http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=46Foreign Treasuries Purchases Update 3/11/05
Bud Conrad
<The trade deficit grew to the second highest ever at $58.3B for the month of January. That’s an annual deficit of $700B. The connection above implies an equivalent demand for foreigners to loan us that amount. Imports from China increased 1.9% in January from December, to $17.9 billion. Chinese imports rose 27% year-over-year. There will be some limit as to how much foreigners will continue to loan us, and it seems we are close. A big spike in oil could make this worse, as we have no choice but to pay.
It was announced yesterday that the U.S. budget deficit widened to the biggest monthly gap ever on surges in military and Medicare spending in February. The $113.9 billion monthly shortfall is more than the deficit of $96.7 billion in February 2004. As this is cycled through all the parties of the carousel, the connections continue.
Yesterday there was a new 10-year Treasury auction from the US government to extend its borrowing noted above. It did not surprise the market. The bid to cover was adequate. But the notes carried a yield of 4.504%, which is sharply above the 4.049% on the notes sold a month ago. This is the direction that my analysis has been forecasting. I have focused on foreign purchasing. The indirect bidders in this auction provide some idea of how active foreign central banks may be in buying US debt. While not exactly comparable to the custody holdings, they are a useful indicator. Indirect bidders, which include foreign central banks, bought only 11.7% of the notes, less than their 28.5% share a month ago.
This week, the increase in custody holdings at the Federal Reserve (purchases of Treasuries and Agencies by foreign central banks), was small, only $1.6B....<snip>