Have you read this?.............Have a drink first

[serryjw]

---------Quote
On March 15th, 2005, (the Ides of March) we may have just witnessed the beginning of the death of our financial system as General Motors stock took a nosedive from $34/share down to $30.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GM&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

It does not seem like much (GM down just over 10% in one day), but as of March 17th, the stock is down to $28.35, and the market cap is down to $16 billion. (GM is down nearly 18% for the week.) It's the type of volatility that we usually only see in silver stocks!

What does this mean?

GM's stock price decline is like a dagger right into the heart of the U.S. financial system, and the dollar itself!

-----end quote....
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/032105_world_stories.shtml#1

[cry baby]

1. I think I'm going to start stocking up on canned goods! nt

:scared:

[anarchy1999]

8. Not a bad idea. Good luck though. How long will your canned goods

last?

Not meant to be fear inducing. Just realistic.

[cry baby]

15. Maybe dried beans and pasta? I'm actually joking, but this is a

really serious matter. How bad will it get?

[cry baby]

16. Maybe dried beans and pasta? I'm actually joking, but this is a

really serious matter. How bad will it get?

[applegrove]

2. Now do you understand why Bush assumptions about SS may differ

a great deal from democratic ones? You know that if deflation happens then bonds don't sell. The elites may know what is coming down the pipes.. but as long as Americans don't know it for the longest time possible ... the better.

You self-esteem bubble will make someone rich. If you knew the truth..how could the American Dream for corporation continue..it will take them all a 'period of time' to slowly sell their stock (divest of America) and buy into multinationals.

And it is all the Liberal Elites fault!! (or at least that is what they will say when America tanks and the rich had time to get rid of the mortgages and the middle class did not). Why do you think it is up to overseas organization to call out across that great big ocean and say: "you may want to rent and not buy a house these days..".

[The Lone Liberal]

10. I have considered for sometime that the true reason

behind this rush to change SS may be due in part to the ruling class knowing that wages are on the verge of taking a nose dive.....

If it takes three workers to pay for one retiree today, what will be the ratio if wages are cut in half or more.

[applegrove]

38. For sure there will be low levels of deflation just like in Japan &

Germany lately. That is what happens when you send your whole civilian goods market abroad (which you have to do or be shut out of the markets abroad that will result in caveman depression).

The elites know it. Don't you think the people of the USA should know that the reason why SS should not be attached to wages but to price of goods - is because wages are 'sticky' on the way down and what it will actually cost for rent, groceries will be going down a little bit - so why would the government want to pay for a nice lifestyle for people.

In deflation (and low deflation) it is normal for debtors to get creamed... so the word now should be: do not go into debt. Even the SS doesn't want to be as much in debt to retirees as they would be without a change. Also bond markets are affected. There may be no growth in bonds. So in that case the government should invest the SS in the market (why make the people do it individually). And by market I mean stock market where many corporations will be making their profits in the growing countries abroad.

But Bush does not tell us this. He lets the argument go on and on without talking about the assumptions his guys see. And he refuses to put his assumptions on paper. He does not want to hurt the confidence of consumers...what when all his rich friends have the good investment advice and know what is coming while the average consumer does not. Bush does not want to start a recession so bad that he went to war and put off the 2001 recession until some poor democrat gets into power. Oh and the federal government will be in debt. But the rich will do great. They will take their tax breaks and invest in companies that are multinationals. As long as the rich are okay - it doesn't matter if people have been going into debt for the last 5 years on Bush's advice.

[jojo54]

3. Wasn't it just on the news yesterday or today

that they are planning to lay off some 100K workers, or something like that? My, my, this will be bad for *. We won't hear anything about the unemployment rate for awhile.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

19. I believe they will lay off mainly white collar workers

Up to 20% of the white collar workers in some departments. This is the middle class now being affected, and possibly many Republicans. They are also asking the Union to pay a bigger portion of their own health benefits. GM is definitely on a downward spiral. If GM starts sliding downhill, there may be other related industries that are also hit hard.

[anarchy1999]

4. We've got a to go kit ready in the house along with lots of water.

It is coming. What is it? Who is to know, but "it" is going to be harsh. "It" is the fall.

[brainshrub]

5. The competent leadership of George W. Bush will help prevent a disaster.

Hahahaha! Just kidding! We're fucked.

[K-W]

6. I just hope sanity prevails and we can move to a stable sustainable

economy in my lifetime.

But its hard to imagine this wont just end badly...

[imenja]

7. I guess I'm not smart enough to be frightened by this

I don't really know what it means. What are Silver Stocks? Wall Street is having a period of downturn. Is that supposed to mean the entire economy is on the verge of collapse? I'm not sure it's quite so dramatic as that.

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[imenja]

13. and what history would that be?

please enlighten me. I must have missed the section on GM stock on my PhD comps.

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[imenja]

21. you need to make your historical parallels explicit

Cryptic references are far from convincing. I actually scored the highest possible marks on my Phd comps, so thankfully your very rude comments were not part of the PhD committee's review process.

We have had a number of stock crises in American history. The only one that led to extended depression was 1929. Changes in the financial structure since then are meant to mitigate against that sort of collapse. Subsequent collapses, such as 1967 and 1987 did not have any where near the same kind of consequence.

There is also the obvious point that GM's stock decline relates to the rise in the price of oil. The economy has gown through various transformations in which once powerful companies became increasingly less significant. Steel and coal are two examples.

Your rather condescending and glib reply tells me you likely know very little about history. I may be wrong on this, but you'll need to provide some evidence for your argument to suggest otherwise.
Whatever your argument is, you need to make it. Rude remarks do not pass for intellectual exchange.

[Spider Jerusalem]

24. There really are no historical parallels for this.

And while we've had a number of stock crises in US history, the current situation is fundamentally different.

The decline in GM's stock DOES relate to the price of oil, but there's a larger subtext that bodes ill for the US economy as a whole. Economic growth is predicated upon continual access to sufficient energy sources, which aren't there now. OPEC is producing at maximum capacity, and world energy demand is greater than energy availability. The increase in oil prices will lead not only to higher costs for fuel, but for EVERYTHING else, from food to clothing to writing paper, considering that production and transport costs are factored into the final price. Besides which, petroleum avaliability will be reduced, since there simply isn't any more to be had than is already being produced. Sure, there are other oil fields, not yet in production, but it takes up to a decade to bring a new field on-stream, and coupled with declining Middle East production and increased world demand, by the time those sources are available, they won't be enough to mitigate the shortfall. Essentially, the era of economic growth is OVER.

And secondly, GM's situation isn't that different from the situation of the nation as a whole. The United States has been a net debtor nation for nearly twenty years; the only thing maintaining the house of cards that is the US economy is credit. This credit takes the form of bonds sold to subsidise the debt of the Federal government, and the usual practice has been for our creditors to roll over the debt at the end of the contract. That's not happening now.

Thirdly, General Motors is the world's largest manufacturing corporation, the biggest secondary-sector domestic employer, and a cornerstone of our modern industrial economy. Its collapse would send very strong and clear signals that the US economy is, to phrase it inelegantly, fucked, and would likely trigger a corresponding decline in the stock of Ford and DaimlerChrysler AG, and dollar sell-offs around the world, thanks to the fact that trouble for the auto industry means trouble for the oil industry, the rubber industry, the electronics industry, the steel industry...this is the sort of thing that has the potential to set of a cataclysmic chain reaction, leaving the economy AND the standing of the dollar in shambles.

[imenja]

34. I thank you for your analysis

What you offer here is a cogent and thoughtful explanation of the problem rather than the glib insults to which others have resorted.
The oil problem is indeed a serious one. I was disappointed that John Kerry did not highlight this better in his presidential campaign. Bush's insisting on propping up fossil fuel companies, resisting stronger CAFE standards, and failing to invest adequately in new energy technologies is not only a perilous economic position, it also compromises our national security. I only hope that Democrats will make this clear in upcoming elections so that we can ween ourselves from the dependency on oil. The oil situation only gets worse from here on out.

I certainly don't doubt that the Bush administration's economic policies are dangerous. What I do object to, however, is when posters resort to trivialities rather than engaging in thoughtful analysis. Your post is far more compelling.

[Spider Jerusalem]

41. You're welcome...

and I'm not so hopeful, myself, unfortunately. We don't have the lead-time we need...if people had listened to Jimmy Carter a quarter of a century ago, we mightn't be faced with the problems we're going to be experiencing soon,

But then, we ALSO have Carter to thank for the "Carter Doctrine", which in extreme form is the casus belli for our recent imperial adventures. The Carter Doctrine states that access to Middle Eastern petroleum represents a key strategic interest of the United States, and that military force will be used if necessary to ensure uninterrupted flow. To some extent, the Bush administration's geostrategic planning seems to have as a focus securing a future resource base through military means.

[imenja]

47. we now reap the national security consequences of that access to oil

and it's very difficult to argue that it favors our current national security.

[bpilgrim]

70. it goes back to the end of WWII, actually

though JC sure made it EXPLICIT.

apparently big bidness thinks with the 'bear' out the way we will have no competitors of military significance.

i'm sure we will never hear reports of the ME resistance running out of ammo.

peace

[Bouncy Ball]

60. Well if THAT wasn't the most fucking depressing thing

I've read in a long time.

Wait, I have to get myself off the floor.

BUT I thank you for writing it. It's chilling, but I appreciate reading it.

:cry:

[Name removed]

33. Deleted message

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[Name removed]

48. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DulceDecorum]

18. Think of it this way

in another few months, you might be getting paid in beanie babies.

How are you going to be able to cope with that?

[Name removed]

20. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[imenja]

23. yes, that much is obvious

Your rudeness is shocking. Today you prompted great numbers of posters to wonder if you were advocating pedophilia because you were unable to write a simple declarative sentence. I actually defended you because I felt sorry for you. You have made it clear to me that I was foolish to treat you with the level of compassion and thoughtfulness that you refuse to extend to others. I will not make that mistake again. You would do well to think more carefully about dismissing the intellectual abilities of others. If you're interested in my PhD research, you can always go through the notes on the tens of thousands of Portuguese language manuscripts I have. Since you're so much smarter than I, I'm sure you'll be able to write a much better book with them than I possibly could. The academic presses will be lining up.

[Name removed]

35. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[imenja]

37. that does nothing to explain your rudeness

that you use to substitute for saying anything substantive on the subject. If you have a point to make about the history or economy, make that clear. But insulting me instead of formulating an analysis is simply unacceptable. I do not allow others to treat me in an abusive fashion, which is precisely what you have done here.

If you want to see a worthwhile post on the subject, read Spider Jerusalem's.

[anarchy1999]

40. See post 39. I hope you read up.

n/t

[imenja]

22. and what makes you think that will happen?

Becomes one stock has turned downward. Or is it that you despise George Bush so much you actually want us all to experience tremendous economic hardship?

[DulceDecorum]

26. My, my, how nicely you do ask!!

Have you considered a job representing the US at the UN
or perhaps a US-sponsored position at the World Bank, hmmm?

Lift up your keyboard and see where it was made.
NOT THE US.
Take a look at the label on your shirt or blouse.
NOT THE US.
Take a look a the label on your underwear.
NOT THE US.
Wake up and smell the coffee which is
NOT FROM THE US.

Just walk around your house and put all the things that are actually
Made in the US
in one pile.
ONE VERY SMALL PILE.

That pile will probably be about the size of the average hemorrhoid.

OK, now,
realise that EVERYTHING ELSE in your house,
plus the gasoline you will use tomorrow to go to work
(assuming you work)
all that other stuff comes from the rest of the world and they are fed up with the US not paying them and threatening them and they are not going to take the US crap anymore.

So, enjoy you keyboard,
and your shirt or blouse
and your underwear
and the last drop of coffe in your cup,
because
no-one wants the yankee dollar anymore
not even to wipe their ass with.

[bigtree]

27. I'm about as ignorant as we come but I can see the signs of collapse

all around me.

I have a co-worker who has about two months left on his temporary visa till he has to go back to the Chech republic. He explains in his broken, limited english how worthless the dollars he's been saving will be on exchange when he gets home.

I work at a grocery store. All of the non-union stores have already defined a work week down to 30 hrs. Our union shop is sure to follow. BTW, our Dutch-owned company will soon be Japanese-owned. :scared:

[DulceDecorum]

28. Your co-worker

is very lucky.
Even if he does not yet see it.

[Name removed]

30. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[imenja]

36. WTF are you talking about?

[imenja]

31. GM stock, outsourcing, and the decline of the dollar.

Those are three distinct economic problems. The later two don't relate in any direct way to the original post. I'm still waiting for an analysis that tells me how you think this will lead to financial collapse. I'm not saying it's possible, but I'd like to see something that demonstrates how or why. Simply asserting what you see as self-evident isn't sufficient. If you do have some thoughts on how you see this happening, I look forward to reading them.

[DulceDecorum]

43. WHAT does GM actually make within the US?

Because if they do a lot of outsourcing
http://www.lsj.com/news/business/040323_gm_1a-5a.html
then they need foreign exchange.
The dollar used to be the medium of international monetary exchange,
HOWEVER,
the dollar is declining in value and in desirability.
Since everyone is dumping the dollar, then GM needs to acquire euros to pay its foreign workforce.
Since the euro is stronger than the dollar, GM is losing money.
Since GM is losing money, the value of GM stock is falling.
Since GM's stock is falling, foreign investors are pulling their money out instead of pumping it in.
Since the foreign investors are withdrawing their funds, then GM has to reduce its operating budget.
Since GM has to reduce its operating budget, it is not able to make a lot of product overseas.
But since GM has outsourced its operations, then GM must continue to keep its offshore operations going, even though they are no longer as profitable.

And this is all occurring BEFORE we get to the part where rising gasoline prices cause people to forego car purchases.
And why are the gasoline prices rising within the US,
a nation founded on piracy,
which has been known to re-flag oil tankers which are legally registered to other nations?
OH yeah, because the US has to IMPORT gasoline and has nothing
OTHER THAN BOMBS
to give in exchange.

Now, what was your question?

[Name removed]

45. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[imenja]

49. so when do you anticipate this happening?

Do you have a time frame? Did you previous post say three or six months? There really is no need to be so defensive. I asked if you had some analysis to offer on the subject. I realize that's a novel concept for many here. Most prefer glib comments to actual thoughtful analysis, but you were generous enough as to provide some, and I do appreciate it.

I still am wondering how this particular juncture in the economy is radically different from say, one or two years ago. Why do you see the collapse as imminent now?

There are some possible positive aspects of the rise in oil prices and the decline of car purchases. If we take action to gear our economy toward more modern, fuel efficient technologies as the Europeans are doing, we might experience growth in the long term, even if we suffer shock in the short run. Such changes, however, require a change in presidential and legislative leadership.

[Jose Diablo]

55. I am no expert, but I have noticed a few things over the last few decades

Beginning with Reagan, there has been a push to deregulate various industries and markets under the idea that regulation is bad and the 'free' market is far more efficient in regulating the markets.

Now regulation was put in-place for a reason. FDR did not just regulate to be doing something. These 'free' market guru's have taken what was a carefully monitored somewhat low risk way of operating the various economic systems into a brave 'new' world of profiteering by the swash buckling pirates.

Examine each market, for example, take energy generation, hmmm Enron? Then there was the S&L's, well plenty of bad paper for good caused very expensive bail-outs. Don't forget the structural separation FDR placed between banks and the stock market, designed to prevent the collapse of one collapsing the other. Well our leaders, both Rep and Dem, dismantled these protections in addition to just recently disallowing a chapter 7 bankruptcy to give relief to those way over their heads with credit cards.

The reason previous downturns have not propagated to other sectors of the economy was because of those regulatory structural separations between the markets. FDR's protections are gone. So what we have is like a carnival conman playing guess which shell has the pea. The answer is, none of them because he has palmed the pea overseas.

[DulceDecorum]

56. Remember Detroit?

Hardly anyone does these days.

Detroit was the center of the car-making universe.
If memory serves, I recall hearing about some newly-independent nation that sent a representative over to arrange the purchase of government vehicles. These included police cars and vehicles to transport government workers and also government property.
The boys in Detroit had no time for a dark-skinned foreigner
and especially one who insisted
that the vehicles all have the steering wheels placed on the other side.
So they sneered at him and showed him out.
He sat in his hotel, trying to figure out HOW he was going to return to his nation and tell them that he had failed in his mission.
And then a Japanese man knocked on his door.
The Japanese man was most courteous and politely asked if his country could have the honor of supplying the vehicles. He admitted that Japan had just started making cars and that they were not as good as those made in Detroit but he also promised that if and when a vehicle broke down, Japanese technicians would be there, (if granted visas) to fix the problem and also to figure out how to improve the vehicle design so that the problem did not occur again. He offered a reduced price in view of anticipated problems and asked for the host nation to be patient while the initial kinks were being worked out.

Who do you suppose got THAT particular contract
and maintains it to this very day?

Look around the next time you find yourself in a parking lot.
Pick out the vehicles made in Detroit.
And remember,
parking lots OUTSIDE the US will ALWAYS have far fewer US-made cars than the parking lots in Michigan.

GM really won out, huh?
That's why Michael Moore wanted to go see Roger, hmm?

As for the leadership,
A) there is none,
B) getting one is not going to change anything.
The US, like Europe,
has never really had anything to trade
but has always had the desire to live beyond its means.
And now, the Repo Man cometh
and he taketh back
that which was never paid for.

You are still harping on fuel.
The reason why the US is so adamant about cars guzzling as much fuel as possible is because the US pretty much controls the shipping on the high seas.
The US was founded on piracy.
Yeah, George Washington was a pirate,
or at least, the Mac-Daddy
Capo Di Capi Tutti
behind the British and American pirates hanging around the US coastline.

I do not expect many US citizens to know or accept that.
Not after watching Leno Jaywalking
and hearing the answers he receives
from highly intelligent people
who have done considerable amounts of time
in US institutions of higher learning.
This is NOT taught in school.
Hardly anyone within the US understands that at the time of the Revolution, the US did not have a viable navy and that Britain practically ruled the seas
UNTIL
the US enlisted the assistance of er, um ....
people who have been kept out of the history books,
-- yes, that's the ticket.

The US forces Saudi Arabia to "sell" their fuel at a reduced rate to the US in exchange for "protection" for the tankers leaving the Persian Gulf.
Look at every single choke point of international shipping and observe the US warships patrolling those waters.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/choke.html
http://www.converger.com/eiacab/choke.htm

Why do you suppose Afghanistan was attacked?
Osama?
Puleeze.
Osama and his dialysis machine are still at large.
Bush has even admitted that he neither knows nor cares about Osama's whereabouts.
The pipeline.
Pipelines are replacing tankers as a method of oil transportation.
This means that the pirates are being forced to become landlubbers.
Now, if the demand for oil were to plummet,
the pirates would be plumb out of business.
Just like that.
SNAP.
Which is why alternate technologies are ROUTINELY suppressed,
(Rockefeller v Tesla)
Kyoto is bashed,
and is also one of the major reasons why
the US has placed nuclear bombs in at least 27 nations without their knowledge or consent.
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/news/19991020/
The only card,
other than oil
that the US has to play,
is that of fear.
Double plus good.

Iraq is an example
of what will happen to those nations that step out of line
and switch from using the dollar
and subsidizing the US economy.
Iraq has kicked the snot out of the drunken junky nose of **.
And so the US now has a full-fledged mutiny of global proportions on its hands.
They are hoping that Bolton will intimidate the UN into blind obedience
while Wolfowitz loots the till of the World Bank.

NOTES FOR CONSPIRACY THEORISTS

"Whosoever commands the sea commands trade; whosoever commands the trade of the world commands the riches of the world, and consequently the world itself".
-- Sir Walter Raleigh
http://www.history.navy.mil/nan/designat/carrierbased/fighter/fightermain.htm

William M. Arkin, a co-author of the article, points out that while historians knew that nuclear weapons were stored in some countries, they were unaware about others and knew nothing of the details. The Pentagon document, he says, fundamentally revises post-war nuclear history.
"There isn’t a nuclear analyst alive who didn’t believe that the first U.S. nuclear weapons deployed overseas were sent to Britain," he says. "Now we know they actually went to Morocco first." Arkin also is the co-author of "Nuclear Battlefields" (1985), the first book to document the worldwide nuclear infrastructure.
"Where they Were" is based upon the formerly top secret study, "History of the Custody and Deployment of Nuclear Weapons: July 1945 through September 1977," which was prepared by the Office of the Secretary of Defense in 1978. The Pentagon declassified and released only portions of the document, however. The authors had to apply much detective work to piece together the picture they provide in their article. For instance, the Pentagon blacked out the names of many of the countries, but given that an appendix listed them in alphabetical order, it was not difficult for the authors to figure them out. Only one nation, blacked out between Canada and Cuba on the list, remains a mystery.
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/news/19991020/
Friday, March 18, 2005; Page C01
Someone has gone to a great deal of trouble to produce a document accusing journalist and activist William Arkin of serving as a spy for Saddam Hussein.
The Pentagon says the supposed Defense Intelligence Agency cable is a forgery. Arkin says it's "chilling" and is demanding an investigation. The NBC News military analyst says he became aware of the bogus document when a Washington Times reporter called about the spying allegation and sent him a copy.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45614-2005Mar17.html

The Strait of Malacca ends up in the South China Sea, another extremely important shipping lane and a region subject to contention since oil and natural gas resources are present. The Spartly and Paracel groups of islands are claimed in whole or in part by China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei and the Philippines. The region has proven oil reserves estimated at about 7.0 Bb with oil production accounting for 2.5 Mb/d. With the substantial economic growth taking place in the region large flows of oil, liquefied natural gas and other raw materials (iron ore, coal) are transiting towards East Asia. About 25% of the global shipping fleet transits through the region each year, underlining the importance of the South China Sea as an extension of the Malacca chokepoint.
http://www.people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch5en/conc5en/ch5c1en.html
From an economic and strategic perspective the Straits of Malacca is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world, an equivalent of the Suez Canal, or the Panama Canal. The Straits form the main ship passageway between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, linking three of the world's most populous nations: India, Indonesia and China. The Straits carry 50,000 vessels per year, carrying between one-fifth and one quarter of the world's sea trade. Half of all oil shipments carried by sea come through the Straits, in 2003, an estimated 11 million barrels a day, a trade that is expected to expand as oil consumption rises in China.
http://www.answers.com/topic/straits-of-malacca
Wednesday, February 23, 2005 Posted: 8:16 AM EST (1316 GMT)
The presence of foreign military in Indonesian waters has traditionally been a touchy issue. The waters around the epicenter of the tsunami and earthquake, which fall within the Malacca Strait, are also sensitive areas.
http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/02/23/tsunami.seabed.reut/
Article III
http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/enmod/text/environ2.htm
http://www.atomicarchive.com/Treaties/Treaty12.shtml

[imenja]

58. Would you please answer the question about when?

When do you see full financial collapse happening? In three months, six months? Why then? Why now and not five years ago, or last year?

The distinction between American and foreign made cars is increasingly diffuse. My car is a Ford made by Mazda. GM and Ford make cars for US markets in Mexico. Toyota and Honda have plants here that produce cars for US markets. Capital is increasingly internationalized. But how much of a difference does it make for the American worker whether profits go to GM or Toyota? What are the reasons for your own concern about GM's decline?

"The US, like Europe,
has never really had anything to trade"

(it's quite lovely how you write in verse instead of the expository paragraph traditional in the English language). I think, if you reflect on this phrase a bit, you'll realize it's not accurate. England was the birth of the industrial revolution. It traded textiles and other manufacture red goods throughout the world. The US rose to take it's place. If your use of the term "never," however, refers only to the last 30 years, your point is a little clearer. Here I assume you're talking about balance of trade. Of course the US does export a great deal, but as you rightly note, far less than we import.

"You are still harping on fuel.
The reason why the US is so adamant about cars guzzling as much fuel as possible is because the US pretty much controls the shipping on the high seas.
The US was founded on piracy.
Yeah, George Washington was a pirate,
or at least, the Mac-Daddy
Capo Di Capi Tutti
behind the British and American pirates hanging around the US coastline."

Evidently your frame of reference here not extends back further than the 1970s. You must have enjoyed Pirates of the Caribbean a great deal. Pirates, or more appropriately privateers, as Fernando Novais observes, represented a contradiction in the colonial system (pre-1800s) because they violated traditional mercantilist restrictions put in place by the Spanish, Portuguese, and British Crown. And Adam Smith thought he had done away with such irritating problems. Why you've chosen to include this lyrical ditty is a bit confusing. What is your point here, other than to declare myself and the rest of your countryman far too ignorant to understand your verse?

And I'm so sorry to harp on oil. Silly me, I thought such things mattered, especially since you spoke about it in the post to which I responded.

What your post presents, in a unique fashion, is a series of well-acknowledged problems about the American economy. What it does not do is answer the question of why you see the collapse of the US economy as imminent, why in another few months "I'll be getting paid in beanie babies," as you noted. This was the question I posed several posts ago to which you have thus far declined to respond. I have never disputed that the US economy has a myriad of significant problems. Nor do I dismiss the possibility that the economy may collapse in the future. What I have asked is why you think that will happen now or in the immediate future? Timing does matter. What I seek here is clarification of your views on the subject.

[DulceDecorum]

61. I keep telling you people

that what DulceDecorum thinks or feels or believes about ANYTHING
is NOT THE ISSUE.
I am not willing to play the game of a tobacco executive being questioned by Senate.
"I believe this, I think that."

imenja says:
When do you see full financial collapse happening? In three months, six months? Why then? Why now and not five years ago, or last year?
WHY NOT ASK ALAN GREENSPAN?
Why the fixation on the posts of DulceDecorum?
Incidentally, imenja, you are not very polite at all.
Ahh for the days of the finishing schools,
when courtesy was considered to be the mark of the high civilized.

As for the FACT that Europe and the US and have not ever had ANYTHING considered to be of high value by the rest of the world, you have but to look at at the history of international trade.

WHAT has Europe or the US EVER SUPPLIED to its trading partners, hmmm?
CONCRETE ANSWERS PLEASE.
Remember that your own US underwear
is made outside the US
because the US overall,
is simply not up to the task of constructing a decent crotch,
mouthy as their leaders may be.

You mentioned Britain.
Allow me to scoff openly -- at
the US higher education system.

WHY did Britain
and Europe
and the US
all gang up on China?
Ever heard of the Opium Wars?
Do you actually KNOW the TRUE story behind the world's first international drug cartel? Or are you simply one of those who sneers at Larouche when he mumbles about the British Crown and drug trafficking?

Look at the raw materials that Britain etc needed to enact the so-called Industrial Revolution.
Where did they come from?
Now go do some reading on the Scramble for Africa.
Take a look at the workers in the US when cotton was king.
What color were they and where did they come from?
Britain and the US maintained slave ships
and slave markets
LONG after every other nation on this planet had condemned the practice.
Tell us WHY
thousands of Africans were kidnapped and forcibly transported into the Western hemisphere by bastards such as the one who penned "Amazing Grace."

Look over at at the rolling hills of Pennsylvania and let your eyes settle upon the town of Hershey. Trace the raw materials of this chocolatier back to their source.
Now go look up the word PARASITE.

Fernando Novais has his opinions
but few in the US know or care about him.
The opinions of Fernando Novais have done NOTHING to change the course of history and flag of the skull and bones still flies on the US/UK navy.

[imenja]

66. okay, here are a few

WHAT has Europe or the US EVER SUPPLIED to its trading partners, hmmm?
CONCRETE ANSWERS PLEASE.

Okay, here are a few: cotton, sugar, tobacco, textiles, ships, shoes, steel, railroads, industrial technology, computers and computer technology, oranges, beef, soy, grain, aviation technology, and don't forget arms: the US still leads the world in arms production. The list could go on for twenty full posts. A US or European history textbook will provide many other examples. Economics texts would likely do so as well.

If what you think doesn't matter, there is not point in my bothering to read your posts, is there? You make a glib comment about Beenie Babies but are unprepared to substantiate it. Very well. Given you acknowledge that you have nothing to say, I'm done reading.

[DulceDecorum]

72. Bombs, yes,

because they have never had anything else that anyone ever really wanted.
Drugs also.
http://sun.menloschool.org/~sportman/westernstudies/second/24/cblock/patr/

Lets look closely at the list imenja provided before flouncing off in abject defeat.
What has Europe or the US EVER SUPPLIED to its trading partners?

cotton, SLAVERY,
sugar, SLAVERY
tobacco, CANCER
textiles, SWEATSHOPS
ships, TITANIC (sank, unlike the Chinese junk it was modeled after)
shoes, WTF???? OJ's UGLY-ASS BRUNO MAGLIs?
steel, AIR & WATER POLLUTION, STRIP-MINING, BLACK-LUNG
railroads, MONOPOLY, WHOLESALE LOOTING OF NATURAL RESOURCES
industrial technology, YOU HAUL 16 TONS & WHAT DO YOU GET?
computers and computer technology, MADE IN CHINA
oranges, MIGRANT LABOR
beef, MAD, QUITE MAD
soy, FACTORY FARMING OF LIVESTOCK, PROCESSED FRANKENFOODS
grain, GENETICALLY MODIFIED MENGELE-MEAL
aviation technology, CHEM-TRAILS, 911
and don't forget arms: the US still leads the world in arms production.
YEAH, DEPLETED URANIUM, the gift that keeps on giving.

A good hard look at the list supplied by imenja,
with or without the added commentary,
clearly demonstrates the reasons why there is, and has ALWAYS BEEN
a trade deficit between the West
and everyone else on the planet.

Since nobody wants ANYTHING from the West,
the West has specialized in supplying that which NO-ONE wants.
I will break that down for you.
Do you want me to put this bullet into your head?
No?
Then hand over your wallet and I will keep the bullet in the gun.

Do you want us to drop a nuclear bomb on your cities,
like we did in Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
No?
Then send me those crops I want and quit asking me to pay for them.
I will send you "aid" if and when I feel like it.

Those nations that freely accept the crap that is shipped to them by the West,
can count themselves lucky if they live to regret it.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A610-2004Feb23?language=printer
http://www.ag.uiuc.edu/~stratsoy/96soystats/pg3.html
http://www.ag.uiuc.edu/~stratsoy/96soystats/pg27.html

[serryjw]

67. The perfect storm #2

Since nobody saw their way to read my other post let me address your question here.
1) EVERYTHING in America is made with the use of fossil fuel. The car you drive, the gas you put into it and getting food to the supermarkets. Peak Oil which will be here in the next few years will drive our gas prices over the top. What will you do when a gallon of gas is over $5/gallon?
2) Boomers are all retiring in the very near future with a need for SS, Medicare and few have any money saved for retirement. Our current deficit is over the top. What will happen then?
3) OUR debt is over the top. China is holding our debt and they will soon decide that holding EU dollars makes for sense
4) Bushit & co are going to continue to take all money available to make more war. This is not going to help the economy and fewer dollars will be available to cover any 'safety nets' for Americans( look at next Bushit budget and cut backs)
5)GM is A HUGE company and the ripple effect on other business is horrendous. The psychological effect of their bankruptcy will be devastating and HUGE unemployment numbers are to be expected
6) The Real estate Bust......Way to many people bought houses and re-financed to variables and won't be able to afford them when interest rates go up. Deflation will set in and banks will SELL the foreclosed houses for much less.
Just a few of the things you can look forward to..happy dreams

[MsTryska]

65. I'm not sure if you meant it to be liek that....

but your post looks like it should be put to music.

[XemaSab]

63. I think beanie babies

Are a really unstable base for a market.

I'd much prefer my wages in the form of assorted yu-gi-oh cards and new kids on the block memorabilia.

[paula777]

62. Whew, I thought I was the only one

[bpilgrim]

68. Peak Oil i believe is the BIG worry

but there is no denying that our DOLLAR has been PLUMMETING for 4 straight years, the price of oil has been heading in the opposite direction at an even quicker pace in the same time-frame.

and don't forget who's driv'n da BUS :scared:

peace

[Dhalgren]

9. Good gods!

I'm no financial wizard, but this sounds like the end of the world as we know it! What a perfect storm of happenstance! Just when we reach our most vulnerable point, we are the most hated world-wide. I see no help from any quarter. There will be hell to pay for all of this, and the American citizen will be left holding the tab...

[The Doctor.]

12. This is quite a bit more serious than people would understand.

Right now the price of gas is considered a mere 'inconvenience'.

Very few understand where this is heading.

[faithnotgreed]

25. humans dont hear the distant thunder - esp those who

dont want to hear the impending and awful truth because its too frightening (my mother comes to mind)
or those who are so involved in their (fill in the blank) life

people can be too comfortable or in too much pain or too glib or are so far down the socioeconomic chain they stopped listening to the typical/political bs a long time ago etc
there are so many shades of pain our world experiences and - speaking very generally - it has basically added up to not being able to hear whats coming until it really becomes too late

ignorance is only bliss for so long

[Rex]

17. When you reduce lower/middle class wages and raise taxes

expect a train wreck. Texas is about to have the highest sales tax in the country and we rank last in funding education. We slash medical benefits and funding for education, good bye happy people. No money means no one can buy those overpriced POS car and trucks.

[girl gone mad]

29. I'll play devil's advocate.

While I agree that our economy is teetering on the edge of chaos, I don't agree that the price of GM stock is any kind of leading indicator.

GM is a poorly managed company, and has been for quite some time. I'd say they are easily the weakest of all of the automakers. Also, volatility in blue chips is not all that uncommon. You need look no furhter than GM's 5 year stock chart for proof of that, or Microsoft's 5 year chart.

In fact, I'd argue that volitility in the blue chips is a GOOD thing. That's what allows the small investor to earn 12% returns. A lack of volatility, as we would have if SS funds were being steadily poured into the markets (privatization), would only benefit large investors.

As far as the future of the stock market goes, I'm much more concerned with persistent corporate fraud. Blue chip stocks are still heavily overvalued because so many fortune 1000 companies have been cooking the books in various ways for so long. Prices still haven't caught up (or should I say down?) to reality. Soaring energy prices will hurt Small business and consumers the most. Big business will find ways to deal with it, or lie about it on the balance sheet.

[Syrinx]

32. And an important thing to note is...

The article was written by a guy who is making his money by hawking precious metals.

[Name removed]

39. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[imenja]

52. interesting. How informed you are about writings on Brazilian slavery

crime, punishment and the relationship between state and society. I was unaware that Paul Krugman and the others wrote on such matters.
Make sure that you inform the Brazilianists at Yale, Texas, Maryland, and other major universities about your new required reading list.

Did you ever come up with an example for the historical parallel to the current economic crisis you said was so apparent?

Generally if one wants to counter an argument of another poster, it's useful to read and try to understand what they say. Give it a whirl. It might prove a new and useful approach for you.

[anarchy1999]

54. Let us read up on Argentina, Shall we?

n/t

[imenja]

59. please, I'd love to here your explanation of the parallels

between the Argentine economic collapse and our current problems. Please enlighten us.

And here I thought you were selflessly concerned with the state of the research for my book. I must have misunderstood your continual admonitions about the inadequate level of my doctoral research.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

42. GM cutting 12,000 jobs in Germany

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/dd2d55ca-4b18-11d9-a0ca-00000e2511c8.html

"...The mood at Opel's Rüssel-heim factory near Frankfurt was as chilly yesterday as the weather. Workers at General Motors' largest European plant will bear the brunt of some 12,000 job cuts with few chances of a new job elsewhere. ..."

And here at home in the U.S., they are reportedly planning to cut up to 28% of their white collar work force (which is non-union) in some departments.
http://money.cnn.com/2005/03/21/news/fortune500/gm_cuts/index.htm?section=money_latest

In addition, they're asking their union member workers to pay a larger portion of their health care benefits and GM is also ending all merit pay raises for the entire company.
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050321/ap_on_bi_ge/automakers_health_care_2

[Media_Lies_Daily]

44. I had a former manager tell me twenty years ago that if the auto....

...industry starts to slide downward, the next major financial crisis is on the way.

Think of how many other foreign and domestic industries, small companies, and mom-n-pop shops that are dependent on the American auto industry, and you will begin to get a glimpse of what this all means.

As goes the auto industry, so goes the economy.

[Name removed]

46. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[sub.theory]

50. anarchy1999, you are being abusive

You are completely over the line in your responses to DU member imenja. Imenja did nothing more than to ask an honest question, and the level of your vitriol and personal attacks are simply not acceptable. It really does rise to the level of abusive.

You need to either respond to imenja's posts in an objective and civil manner or take a break from DU until you can calm down.

I'm certain that I can't be the only one that was rather disgusted with your postings. The way you are acting is only turning people off from whatever ideas you might be otherwise able to share.

[bpilgrim]

69. who has the MOST ads on prime-time, teeVee? the AUTO INDUSTRY

GM's troubles certainly ain't a good sign especially on the heels of all the recent market bad news... we STILL haven't recovered from ENRONOMICS yet.

peace

[lies and propaganda]

51. Its coming

pay off your credit cards and start saving.

[Cascadian]

53. Euros anybody?

It's time to invest in Euros. I cannot confirm this but if anybody can please, I also understand that most of the Middle Eastern currencies are moving back to the gold standard because they know the Dollar is going to become worthless in a short period of time.



John

[Wilms]

57. .

[MsTryska]

64. yeah - i had heard on the news that they were

expecting an 80% drop in profits for this quarter or some such madness.


i've gotten to the point, where i'm ready for it to all go to hell in a handbasket - and each day closer to armageddon, the more relief i feel.


soemtimes i guess you have to burn the damn thing down, in order to build soemthing better.

[The Kicker]

71. What do those scouts say?

Oh yeah,be prepared.It never hurts.:beer: