again the fees can be high.....

[goobergunch]

27. The official forecaster keep Isabel a hurricane well inland

I'm in Chester County PA, which isn't anywhere near the coast, but I'm still worried.

[molly]

28. Delaware - north Wilmington

[goobergunch]

41. My area

I'm in Paoli, PA (Chester Co.)

[molly]

46. I used to catch the train in Paoli when I lived in Exton

when I first got to the east coast - I like it out there.

[Lizz612]

54. St. Mary's City, MD

Right on an estuary of the Patomic(St. Mary's River), south and east of DC. And I'm freaking out a bit reading this, I'm in college, I have no car, I have limited cash. I guess I'll have to trust the college on this one... :scared:

[TrueBlueDem]

93. Hey, Lizz612, you're welcome to stay with us!

We're in St. Mary's County, MD, too, about 8 miles north of the College, in the neighborhood just across the "Main Drag" from the Blockbuster, Wal-mart, etc.

Our pet name for our house is "The Fortress," because it is stem-to-stern brick on top of cinder block. It's been here 50 years and survived the worst hurricane to previously hit Maryland -- Hazel -- in 1954, not to mention the more recent hurricanes, Hugo, Floyd, Dennis, etc.

It's a safe bet this place will still be standing even if the rest of the neighborhood is leveled.

My sweetie, a retired Air Force officer, is busy this week preparing for every possible contingency, laying in supplies, and the like. So we're well prepared.

Lizz, we'd be more than happy to take in a fellow "Evil DU'er," especially a fellow midwesterner (I'm originally from Central Illinois).

Just e-mail me, if you're interested. There's always room for one more in the Fortress's basement.

[Lorien]

48. Back up your computer, get pet carriers ready

bring records of pet vaccinations and make sure pets are wearing collars with ID. Tape your windows with packing or duct tape-they tell us here in Florida that taped windows often lessen the chance of flying glass over windows covered with plywood :shrug:. You'll also need a big bottle of Orange clean to get the tape residue off later (I've found it works better than Goo gone).

[FlaGranny]

107. Duct tape is NOT stronger than plywood, Jen.

Duct tape supposedly keeps shards of glass from entering your home when the window breaks. Duct tape does nothing against a piece of someones roof from breaking your window, and I doubt it does much to keep glass out of your house, but I guess it's better than nothing. If you leave duct tape on for more than a few days, it will be absolute hell to get off.

Best thing: Commercial metal shutters.
Next best: Plywood, securely attached, 3/4 inch thick.
Last: Duct tape.

Plywood, at the suggested thickness (3/4 inch) is VERY heavy. Working probably about the same as plywood would be awnings. Window tinting material is probably better than duct tape.

[amazona]

63. a couple more things

Shelters do not allow you to bring pets. Many hotels don't either. Have proper pet carriers to secure your pets and be calling people and making plans now to stay with family or friends in a safe place if you are placed under mandatory evacuation.

Be aware that hotel rooms may be impossible to get unless you reserve them now. When the GNO area was evacuated for Hurricane Georges (which ended up hitting to the east instead of on its projected path of a direct hit on New Orleans) I personally know of people who had to drive as far as Dallas to the west and Nashville to the east to get hotel rooms. I was only able to secure a suite in Tunica (7 hours away) because I was playing for a blackjack team at that time and was on the casino's VIP list. Pets were not allowed so I had to smuggle my parrot in my rolling suitcase and not allow any bellman to help me, in case my parrot decided to speak up. Many people ended up camping by the side of the interstate. My suggestion is -- get in touch with family or friends who can put you up so you will be ready!

There is a good chance your cell phone won't work all or part of the time during the disaster.

[Best_man23]

90. More tips

Pick up all loose items outside your house, even those things you might not think of, such as trash cans. Hurricane winds can turn these objects into destructive missiles.

If you have an inground pool, drain about 6 inches of water from the pool to compensate for the heavy rainfall. If you have plastic pool furniture, protect it from loss by throwing it into the deep end of the pool.

If you plan to weather the storm in your house, make sure it is not located in a flood zone. Tape all the windows with masking tape and board/shutter them. Once the storm starts, keep a door or window on the leeward side of the house (side opposite the storm's path) cracked open to allow pressure to equalize. Wash out all bath tubs and sinks, then fill them with water for drinking and flushing the toilet.

While the "hurricane party" might be a fun way to pass the storm, do watch how much you drink. Becoming impaired during a major storm is very dangerous, as it can affect your judgment.

[goobergunch]

26. Forecast Pic #34 (11 AM EDT 9/14)

Looks like Maryland might be experiencing problems...as may I. :scared:

[ShaneGR]

30. That storm track is the worst possible scenario

A hurricane with sustained winds above 100 mph coming directly up the outerbanks; striking Virginia Beach head on; moving nw into the bay all along the Virginia coast; hitting DC head on; mopping up with Baltimore; moving into Pennsylvania and finally starting to substantially weaken.

An absolute nightmare. Complete disaster. Billions upon billions of dollars in loss and substantial casualties.

[Resistance Is Futile]

34. Global warming at work

Isabel should be a rude wakeup call for anyone who thinks climate change is 'junk science' or a problem for the far future. Such a pity it's going to miss both Texas and Florida, really. Jebland could use a multi-billion dollar blow to the head.

[NewJerseyDem]

36. What?

I don't think that the politics of a place is really relevant to where I would want it to hit. I also don't see what this has to do with global warming. Hurricane Camille was a category 5 storm and that was back in 1969.

[Resistance Is Futile]

39. Climate change

A major prediction of current climate change models is an increase in the frequency and severity of major storms. This is certainly being demonstrated now, given that it's only just over a decade since Andrew.

As for politics, the storm has to hit somewhere so one might as well wish that it hit somewhere where it would do some good. The more long term damage Florida's economy suffers, the lesser chance Jeb has for re election.

[NewJerseyDem]

40. Jeb is term limited anyway

And most disasters boost the popularity of the leader. That is what happened to George W. Bush, Rudy Giuliani and Gerhard Schroeder after the floods in Europe. So, I don't think that it would help. I also think that it is too early to just assume that because there are two category 5 hurricanes seperated by only 11 years that you can say that it is because of global warming. It might just be coincidence. And Isabel probably won't be a category 5 hurricane when it hits land anyway.

And I think that most people admit that there is global warming. They just argue that it isn't due to pollution since the Earth has gone through many periods of global warming and cooling throughout its history.

[amazona]

68. Andrew destroyed Poppy's chances of re-election

Actually, natural disasters do NOT boost a leader's chances if he refuses to fund FEMA -- did you realize that FEMA's disaster fund is seriously underfunded -- and tens of thousands of people are left homeless for many months afterward.

Did you know that Congress actually considered shutting down FEMA altogether because of its piss-poor response time after Andrew?

W. and the GOP Congress have destroyed FEMA's funding. Our town was seriously impacted by Tropical Storm Bill on June 30 -- the beginning of hurricane season -- and we were refused federal disaster assistance because there was basically no money left in the fund.

A serious destructive hurricane will indeed be another severe blow to the B.F.E.E.

Everything is politics, and not being prepared for a routine event like tropical storms and hurricanes is indeed political. We got spoiled by FEMA's quick response time during the Clinton years. Our town was stunned by the refusal of disaster aid. Just the year before we received federal disaster aid for not one but two SMALLER storms with less financial impact.

It's all about politics. You can't get away with it.

Unless the voting machines are seriously fixed, which is always possible, an Andrew style event in Florida will put an end to W's hopes of being elected rather than selected. Doesn't seem much chance of the storm hitting in Florida though.

Texans should already know that they will be refused aid -- they were refused federal disaster assistance after killer Tropical Storm Claudette, which despite killing two people was dismissed in the media as a small storm only causing some damage to beaches. I do not believe that two people were killed by damage to beaches. I believe they were killed by tree falls, and the odds are that if two trees managed to land where they could kill two people, large numbers of other trees fell where they could damage businesses and homes. But I can't get the numbers, because the media doesn't care. In my town alone, and that is one moderately sized town, it is known that over 130 trees were felled by Bill, including many oaks, including the one that destroyed my home.

Refusing to properly fund FEMA is an issue that the Democrats should not hesitate to mention in any area that has been or could be impacted by disaster.

[Lorien]

49. We have enough troubles here in Florida

without another Hurricane, thanks.

Besides, most of us voted, or tried to vote, for Gore in the last election-this IS NOT a solidly red state!

[FlaGranny]

108. Well, thanks a lot!

May no one wish such a disaster on you and yours, my kind friend.

[FireHeart]

85. Hey!

I live in Florida. What the HELL are you talking about it being a "pity" it will miss us?? Just who the heck are you say such a monstrous thing?

I hope she misses everyone.

[NewJerseyDem]

35. I remember Floyd a few years ago

That was only a Tropical Storm when it got up to New Jersey and there was massive amounts of flooding in several towns. I can only imagine what a hurricane would do. It looks like the projections have Isabel hitting farther south but New Jersey could potentially be where it makes landfall. There would be a ton of damage.

[Kool Kitty]

96. I remember that very well.

Seeing the damage it did to Bound Brook, water up to the second story in some places, with no warning. I live in central New Jersey, in Monmouth County on the bay shore, about two miles inland. I am real worried about this. My husband is in Wisconsin, and I hope he gets in all right on Tuesday night, actually early Wednesday morning. I have five cats and two turtles and I really don't have anywhere to go with them. My sister lives about five minutes away from me and my friends are closer to the ocean than we are. Yikes. I hope this either loses strength or misses us, but it doesn't look too good right now.

[Dover]

44. Yikes!

"Landfall along the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast somewhere between North Carolina and New Jersey between 4 or 5 days (Thursday or Friday) is appearing more and more likely," Stewart said. "Little or no significant weakening is expected to occur until after landfall occurs."

[Nashyra]

45. My husband left San Juan this morning

Isabel was about 340miles NE of San Juan moving at the rate of 13mph and traveling NW. His flight back to San Juan on Monday has not been canceled and it is expected to only bring rough surf and wind, BUT the big concern is for the New Jersey and New York airports on Thurs. and Friday. Not good for the east coast and especially the traveling public, not to mention the airlines, they need something this big like another hole in the head.

[Mr. Brown of MD]

67. Jesus!

No significant weakening until after landfall?

Holy shit! How am I supposed to think straight for the next five days with that hanging over my head? Damn. That's really crazy.

Maybe I won't be trying to watch it unfold from out the windows of the lobby of my dorm after all.

-CollegeDude
Outside of Baltimore

[qanda]

50. kick

For 5pm update.

[carpetbagger]

51. Looks like we're both on an unstoppable course to the 700 Club.

Four days and sixty posts left to go.

[Procopius]

52. I hope it doesn't stall out over Hatteras

Then it would really become a class 5. Remember Camille in 1969?

[bicentennial_baby]

55. UPDATE 5 Pm EDT Maps 3-Day, 5-Day

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W+GIF/141458W.gif


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/141458W5.gif


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm13+shtml/141458.shtml?

[ShaneGR]

57. According to that map track

It will be the worst hurricane in a LONG time, a full hit on Chesapeeke (Spelling?) Bay. 100+ winds in Virginia Beach, Washington DC, and Baltimore. The storm surge should be about 20 feet.

[GBD4]

72. hmm

Rochester 2 PM next Friday...but that's a very long time away, and note how wide the tracking cone is by that point--the hurricane can turn in a bunch of different directions, as long as the hurricane does make landfall, there is nothing good about it...but if its track follows the Appalachians, it would weaken much quicker

[sexybomber]

78. True, but...

Remember Floyd a couple years ago? That was substantially weakened and there was a TON of rain. If Isabel goes anywhere near Rochester (or Ithaca in my case,) you can expect tons and tons of rain.

[nostamj]

59. wow! that is one scary track

it's been about twenty years since we had a major storm in NYC. I can remember a couple of smaller hurricanes that went through CT when I was a kid. but nothing remotely as big as this thing is

[ShaneGR]

60. Basically the whole realm of possibilities are bad

Very bad.

[goobergunch]

61. That track is PERSONALLY better for me...

but would be very bad for everyone else...landfall at Virginia Beach and a nearly direct hit on Baltimore.

[soleft]

65. New York City should be okay, right?

Not to be totally self interested or anything.

[NewJerseyDem]

73. It could hit NYC

Most of the predictions seem to be saying Virginia or North Carolina but it too early too tell. Most projections provide for a larger range that extends from Cape Cod or the Hamptons all the way down to North Carolina/South Carolina border. So, NYC could theoretically be vulnerable. Also, the storm is pretty large so even if New York doesn't get a direct hit it may get some rain and winds or the remnants of the storm.

[althecat]

83. My latest check on the NOAA model forecasts NYC landfall

..a new jersey landfall and then running north straight over NYC beore heading inland... if this pans out there will be flooding everywhere from DC to NYC...

See post #81 and/or

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0309/S00119.htm

[Cheswick2.0]

111. well that one would take it right over North East Pa too

It would have lost power by then, but still a scary mess. During Andrew we thought we were safe because we were about 10 miles inland. However the freakin thing ripped right across the state without stopping. I was in Ft Lauderdale but the outer bands were bad enough to rip up trees right out of the ground.

[jmowreader]

69. From the Home Depot Man (no, this is not an ad)

First things first: make sure you have a week's worth of canned goods. If a window breaks and water gets in, you can pretty much kiss your flour, bread, etc., goodbye.

On plywood, OSB and other sheet stock: not only is it the highest it's ever been, there is a shortage of it. Each Home Depot in the storm track got a delivery of plywood and OSB last night--I got 16 skids of OSB and 25 of plywood. There is currently no more anywhere on the eastern seaboard--some of what I have has "ship to (insert store number of a HD in Massachusetts)" painted on the side of it. We are locking the price of the lumber tomorrow; it will not go up in price until the end of the disaster. (And then it will go up so much you will not believe it; OSB was $14.75 on Thursday and $14.99 on Friday. If we're in disaster lockdown mode for ten days...)

What you should have:

* Water. Lots of water. You can't have too much.
* Gasoline. If you can safely store gasoline, get some but don't get stupid--you DO NOT need a 55-gallon drum of it! Definitely top off all your vehicles.
* If you have any cordless tools, charge all of your batteries. Right now. (Mine are already charged.) Get a 6x6 or some other piece of huge lumber and start drilling holes in it until your batteries die, then charge them all. This will give you the freshest charge possible. If you don't have any cordless tools and want some, choose one system (this way you can move the batteries from tool to tool) and get at least a drill, a reciprocating saw and a flashlight if your system offers it. If you want something inexpensive, Ryobi is decent; if you're buying pro-grade stuff, the big ones are Porter-Cable (this is what I buy), DeWalt and Milwaukee. Bosch also makes some cordless, but they're not huge players--they are, however, the undisputed market leader in Electric Jackhammers. All are good; I buy Porter-Cable because it fits my hand better than the others do. Milwaukee and DeWalt both make radios that double as battery chargers and that will operate off tool batteries.
* Is a generator a good investment? Frankly, no, unless you fall into one of a very few groups: you must have refrigeration, perhaps to store medications; you have a marine aquarium; your medical condition requires air conditioning. For everyone else, I'd recommend caching some powdered milk to use until the stores reopen, and then just buying only what you need until the power is back on at your home. If you buy a generator you have to run it every month or so to keep it operable. Most people don't do this. Given the choice of one gas-powered tool for hurricane recovery, I'd choose a pressure washer, then a leaf blower, followed by a pickup and finally a generator.
* Pickups: If you have one, you're going to gain lots of new friends. Trust me on this.
* If you have a gas grill, buy two cylinders of propane. You can cook everything on a grill. If you have kids, make sure they don't throw the main breaker after the power returns in your neighborhood because they don't want the cookout to end.

[KoKo]

76. Good tips! Plus..Fill your bathtub with water in case you can't flush....

you can use the water if you need to flush the toilet. Those on well water who lose electricity have big problems with flushing........also some municiples shut down systems. Bath tubs full of water are insurance.

Buy a small two burner camp stove...will help you make coffee, soups so you can live for a long time that way. SoCanned soups are the best! If your power is out....you can cook on your outdoor grill.....but the food goes bad too soon when you can't get ice to keep your refrig or freezer going......so lots of cans of hearty soups or canned stews are a life saver.

Powdered Milk a must for those with little kids......and a battery operated TV will get you through the days and nights without power and keep you in touch with the world. Those were the most important things when we in NC went through out hurricanes and power outages. I was without power the longest for 10 days when it was over 90 degrees.....and I didn't have a gas stove or grill. I used sterno in a fondue pot....(It wasn't a good solution) The camp stove worked great (I bought it after my bad experience with the sterno) in our Ice and snow storms the last couple of years in NC when we lost power again for days.

Lots of Soup, Powdered Milk, Camp stove, tons of bottled water and bathtubs filled with water will get you through.

[SoCalDem]

70. Evacuation map links, storm surge maps..shelter locations

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=334875

[Junkdrawer]

71. Waiting for Isabel is like Waiting for the Iraqi Invasion...

* You know it's coming

* You know it's going to be bad

* You know there's precious little you can do to stop it

[elcondor]

74. Eep! Looks like even I'll get brushed

Stay safe everyone on the East Coast! Read the plans listed above!

A kick for the night owls. :kick:

[qanda]

75. Question for Maryland-DC-Virginia people

Is it just me or are our local stations doing a piss poor job of informing us about what precautions we should be taking for this storm. I talked to some people today and they had no idea that a hurricane was coming any where near us. My husband went to the store to stock up on batteries, flashlights, water, etc. and he said there was no one else shopping for the same stuff.

I'm not in a panic, but I feel that should they give any warnings out at the last minute, this place is going to be a zoo. I guess the only thing that we can do is inform our family, friends and neighbors to take measures now just in case this storm really does follow the path that is being predicted.

[Mr. Brown of MD]

77. I think you're right

Well, the Baltimore news stations are probably having no idea what to do, this isn't a snowstorm so they can't just mention a word and having people run to the store for the essentials. But you're right, there aren't many people who seem to know about it this early.

I worked from 12-6 today and there was only one customer I handled who was buying water and batteries exclusively - one other lady was buying a bunch of water, but I get people who buy lots of water all of the time, so I'm not sure if that was related or what. The guy buying the water and batteries remarked that he was just hitting the store early in case. I guess he was the only one who really knew.

But yeah, I was operating under the assumption that everyone at least knew that there was a strong chance of the hurricane coming up this way, but none of the other cashiers seemed to know about it, and neither did the shift manager (granted, I think she's worked 2:30-11:00 the last three days and hasn't had much of a chance to notice.) Maybe people are in denial, or else they aren't paranoid enough. :)

-CollegeDude
Making some preparations now, in case

[greyl]

99. Salisbury MD here

Our stations, WBOC & WMDT, are doing a decent job because they broadcast for Ocean City MD and the Delaware Beaches.
We (PunkinPi and I) went to Giant Food Sunday evening and the staples had been ransacked - 6 gallons of milk for example. Very odd, even for a Sunday evening. I don't know how the Balt/DC stations are doing, because we only have 3 channels right now. :)

We're right on the Wicomico river, so it's a bit worrisome.
We've got a list of things to gather and protect, but we probably won't spring into action until we see what's up on Wednesday.

[molly]

110. I saw my neighbor outside last nite and she had no idea

she said "what hurricane"......

[Barrett808]

79. Looks like we may have more severe energy problems

Behind the Blackout
An Energy Investment Banker and Bush Energy Advisor Gives Unexpected Answers on the Northeast Power Grid, Peak Oil and Gas, and Much More
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/members/082103_blackout.html

...

Simmons: I have been talking for some time about the natural gas cliff we are experiencing. Many thought that this winter would be deadly, and I have to say that it's just a miracle that we have replenished our gas stocks going into the cold months. This winter could have been a major disaster. We've seen a price collapse in natural gas to the five to eight dollar range (per thousand cubic feet) and the only reason that happened was throughout almost the entire summer there were only a handful of days when the temperature rose above eighty degrees anywhere. That was miraculous. It allowed us to prepare for the winter but we shouldn't be optimistic. One good hurricane that disrupts production, one blazing heat wave, one freezing winter after that and we're out of solutions.

...

FTW: What is the solution?

Simmons: I don't think there is one… The solution is to pray. Pray for mild weather and a mild winter. Pray for no hurricanes and to stop the erosion of natural gas supplies. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it's a certainty.

[spinbaby]

80. Isn't it about to move over the gulf stream?

And isn't the gulf stream, like, really warm water? And don't hurricanes get stronger over warm water?

Please tell me I'm wrong.

[bicentennial_baby]

82. Here's a Gulf Stream Pic (Warning: BIG image)

and an Atlantic Ocean Temp composite image:

[althecat]

81. SCOOP: Super Computer Weather - Isabel Targets DC & NYC

See... NOAA supercomputer and national hurricane center forecasts..

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0309/S00119.htm

The latest forecast paths for Hurricane Isabel show the storm crossing directly over either Washington DC or New York City on Thursday. Compared with forecasts run on Saturday 13th NZT, today's forecasts show the Hurricane arriving earlier (moving faster) and the track running further West, now clearly crossing the Eastern Seaboard coast. Please note: Hurricane paths are inherently volatile and so the track of the hurricane could still vary considerably. The National Hurricane Center is now predicting landfall in Chesapeake Bay, but leaves open the possibility of a landfall anywhere from South Carolina to Massachusetts.




The latest NOAA forecasts at the bottom of this page, which show a New Jersey landfall, indicate well over 100mm of rain can be expected over a wide area.

[bicentennial_baby]

84. Whaddya think about New England?

Are we gonna get hammered, or just get a bunch of rain?

[althecat]

86. Depends.. but as the track is moving west I expect you will be ok...

This is a forecast image showing the hurricane heading inland well west of New England..

[ShaneGR]

88. That model doesn't have a direct hit on New York

It has a direct hit on everything from the outerbanks of NC, Washington DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, etc. All of them affected.

All of those cities would experience winds in excess of 80 mph (and sometimes a lot more).

[althecat]

91. Well... yes... it is a big storm...

As you say the precise landing point for Isabel is becoming rapidly kind of academic... this is a big storm, and getting bigger and accelerating.

On Saturday it was forecast to arrive on Saturday.. the forecast path is now moving west and speeding up.. NHC has it now officially heading up Cheasepeake Bay on Thursday... In the commentary on the NHC website they talk about some models making a mistake that put it further East than expeced... so as you say it may even land in Carolina...

One thing is certain..

Everyone from New England to South Carolina needs to get ready... and as you say regardless of where it lands there are going to be a swathe of cities in its path. It is that big....

[starroute]

97. I don't like that picture at all!

It shows the center of the storm moving right over my head -- the only saving grave is that the heaviest rain is shown as a little east of center.

My town is build on what used to be known as The Great Swamp. I do have a pump in the basement with emergency battery backup, but I don't know if it's up to two feet of rain.

Plus which, it's been pouring on and off for the last ten hours. Get the ground good and saturated in advance, right?

[Procopius]

87. Morehead City, NC the likely target now.

[althecat]

94. Latest Hurricane Commentary... tracked to run up Cheasepeake Bay

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm13+shtml/150258.shtml?

000
WTNT43 KNHC 150230
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA CONFIRMED 135-KNOT SURFACE WINDS AT 18Z
AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER MISSION AT 06Z...SO THE INITIAL OFFICIAL
INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 135 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED TODAY BUT A LARGE WELL-DEFINED IMPRESSIVE EYE
PERSISTS AS WELL AS IMPRESSIVE CLOUD SYMMETRY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11...IT HAS REMAINED THE SAME FOR OVER 24
HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ALSO REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS CLOSELY CLUSTERED AND SHOWING A LANDFALL IN JUST
UNDER 96 HOURS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE SCENARIO CONSISTS
OF A DEEP-LAYER MEAN HIGH SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND TWO SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
FIRST TROUGH WILL SLOW ISABELS FORWARD SPEED WHILE IT TURNS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE SECOND
TROUGH WILL CAUSE AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH
ISABEL MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY
DAY 5.

ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS...SO ISABEL IS
LIKELY TO STILL BE QUITE DANGEROUS AT LANDFALL. SINCE THE TRACK IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST AT A SMALL ANGLE...A SMALL CHANGE IN
DIRECTION COULD RESULT IN A LANDFALL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. ALSO OFFICIAL 4-DAY TRACK FORECAST ERRORS AVERAGE
ABOUT 275 MILES. WE INTEND THAT THE ISABEL FORECASTS WILL BE MORE
ACCURATE...BUT INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 24.5N 68.3W 135 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 25.2N 69.5W 135 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 26.2N 70.6W 130 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 27.6N 71.4W 125 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 28.9N 72.1W 120 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 32.8N 74.2W 115 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 38.3N 76.8W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/0000Z 45.5N 80.0W 35 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL

[SideshowScott]

95. A bit worried here..Virginia Beach VA here..Oceanfront no less

It looks like its gonna hit here dead on.I may have to evac if it stays on the path..I will keep you fellow DUers updated as long as the power is on on thurs

[althecat]

98. VA looks certain to get battered..

Yup... Either way if it tracks to the north you will still get hit hard by the west flank or of it goes south the northern flank.. and most likely it will come right over the top of you.

Here's a useful link... compares several different tracking models... all of em run over the top of VA..

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_model.html

[ShaneGR]

103. Go get wood NOW

Cover up all of your windows. Then get in your car on Wednesday and get the hell out of there.

[Zephyrbird]

116. I second that!

Take no chances--board up and tie down, and get the hell out of Dodge, SideshowScott. Good luck!!!!!!!!

[DesignGirl]

119. VA Also

I am just across the tunnel in Hampton, Buckroe Beach. I think we may need to tie down and go "west".

[althecat]

100. New NOAA forecast images.. wind and rain impact of DC direct hit

[goobergunch]

104. 5 AM EDT 9/15 5-day forecast pic

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/150858W5.gif

Looks like it's heading to D.C....

[opihimoimoi]

105. Gods Wrath on those despicable Pubs who are sinners.

What can I say???

[kayell]

115. Most permanent DC and MD residents are Dems

How about we spare everyone the divine retribution bit?

I have a lot of family and friends in the DC and MD area, and a step grandmother near Williamsburg, very worried about them all. I remember vividly the flooding damage done in 1972 by Agnes to that area - a little category 1 hurricane and not even a direct hit to DC, VA, MD.

[ShaneGR]

117. I think you need a drink

Natural disasters don't have anything to do with politics.

[KoKo]

106. Please start a Monday Thread II, for Isabel: We dial ups can't download

because of all the graphics it's getting too slow! Thanks!

[ShaneGR]

113. I'll start a new one tonight

Once we get some updated tracks this afternoon.

[Don_G]

114. The Tracks From The CISS/University Of Wisconson

Are dynmaic and update each time someone hits Refresh. Thought it might save bandwidth for everyone if I let you know.

[ShaneGR]

120. yeah, they update automatically

All of the graphics update everytime there is a change.

[Renew Deal]

109. You can see the ocean through the eye.

That is amazing. This thing will make a huge mess if it hit's land. :wow:

[ElsewheresDaughter]

118. isabel is gonna hit florida and the corporate media whores didn't want

this fact to hurt the bush*s due to W's fuck ups >>now no national guard to help protect american citizens...just 1 more to ad to bush phuck-up list....

[TrogL]

121. What are the chances of damage in Southern Ontario?

(I posted this in the other therad and it sank like a rock)

My mother lives there.

[jor_mama]

123. regarding damage in Canada

I have a coworker who is eyeing it (no pun intended) and just kind of said "ah, we'll be fine." "We" are in Texas, but he's from London, ON (I guess it's close to Toronto). I think he's going more off the "like there'd ever be a hurricane in Canada" premise rather than the actual predictions. True it will probably be considerably weaker by that time, but I'm sure it'll create quite a deluge.

[CheshireCat]

122. Looks like SC will be safe!

After going thru Hugo in 1989, I don't wish this storm on anyone. A major hurricane is a terrifying experience and the poor suffer the most because they live in trailers or clapboard houses that are usually destroyed completely.

[Chico Man]

124. Now a Cat 2 Storm

Keep weakening!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/161502.shtml?