I am really getting scared about peak oil...

[slor]

if I were alone, I would not worry as much, but I have a wife (thank god, no children). She does not want me to get a gun, and thinks that my talk of stocking up on canned goods is alarmist. I really am worried about the near future, anybody actively preparing? Or do we still have a few years before TSHTF?

[Swamp Rat]

1. Learn to like cannibalism

I will start with republicans and Bush supporters. :evilgrin:

[whistle]

5. Yuke, low protein, low fiber, high carbohydrate diet!

[KansDem]

15. Yeah! I hear they taste like chicken(hawks)!

[whistle]

2. Don't be scared, Bush has a plan where we all fart into holding

...tanks and will power our SUVs and other energy needs from the excess methane gas that will be available. These republicans don't have a clue.

[BigBearJohn]

3. Preparation is always prudent

I am all for being proactive

[Speck Tater]

4. How much ammo do you have left over from...

... preparing for the Y2K meltdown? Just use that.

I can't even begin to tell you how many end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it scenarios I've personally experienced in my 60 years. For my first 25 years or so I took them quite seriously until I began to notice that I was just making a fool of myself. Over and over.

(ed:sp)

[Lex]

8. I looked at a house recently that had a bomb shelter in the back yard.

The house was built in the 1960's.

[slor]

11. I did not prepare for Y2K...

I believed it was overhyped, and did not even bother filling the water pitcher (remember how water was going to be shut-off). But I do not think I am alone, when I say, this will be far different.

[FreedomAngel82]

34. Same here

I remember that. Pure silliness. I remember my church had a new year's party and I remember when the countdown was happening you could tell everybody was holding their breaths and then nothing happened. :eyes:

[sendero]

50. I never bought into the Y2K...

... nonsense. But I buy into this.

Never boought the "coming economic crash" books of the late 70's and all through the 80's. But I buy this.

Fact is, peak oil or not, our economy is hanging by a thread and it has been since 2001. When lowering the Fed funds rate to the 1% level doesn't even jumpstart the economy, you got problems.

Add in outsourcing, a tapped out consumer, oils shocks, foreign debt, and a few other factors I'm passing over and I guarantee you America is not an economically healthy country.

Anyoone who isn't preparing for this possiblity (not a certainty but at least a 50/50 chance) has their head in the sand IMHO.

[jeffrey_X]

63. I still have tons of supplies left over...

from the war on drugs. :smoke:

[quinnox]

6. It's the latest scare

I think it is another DU overhyped Doom and gloom thing, but I'm sure I'll be called unenlightened or an ostrich. Yawn.

There should be a poll, which current hot disaster topic are you most scared about, The avian bird flu or peak oil

[LaPera]

35. Exactly, if this bullshit were true, why then is there no mention...

of conserving consumption, higher MPG in vehicles, alternative energy, mass transit legislation, car pooling, encouraging physical alternatives, walking & bicycling.

No, it's bullshit, consummation means huge profits for BushCo, pollution, global warming, encouraging tax write offs for buying Hummers, anything so you will consume more oil for their profit...while they control the price and the flow, though lies, scare tactics and imperialism!

How can anyone believe this shit? Inevitably of course, if we allow this kind of consumption, no doubt we will indeed someday have a crisis, but until then, if they can control the flow of wind, sun and water for profit and they start putting their money and investments into those technologies...Convince people theres a shortage and your able to charge whatever you like. Does this sound like BushCo?

These are oil kings and the Bush twins will inherit this massive oil empire for many years to come.

[cthrumatrix]

59. becuase it takes time....peaking does not mean "no oil" it means less

over time...5, 10 years might be a much larger impact...now we are seeing more demand than supply (production)

[benburch]

7. And you should be.

I've know about it since 1972, but nobody was listening back then. I had read the Club of Rome's groundbreaking study "Limits to Growth".

http://dieoff.org/page25.htm

[concord]

60. Well, pollution will go down - that's something (eom)

[Turbineguy]

9. I would not be so scared

In advance, oil and gas prices will rise fairly gradually. Europeans have been living with $4-5 gallon gas for a long time. It seems to work OK there. If you'd thought in 1972 that gas prices would be over $2 per gallon you would have thought there would be riots and blood in the streets.

[Lex]

10. If the price of gas goes up to $6.00 per gallon, that ought to slow usage

down a bit here in the US.

[recoveringrepublican]

25. Correct me if I'm wrong

but isn't part of the reason why Europeans pay so much for gas is because of the services that are paid for with the taxes? If the government can assure me that EVERYONE would have great health care I would gladly pay $6.00 gallon.

[rockymountaindem]

31. Yes.

Most of the high cost of fuel in Europe comes from taxes as a way to decrease traffic and get more people to use public transportation.

[Tux]

12. Peak oil

Is bound to happen at some point in time. It may cause unstablity in the Middle East but here, we would have switched to hybrid or hydrogen for fuel. Plastics would have to be recycled more often but hey, it'd be cheaper. Overall, it would hurt several economies but as long as our technology adapts to the peak oil, we'll be fine.

It's the fundies and Republicians we have to be concerned about.

[rman]

44. how much time do we have to switch to hydrogen?

And where are we going to find it? You can't just drill a hole in the ground and have hydrogen spew out.
It'll take energy to make hydrogen, and with oil becoming scarce where are we going to get that energy? We're going to need alternative energy sources on a massive scale, sooner rather then later. We should have started to make the transition decades ago, we should be making the transition now - but we aren't.

[MARALE]

13. Don't worry too much

I think there will be a lot of changes, you just need to learn how to adapt. We are learning how to farm and use resources that we have. We will live through changes and will come out all the better for it. Humans are smart and when oil begins to run out, we will built something else. I hope it is along the lines of soybean oil, or some other renewable source.

[Radical Activist]

14. So is George Bush

That's why we invaded Iraq. It won't get scary for years. It will just get more expensive. Buy a low mileage car, elect pro-environmental Democrats and don't worry about it too much.

[tanyev]

16. It never hurts to have a supply

of canned foods. That's good advice for any emergency. And as the prices of goods start going up and our stock portfolios start coming down, it may be the only investment that will pay off.

[JohnyCanuck]

17. Canuckistanians, End of Suburbia on Vision TV, Wed @ 10:00pm EST

That's 10pm Eastern Time.

The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream makes its television premiere on Wednesday, March 9 at 10 p.m. ET as part of VisionTV's weekly series of social issues documentaries.

The hour-long film explains how suburbia, with its promise of “space, affordability, convenience, family life and upward mobility” has come to embody the aspirations of North American society. And it warns of a looming oil crisis that threatens to bring the whole arrangement crashing down, turning today's suburbs into tomorrow's slums.

Part of the new wave of progressive documentaries that includes Fahrenheit 9/11 and The Corporation , The End of Suburbia has been featured at film festivals and community screenings all over North America, and has been selling briskly on video and DVD. Thomas Wheeler of the Alternative Press Review has called it “one of the most important must-see documentaries of the year.”

The first North American suburbs sprang up in the 1870s, but the concept really took off with the housing boom that followed World War Two. Because population densities in these bedroom communities tend to be low, it's not economical to provide for extensive mass transit. That means suburbanites must depend on the automobile to get most places – to work, to school, to shopping or to recreation.

More at:
http://www.visiontv.ca/Programs/documentaries_endsuburbia.html


If you don't get Canadian Cable TV, here's a link for a cut down version of End of Suburbia for viewing over the web (24 min).

Apple Quick Time stream:
http://911busters.com/video/IQ1_20_END_OF_SUBURBIA_VIDEO_24.2_.mov

Windows Media Player:
http://911busters.com/video/IQ1_20_END_OF_SUBURBIA_VIDEO_24.2_.wmv

[Carolab]

29. So does that mean the rebirth of urban areas?

Hope so, since I live in one.

[mikehiggins]

18. Well, here's some good news on the energy front

Nanotech Rules!

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/01/0114_050114_solarplastic.html

[Al-CIAda]

19. Beans and rice.

Can goods as well. Lets just put it this way, starting in 2008, it will be a race against expiration dates.

So what if you are alarmist? You can't go wrong buying food can you?

[Xithras]

20. I really don't think it will be so bad in the US

All of the peak oil projections that I've seen look at its effects on a global scale, and while I have no doubt that PO is real, I think it's effects on the US are overestimated.

First off, the US is a net food exporter. Even assuming a complete cessation of petrochemically aided farming practices, there is still enough farmland in the US to provide sufficient food to all of its citizens. Even better, that farmland is geographically distributed around the country so even transportation-limited regions shouldn't see food shortages.

The areas that are really going to be screwed, and that are really going to see drastic population crashes, are regions like Central America, Africa, the Middle East, the Pacific islands, and other net-food importers that cannot sustain their populations on locally grown food alone. I wouldn't want to be in Hawaii or Alaska when the pumps run dry, but those of us in the lower 48 should be relatively well off.

The entire country will, of course, see dramatic change as the car culture comes to an end and the suburbs are either abandoned or connected via rail to their urban hubs, but the US still has the natural resources available to power an incredible amount of industry and support a huge number of people.

In fact, I read a report last week that predicted, in the long term, that peak oil would eventually be seen as beneficial to the US. It will end outsourcing (rising shipping costs will make domestic production more financially attractive), end US overdependence on the automobile, put a cap on urban sprawl, and stop the overuse of environmentally destructive fertilizers and agricultural chemicals.

[dpibel]

37. Not anymore

As of this year, the US will either break even or be a net food importer. Brazil is now producing more soybeans and is even or ahead on beef.

Your scenario also fails to incorporate the huge petrochemical inputs for farming (in addition to the oil used for transport).

[earth mom]

21. I don't think you're wrong...

there have been plenty of posts around DU on other threads by people who feel the same way. Look at history. Look at the Great Depression. Look at Europe before and after WWII. Those events weren't all that long ago. Things here in the U.S. have gotten steadily worse-frighteningly so. No one knows how bad it could get, but I'd say it's better to be prepared. I know that I'm starting to.

[eallen]

22. So I take it you're investing every cent in energy issues?

Let me press two points, which are not entirely related. First, if you believe oil production will peak in the next few years, the obvious thing to do now is invest in energy issues that will benefit from the rising price. Why buy guns and dried beans now, when you can do so in a couple of years, from the vast profits of your stellar portfolio? :)

Second, and as a caution before you run out and put every cent into energy issues, predicting the future is damn hard. I've been investing in energy for the last couple of years, but oil is now at $54/bbl, and it could well plummet to $25 in the next year. And stay there for four years. At which point you and I sell our investments, cry over our losses, and then watch the price climb back up to $100/bbl.

Along these lines, I think it is wrong to make the leap from predictions of peak oil to prophesying armageddon. There are lots of things that will happen along the way, and changes we'll see in the material basis of the economy. I have to laugh when I see the Olduvia gorge folks dismiss coal, because it's too dirty, and nuclear, because Americans don't like it (check out France!), and conservation, because no one is doing it, and solar, because it is too expensive, etc., thus convincing themselves that no one will do anything until we all starve to death.

[John BigBootay]

23. Don't be.

The hysteria is irrational and short sighted. Just as Paul Ehrlich predicted (wrongly) that we'd all be dead by now because of scarcity of resources, the doom sayers of peak oil don't account for several things that will enable a normal transition from oil to other fuels.

Technology improves all the time. We adapt to new conditions at a fast rate. We find and are able to exploit new oil fields that were not economically feasible before. The price rises gradually and oil begins to fall from favor as new resources such as biomass, wind, solar, nuclear and as yet undiscovered or unimplemented forms become more attractive.

YOU WILL NOT DIE from peak oil. You might not even be inconvenienced by it.

Take a deep breath and enjoy the long and wonderful life ahead of you.

[CindyDale]

24. Might not be "inconvenienced"? Is this war just a nightmare I'm having?

Am I going to wake up and Jimmy Carter is still president? Please say yes.

[Solon]

27. 1500 Americans have already died because of it...

Another 100,000 Iraqis the same. If we had a SANE government, I wouldn't worry as much, but with the one we have now, I would be lucky to get out of this transitional period alive.

[Strelnikov_]

30. Unfortunately This DOE Study Does Not Agree

Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management.

http://www.hilltoplancers.org/stories/hirsch0502.pdf

. . .

To explore how these technologies might contribute, three alternative mitigation scenarios were analyzed: One where action is initiated when peaking occurs, a second where action is assumed to start 10 years before peaking, and a third where action is assumed to start 20 years before peaking.

Analysis of the simultaneous implementation of all of the options showed that an impact of roughly 25 million barrels per day might be possible 15 years after initiation.

Because conventional oil production decline will start at the time of peaking, crash program mitigation inherently cannot avert massive shortages unless it is initiated well in advance of peaking.

Specifically,
* Waiting until world conventional oil production peaks before initiating crash program mitigation leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for two decades or longer.
* Initiating a crash program 10 years before world oil peaking would help considerably but would still result in a worldwide liquid fuels shortfall, starting roughly a decade after the time that oil would have otherwise peaked.
* Initiating crash program mitigation 20 years before peaking offers the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period.

Without timely mitigation, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction (shortages), accompanied by huge oil price increases, both of which would create a long period of significant economic hardship worldwide.

[John BigBootay]

32. Predictions are not proof of anything.

As mentioned before, Ehrlich and company (and far too numerous others to entertain here) have made predictions of the end of the world that have never come to pass.

The one thing these studies seems to forget is that the world is not a static arena. Things change rapidly, chaos is present, humans adapt and learn more quickly than we usually acknowledge, there are companies in place with deep pockets already thinking about these issues, and many other factors play into the scenario.

[Strelnikov_]

49. Yawn. Whatever.

And who said anything about the 'end of the world'.

And maybe if you had read the report you would have recognized that it does not view the world as 'static' either.

Change takes time, and due to the investment that has been made in the petroleum based economy, unless we get ahead of the curve, there will be pain.

The effects of the oil shocks of the 70's are well documented.

[John BigBootay]

57. Excuse me, but the original poster WAS concerned--

about essentially an "end-of-the-world" scenario. And THAT is what I was responding to.

I read the highlights you presented.

And my response is that PREDICTIONS ARE NOT PROOF OF ANYTHING.

I lived through the "oil shocks" of the 70's-- they are documented well in my psyche. And honestly, waiting in line for gas or buying gas on odd versus even days and paying over a dollar a gallon at the time was not even close to a doomsday scenario.

Moreover, there is no direct correlation between the completely artificial scarcity of the 70's created by OPEC and today's situation.

OPEC blindsided us-- but we can see this REAL scarcity coming a million miles away. My "prediction" is that we will make the necessary adjustments to minimize the pain you are expecting.

That is why I am not particularly worried about this "crisis."

[karlrschneider]

26. It isn't something that will happen in a day, week or year. Peak oil

whether it has already happened or will do so 'shortly' just means production will fall short of demand. We aren't going to suddenly 'run out' of oil...it will just become more scarce and more expensive and less available. (I have been in the "awl bidness" for 45 years)

[rman]

43. "will just become more scarce" - it's not a minor issue;

all oil based products (including food) becoming ever more expensive is exactly what the problem is. It is also exactly what is described by "peak oil"- no-one is saying we're going to "run out" of oil any time soon.

[chlamor]

28. Forget the gun learn to save seeds

grow lots of fresh food with the help of others. Learn to can your great harvest. Start a bike CoOp. Peak oil is here (though peak oil is a misnomer, catch- all phrase). All the things that are required to live a low energy life are things we should be doing anyway 'cept we got WAYYY off track and spoiled which has lead to despoiling. You are an alarmist. Good for you the house is on fire.

Seed to Seed by SuzanneAnsworth

Permaculture 1&2-Mollison and Holmgren

[LaPera]

33. Peak Oil is bullshit...Their goal is to control the flow of oil for profit

Which they are succeeding at.

How else can they open the Alaskan Wildlife Preserve to the oil company's for drilling?

By scaring people, with this thinking, they can continue to make huge profits by controlling the oil flow (and why Iran is next, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, etc.) and to frighten people into drilling in Alaska for even more profits.

It's about controlling the flow of oil and they will use any excuse (Iraq pipelines being blown up, etc.) I don't believe it for a moment. If Bush and the corporate media are telling us that "peak oil" is a problem, then it's bullshit.

I know it's about controlling the flow of oil, keeping prices high, while the oil company's record, record profits quarter after quarter.

Another BushCo fear tactic, for their monetary gain...If peak oil were real, than why aren't they remotely even suggesting conserving, higher MPG in autos, alternative energy, etc.

Its all about...use more and more oil for more and more profits and they keep using peak oil for their excuse for imperialism and stealing other country's resources.

It's all about controlling the flow of oil.

[Spider Jerusalem]

39. Sorry, you're wrong...

USGS surveys indicate that the reservoir under ANWR contains enough oil to supply US needs, independent of other sources, for only ELEVEN MONTHS. Not very much oil there, nor very much long-term profit.

It's also pretty ridiculous to label the idea a "BushCo fear tactic" when this is anissue which has yet to be acknowledged by the United States government; you're apparently not aware, but Bush has said nothing about this, and the corporate media have given the story almost no play (and when they have, the tone has been dismissive).

Oil is a limited natural resource; the theory of production peak is not only sound but has been verified by production peaks in individual areas (the continental US, the North Sea and the former Soviet Union) which were predicted by mathematical modelling BEFORE they occurred.

You obviously need to educate yourself on the subject.

[Zinfandel]

40. "Sorry, you're wrong..."

http://www.the7thfire.com/Politics%20and%20History/peak_oil/is_peak_oil_a_myth.htm

As it documents, oil is not a "fossil" fuel and hence a non-renewable resource, but a _mineral_ fuel which is continuously created within the mantle of the earth. The creation of higher alkanes from biogenic molecules in the temperature and pressure regime of the earth's near-surface crust is glaringly in violation of the second law of thermodynamics. The notion that oil is derived from biological decomposition was first proposed in 1757, and has never had any science whatsoever to back it up.

Whereas laboratory experiments have shown that a cocktail of alkanes (methane, hexane, octane and so on) such as are found in natural oil is produced when a mixture of calcium carbonate, water and iron oxide is heated to 1,500° C and crushed with the weight of 50,000 atmospheres, which reproduces the conditions in the earth's upper mantle, 100 km below the surface. Besides actual experiment, the creation of natural oil via mantle chemico-physical processes is backed up by analytical arguments of quantum statistical mechanics and thermodynamic stability theory. And also there is the empirical observation of depleated oil-wells filling back up.

For all of this, as well as a thorough discussion on the politics behind the "Peak Oil" scam, see the below article by David McGowan:

"Cop v CIA (Center for an Informed America)--The Most Important Center for an Informed America Story in Two Years...," David McGowan, Center for an Informed America NEWSLETTER #52 March 13, 2004

http://www.davesweb.cnchost.com/nwsltr52.html

########################################

For more on the "Peak Oil" scam as well as the "oil crisis" of the 1970s, see the below book:

_The Energy Non-Crisis_ by Lindsey Williams

http://www.reformation.org/energy-non-crisis.html

Below are some more links on this matter:

"Energy Crisis or People Control?" by Marie Gunther, Infowars.com Exclusive:

http://www.infowars.com/gunther.html

"NEWSLETTER #49, January 30, 2004" by Dave McGowan:

http://www.davesweb.cnchost.com/nwsltr49.html

"#531 - Energy Non-crisis Oil Strike of 1975 was covered up and not revealed until 1989" RealAudio stream interview of Lindsey Williams:

http://www.fatima.org/worldorder.htm


And definitely see the below article:

"Sustainable oil?" by Chris Bennett, May 25, 2004:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=38645

[Spider Jerusalem]

41. That fails to explain...

the markers indicating biological origin found in chemical analysis of ALL petroleum, AND the fact that successful oil exploration is based on the geologic assumptions of the biogenic thesis and has been very successful (not to mention that oil exploration attempts made working with the abiogenic hypothesis have been utter failures).

Sorry, but the aboigenic oil hypothesis is junk science. I've already read the arguments, pro and con, and the weight of evidence is against it.

[Zinfandel]

42. Indeed!

"The most dangerous man, to any government, is the man who is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost invariably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane and intolerable, and so, if he is romantic, he tries to change it. And if he is not romantic personally, he is apt to spread discontent among those who are."

What? "aboigenetic oil hypothesis is junk science" like junk bonds...

Keep the faith!

[depakid]

51. Dude, you are in SERIOUS denial

"oil is not a "fossil" fuel and hence a non-renewable resource, but a _mineral_ fuel which is continuously created within the mantle of the earth."

LOL!

You've got to be kidding me....

Sure, oil is being created... just as aquifers are being recharged- but not at anywhere near the rate we are depleting them. Aquifers take long enough (as the Wheat belt is going to find out as the Ogalla aquifer starts to run dry)- but oil doesn't take tens of decades or centuries- we're talking tens and hundreds of millenia!

People need to get it through their heads that by the 22d Century, they're going to have to live on an energy budget powered by the sun, and what gravitational forces we can tap from the tides and geothermal.

To think anything else is to buy into a cornucopian fallacy or place one's hope on some miraculous technological fix!

[eallen]

52. It doesn't matter how oil originates.

For the purposes of projecting future production and supply, it doesn't much matter how oil came to be. Geologists search for oil by looking at promising geological structures that trap it, i.e., sand layers beneath rock boundaries. How it got there -- whether by a purely geological process, or a geological process involving organic material -- doesn't make much difference to where it might be trapped. None of the proposed origins will renew it quickly enough to affect human use.

[hatrack]

53. Ah! So that explains continuously rising oil production in PA, TX, AK, OK

. . . . and all the other oil states!

No wonder domestic production continues to swell!

No wonder the United States did not become a net oil importer in 1971!

No wonder we didn't go from importing 28% of our oil in 1973 to importing 63% of our oil in 2004!

It's because the miraculous abiotic oil just kept on filling those fields and holding oil and gasoline prices at 1954 levels!

:eyes:

[rman]

45. so there must be an infinite amount of oil?

if there simply is no such thing as "peak oil".

[LaPera]

47. Of course. When?

Is the the question, that is the concern and the subject of massive manipulation for profit...

[rman]

55. So you think peak oil is real, yet you say "Peak Oil is bullshit"

Indeed the big question is when it will be, meaning it is not bullshit.

When do you think it will be, and what is the basis for your estimate?

[Solon]

67. Have a question...

Today, I just saw it on the news, most oil companies have lost an average of about 50 to 60 points per share. Where is the advantage to them for peak oil again?

[bpilgrim]

75. watch this video, it uses basic math to prove PEAK OIL --------> MP4

http://news.globalfreepress.com/movs/Al_Bartlett-PeakOil.mp4

Dr. Hubbert, who used used simple math to describe PEAK oil production was dissmissed as a kook, too, when he acurately predicted US peak oil production 20 years before hand.

you had better pay attention to what the experts are saying it is more reliable than your gut.

psst... pass the word ;->

peace

[Amfortas]

36. Don't worry about peak oil......

bird flu is what's going to get us!

[depakid]

38. You need to go back and read the materials

Petroleum depletion is inevitable, but paranoia isn't warranted- and only makes people who discuss the issues look like Jeremiads.

If you're sincere about doing some planning (depending on how old you are- or how long you think you'l live, that may not even be necessary) then look into moving to a sustainable community in the next decade or so- in a region that can be reasonably self sufficient in terms of water and agriculture- and where you either have a community close by or there's public transportation.

[rman]

46. who's being paranoid?

You seem to agree that it would be prudent to prepare for oil depletion. In other words, there's reason to worry or "be scared" - why do you call that paranoid?

[depakid]

48. Stocking canned good and buying guns....

is paranoia...

This is a long-term inter-generational problem. The world isn't just going to come crashing to a halt- anarchy isn't just going to bust loose one day (over peak oil, at least).

And, no- there isn't any reason to be scared- or even to worry. What's the use in that? Nothing can be done about the situation from most individuals' perspectives other than to do long range planning- especially if one has or wants to have kids.

[rman]

56. "long-term problem" - so when will it be? and what is the basis

for your opinion?

I'd agree with you that stocking canned food and buying guns may not be the best solution; you can only stock so much cans, and you'll run out of bullets in a world where you won't be able to buy new bullets.

I think your advice regarding "moving to a sustainable community" is much more substantial then buying cans and guns.

But i think doing that "in the next decade or so" will be to late. It looks like we'll be well on the declining side of the curve by the time the next decade has arrived.


Numbers on global oil consumption and global natural reserves show there only enough for a few decades untill we have practically run out of oil all together - that is assuming both demand and production will remain at the levels they are now, which is completely unrealistic.

The whole point of peak oil is that the peak is well before we completely run out of the stuff. The problem is that demand keeps growing (especially with the booming economies of China and India), while production declines once the peak takes place.

As a rule of thumb, the peak is at the half-way point. This turnes out to be true both for individual fields and for oil rich regions.
With only a few decades of oil left, and with oil extraction having started about half a century ago, it is not unreasonable to conclude the peak is very near if not now.

I'll be keeping an eye on the oil prices, and i dare to predict that aside from the usual fluctuations in price, the price will show an upward trend from now on, never to go down again.

[bpilgrim]

76. anyone who has any doubts MUST WATCH this PEAK OIL video -------> MP4

http://news.globalfreepress.com/movs/Al_Bartlett-PeakOil.mp4

psst... pass the word ;->

peace

[William Bloode]

54. I guess i am pretty well prepared.

I spent $15,000 and quite a few hours building a damn coupled with a water wheel powered generator. Works wonders! My power bill is minute, and in fact the power company often owes me money(i'm hooked into the grid, and they buy the excess) Worse scenario i would have to give up air conditioning, or just cool one or two rooms in summer. Other than that, i'm good. Not to mention i live on 385 acres, and keep livestock and farm a bit now. Won't effect me to awful much.....bring it on ;)

[Red_Thirst]

58. Renewable Energy

This is a very interesting point.

We do need new forms of energy, and sustainable energy is essential.

Of course, all forms of energy ultimately come from the sun, or from gravitational forces.

Even oil is produced from living creatures that ultimately derive their energy from the sun.

It is essential that we invest in renewable energy sources and bio-sustainable ones.

We can, for example, synthesise plastics from carbohydrates instead of hydrocarbons. Thanks to certain interests, this does not happen enough.

As well as investing in oil substitutes for plastic production we need to research alternate energy sources.

What about bio-energy from aborted foetuses? Whilst it seems the stuff of the 'Matrix' films, our modern society that protects womens' rights will as a by-product produce a lot of them that will just be wastefully thrown away.

We need to recycle aborted foetuses and use them as a source of bio-energy. Just think, in future cars could be powered by this clean, renewable energy source instead of stolen oil.

[John BigBootay]

62. WTF????????? HA HA HA HA!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks. Needed a chuckle this a.m.

[John BigBootay]

61. Nicely done, sir! Hat's off to you! n/t

[Norquist Nemesis]

64. I was scared at first, but a little head's up

and some research made me not so any more. We are moving toward a hydrogen based economy vs. oil based.

From a lay person who knows very little about the specifics, but I keep catching 'news' about it on a more frequent basis. This is complicated and under the radar in how it's being transformed, but here goes...Remember the meetings Cheney had with 'energy' people (that we don't know who they were)? The oil field reserves map in Iraq are a part of the strategy to bridge the transition while retaining significant control over the resource, IMO. Right now, because we have not put money into developing the technology, hydrogen fuel cells and collection facilities are very expensive.

My first clue on this was seeing jobs advertised with energy companies (such as BP). These companies did major reorganization and some downsizing in the last 3-4 years. New teams were created and these are specifically tasked with mission statements that include "as we move toward a hydrogen based economy". Again, these are the same people suspected to be instrumental in meeting with Cheney and writing the Energy Plan.

Now...take a look at Bush's "Fact Sheet" on hydrogen fuel (2/2003):
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/02/20030206-2.html

We also cannot afford to be out of step with the rest of the world on this. Here's a little info with EUs progress:
http://www.cebec.sgs.com/en/pdfs/IP-04-0069%2020040120%20Hydrogen%20economy%20EN.pdf

So...I'm not feeling the impending doom that first gripped me, but having a new resource to fight wars over doesn't make me feel delightfully secure either.

[donsu]

65. what's bothering me at the moment is smirk's several mentions of

there being blackouts.

why is he saying that? more coal plants? less regulation. if he doesn't get what he wants, does that mean we get blackouts?

[concord]

66. My husband and I went through this a year ago

He'd read a book about Peak Oil (I think it was "The Party's Over") and got overwhelmed by the information. To help, I started surfing and reading and I also got overwhelmed. Sounds like that's where you are now.

After the initial shock, we took some action. He sold his beloved Cobra and bought a Civic. We switched our electric power to renewable source and all our light bulbs to fluorescent. We're learning how to grow things now. There's only so much a person can do, and the more we live with these concepts, the more comfortable we are.

Initially, the shock was The Dashboard Effect, a term I came up with when I *suddenly* discovered dead animals in the road while riding in the front seat of my parents' car. There had always been roadkill - I was just tall enough to see it.

Yes, the author of that book and those at many of the web sites ARE alarmist; but it was a needed wake-up call for both of us.

[Synnical]

68. US report acknowledges peak-oil threat

http://tinyurl.com/554p4

It has long been denied that the US government bases any policy around the idea that global oil production may be in terminal decline.

But a new US government-sponsored report, obtained by Aljazeera.net, does exactly that.

<snip>

"World oil peaking is going to happen," the report says. Only the "timing is uncertain".

The effects of any oil peak are similarly not ignored. Specifically, the impact on the economy of the United States. "The development of the US economy and lifestyle has been fundamentally shaped by the availability of abundant, low-cost oil. Oil scarcity and several-fold oil price increases due to world oil production peaking could have dramatic impacts ... the economic loss to the United States could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale," the report says.

[Jamison]

69. I'm scared too...

I think it's reality that gas could hit $5.00/gallon in the US within the next three years.

[Strelnikov_]

71. If Israel Drops US Supplied JDAM's Of Freedom On Iran This June

we will probably be at $5.00/gal. by July.

Hope the freepers enjoy it, because it is going to cost them (and us) plenty.

[Strelnikov_]

70. Here Is A Link To The Full Report

Overall, it is a pretty good summary of the current state of petroleum supply, consumption and short-term options to offset petroleum decline for the US.

Not overly technical or overloaded with statistics.

http://www.hilltoplancers.org/stories/hirsch0502.pdf

[Synnical]

72. Thank you!

91 Pages - I'll read it later, but it looks interesting. Wondering which US Government Agency instigated this report?

[Gump9005]

73. oil

They need to do something about these darn gas prices : (

[Mojorabbit]

74. I have done a ton of reading on the subject

and I am preparing. I think we will have an economic collapse by the end of the year before we have to worry about peak oil though so either way I will be at least partly self sufficient.

[bobaloo2]

77. Today's article

For anyone who's willing to listen, Mike Ruppert has a new article up that summarizes things well.

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/031005_globalcorp.shtml#0