The Trouble with Taiwan

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=3707

Ted Galen Carpenter is vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute. He is the author or editor of 16 books on international relations, and author of The Coming War with China over Taiwan: Inevitable or Avoidable? (forthcoming, Palgrave). Justin Logan is a research assistant at the Cato Institute.


Two factors have historically deterred the People's Republic of China from attempting to retake Taiwan by force: technologically superior Taiwanese weaponry and concern that the United States might intervene with its own military forces. Until recently, Taiwan took seriously its responsibility to purchase arms to defend itself. Unfortunately, the Taiwanese people seem increasingly unconcerned about providing for their own defense, and instead want to rely on an implied U.S. security commitment. If the United States does not force Taiwan to get serious about its own security, the result could be an emboldened China and the risk of war in the Taiwan Strait. snip

Taiwan's lack of seriousness is unacceptable because it has the effect of pushing the United States to the forefront of the cross-Strait conflict. China's purchases of advanced KILO class submarines and Sukhoi fighter planes from Russia are eroding Taiwan's qualitative advantage. Taiwan's anti-submarine warfare capabilities are insufficient and dwindling, and its air supremacy is waning in the face of China's acquisitions. All of these trends are getting worse, and creating a sense in China that it may soon be able to take Taiwan by force or intimidate the Taiwanese into surrender.

While it is unfortunate that the democracy on Taiwan faces a confrontation with communist China, Americans should certainly not take Taiwan's security more seriously than do its own citizens. If they decide that social spending is more important than deterring a possible takeover attempt by the PRC, that is their decision. They should not be allowed to free ride on the expectation that the United States will save them in the event of a crisis.

The United States should continue, under the obligation of the TRA, to sell Taiwan defensive arms with which it can deter a Chinese attack. However, at the same time, Washington should indicate to Taiwan that it does not intend to involve itself in a war in the Taiwan Strait. As things stand now, the Taiwanese increasingly expect that the United States will defend them, and the Chinese increasingly suspect that it will not. That is the worst of both worlds, and portends a perilous situation for all parties involved.

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[bryant69]

1. Tricky source - The Cato Institute

Good on the run up to the war with Iraq (which they opposed) but not so good on most other issues.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[Silverhair]

2. Good post.

In other threads I have listed the Taiwanese advantage, but as this poster states, it can change and may be changing for the worse. Indeed we do need to let the Taiwanese, (And for that matter the Koreans too) know that they will have to take care of their own defense.

[NNN0LHI]

3. Stop agreeing with me. It scares me n/t

[Silverhair]

5. Didn't notice it was you I was agreeing with.

Most of the time I don't notice who is posting. But it is still a good post. The situation is indeed in flux and in a few years could be very different. But by then, China may be making so much money that they won't want to mess with war over Taiwan when they can just buy it for less than the cost of a war. (Last sentence is only partly in jest.)

[wuushew]

4. You know there are other foreign policy sites than CATO

I try to minimize the traffic I give them even if I may agree with much in this article.

[bpilgrim]

6. "defense budget should be cut in half in order to fund social welfare proj

"Taiwan's existing defense budget should be cut in half in order to fund social welfare projects."

sounds like their mad that they ain't buying enough of our largest export.

i'd love to see what happened if Hawaii or Alaska attempted to succeed :evilgrin:

(on edit: just noticed there is a poll on this very question, thanks to evil DUer NNN0LHI vote here...

war is good for business, either way the bush crime family figures they win.

peace

[tecumseh]

8. hypocritical or else

lacking in historical knowledge. in the 1980s when taiwan had one of the largest cash reserves in the world, they tried to arm and were quashed by pressure from the US to not rock the boat. in fact, every time taiwan attempts to improve its arsenals, china condemns it as provocation. the US has consistently urged taiwan refrain from anything provocative.

this is the latest blame-the-victim strategy in washington. taiwan has created a genuine democracy out of a shabby US-nurtured military dictatorship. so long as taiwan was under martial law, it had US protection. now that it is democratic and seeking a new path internationally, it gets nothing but US rejection. the bush government china policy is run by china. taiwan will be blamed for not arming if it does not arm, and blamed for arming if it arms. that's the game.

it is absurd to suggest that any amount of arms purchases on the part of taiwan will protect it from a chinese invasion. china is approaching the clear status of second military power in the world after the united states. it is a nuclear power. it's navy will soon dominate the south china sea, and after that will challenge the US for domination of the western pacific. how is taiwan supposed to create a balance of military power sufficient to stave off any invasion? taiwan's only hope of preventing invasion is to rely on political and economic relationships with allies. unfortunately those allies don't include Bush-gummint.

the irony of it all is that there is probably still a legal technicality that leaves taiwan as a US territory. it was surrendered to the US by japan at the end of WW II and its legal status thereafter was never clarified because any attempt would have been regarded as provocative by china. the present population of taiwan took a bit of US territorial flotsam and created a very successful country. nobody seems willing to forgive them for that.

[bobthedrummer]

7. A few weeks ago China was in the market to buy Unocal.

They have economic weapons too. This is another case of taking advantage of the failed Bush Doctrine imo.

Doubtless there are the nuclear proponents among the neo-cons being restrained again.

Sheesh, what a mess.
:nuke: