Olduvai: Peak Oil = Die Off

[PeakOil2008]

Much closer than you want to believe. Denial is fatal.

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/olduvai2000.htm

The theory of civilization is traced from Greek philosophy in about 500 BCE to a host of respected scientists in the 20th century. For example: The 'reference runs' of two world simulation models in the 1970s put the life expectancy of civilization between about 100 and 200 years. The Olduvai theory is specifically defined as the ratio of world energy production and world population. It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: from 1930 to 2030. The theory is tested against historic data from 1920 to 1999.

Although all primary sources of energy are important, the Olduvai theory postulates that electricity is the quintessence of Industrial Civilization. World energy production per capita increased strongly from 1945 to its all-time peak in 1979. Then from 1979 to 1999 - for the first time in history - it decreased from 1979 to 1999 at a rate of 0.33%/year (the Olduvai 'slope', Figure 4). Next from 2000 to 2011, according to the Olduvai schema, world energy production per capita will decrease by about 0.70%/year (the 'slide'). Then around year 2012 there will be a rash of permanent electrical blackouts - worldwide. These blackouts, along with other factors, will cause energy production per capita by 2030 to fall to 3.32 b/year, the same value it had in 1930. The rate of decline from 2012 to 2030 is 5.44%/year (the Olduvai 'cliff'). Thus, by definition, the duration of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years.

The Olduvai 'slide' from 2001 to 2011 (Figure 4) may resemble the "Great Depression" of 1929 to 1939: unemployment, breadlines, and homelessness. As for the Olduvai 'cliff' from 2012 to 2030 - I know of no precedent in human history.

Governments have lost respect. World organizations are ineffective. Neo-tribalism is rampant. The population is over six billion and counting. Global warming and emerging viruses are headlines. The reliability of electric power networks is falling. And the instant the power goes out, you are back in the Dark Age.

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/olduvai2000.htm

[bpilgrim]

1. http://news.globalfreepress.com/movs/Al_Bartlett-PeakOil.mp4

http://news.globalfreepress.com/movs/Al_Bartlett-PeakOil.mp4
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/images/wakeup!!!.gif
http://www.hubbertpeak.com

more...
http://www.peakoil.net

http://images.GlobalFreePress.com

psst... pass the word ;->

peace

[autorank]

2. Please, spare me the drama. It's all good. Just think the huge

effort that this will require. We've got great leaders, * and Blair, who think of the planet. Oh, and there's China and India, polluting at a rate they've earned by providing slave labor. Things will all work out, trust me!

[Conservativesux]

3. Solent Green time folks. Forget the SUV's; We'll be fighting over food!

Zero Population Growth always had it right.

Too damn many people and not enough resources to go around.

[applegrove]

4. Isn't Olduvai a gorge where they find the first hominids?

Is that why it is named so? Dam - I always thought it was a good Swahili world.

:grr:

[PeakOil2008]

6. Back to the Stone Age

Literally.

[aquart]

5. Oh, what utter crap. Ever hear of candles?

What idiot's theory is this?

[PeakOil2008]

7. Yep. There's a big Candle waiting for us in the New Dark Age

[karlrschneider]

11. What are the units on the ordinate of that graph? billions ergs...per...?

Not sure how to calibrate it.

[applegrove]

12. We'll always have whale oil... err well maybe not so much!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

10. Not to mention hydroelectric, nuclear, solar and wind.

I do, however, believe that there's a world of pain coming from the loss of fossil fuels (within a generation? :shrug:).

[applegrove]

14. If you are in Canada you have hydro. n/t

[applegrove]

15. I wonder how the Cree of northern quebec will treat us?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

21. Or the Pacific Northwest. n/t

[applegrove]

26. Yes - when they take back the planet and control the water, wind & sun

- how will they treat us? I hope better than the way we treated them. Interesting that they will control the 'grid' in Washington & California aswell!:shrug:

[DoYouEverWonder]

17. Legalize industrial hemp

and half of our problems would be solved. Heck, while they're at it, might as well legalize cannabis, then the other half of our problems would be solved too.

[RoyGBiv]

23. Or at least ...

Make us not care as much. :-)

[mikehiggins]

8. So a guy calls me up

and says, fuel cells.

Just like Mr. Robinson telling the kid, plastics.

Governments are not going to collapse because of oil, they're just going to get more repressive.

Time to go green in a real way.

[brainshrub]

9. According to this chart:

In the year 3000 men will not need to shave and they'll be allowed to walk around nekkid with an archery set and a dildo.

Sign me up!

:D

[Conservativesux]

20. Sounds like Planet of the Apes to me.

[Extend a Hand]

13. It seems likely that we'll have several years

of rapidly increasing fuel costs before we run out of oil completely.

Are you personally doing anything to prepare now?

[Conservativesux]

18. Yeap. Stock up on supplies, buy used- not new, save like crazy...

live within your means..ect.

We might not have it too bad, but the children under 20 sure as hell will.

ZPG had it right 30 years ago.

I listened. No kids to worry about for me.

[Swamp Rat]

16. Maybe Malthus had a point after all?

Regardless, I plan on eating republicans first.:evilgrin:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

24. Once you cut out the asshole...

...there's not much meat left. :(

[Swamp Rat]

25. LOL! n/t

[Extend a Hand]

27. hahahah

LOL

[SpaceBuddy008]

19. Alert DU now under attack -PO, many threads is alone cause for suspect

There has not been enough true "formerly living matter" through ALL of creation to account for the volume of petroleum that has been consumed to date

1752 ="fossil fuel"?
laws of thermodynamics
underground coal fires
aircraft carriers geez they sure must burn alot
illusion of scarcity = oldest trick in the book
coordinated campaign's well, I guess will just have to see, won't we

cheers

[RoyGBiv]

22. The problem with this theory ...

... at its most fundamental level is that it is based on a flawed historical model using insufficient data to extrapolate the measurements out even a year with any degree of accuracy. I've seen this same kind of model suggest, using the same seemingly convincing sets of data, that the decline began in the 1960's and would transition to the "cliff" by the 1990's. Well, guess what.

Put more plainly, the model assumes current trends in energy production will remain static in the future and unaffected by new or different methods of production. The model, in other words, suffers from the very same problem that could and likely will cause a major energy crisis of some sort. At that point in this model, the rather bizarre assumption is that no significant positive attempts will be made to face the problem for hundreds of years after that problem has become undeniable. This, then, contradicts the premise of the earlier part of the model in which humans searched for new and better energy sources.

And before anyways says it, yes I said "new" and "different." The fact that the US and China are doing nothing but making sure this model moves forward according to schedule ignores a lot of what is going on. Some nations are planning well ahead, Sweden and Norway for example, and some individuals in the offending countries are on the cusp of technologies that, when the revolution comes, will make them the new energy barons.

The issues examined via this model are certainly important and need to be highlighted like this. But, they are counter-productive when presented without suggesting courses of action or allowing for alternative data sets that alter the outcomes. As is, it comes across as yet another Doom & Gloom scenario, which tends to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[chlamor]

28. Cantarell The Worlds Second Largest Oil Field Is Dying

Consider the following:

"The second largest producing field in the world is the Cantarell complex in Mexico. It lies 85 kim from Ciudad del Carmen.   The field was discovered in 1976 and put on production in 1979.  This is one of the geologically interesting oil fields because the producing formation was created when the Chicxulub meteor impacted the earth.  The upper reservoir is a brecciated dolomite of Uppermost Cretaceous age. The breccia is from a shelf failure (underwater landslide) when the meteor hit.  This 950 foot thick rubble became the reservoir for one of the biggest fields in the world.
The second largest producing field in the world is the Cantarell complex in Mexico. It lies 85 kim from Ciudad del Carmen.   The field was discovered in 1976 and put on production in 1979.  This is one of the geologically interesting oil fields because the producing formation was created when the Chicxulub meteor impacted the earth.  The upper reservoir is a brecciated dolomite of Uppermost Cretaceous age. The breccia is from a shelf failure (underwater landslide) when the meteor hit.  This 950 foot thick rubble became the reservoir for one of the biggest fields in the world."
<snip>
"Originally the field had 35 billion barrels of oil in place.  Now, in place oil is not reserves.  They expect to get around 50% of that oil out of the ground to market. The field reached an early peak in production of 1.1 million barrels per day in April of 1981 from 40 oil wells. By 1994 the production was down to 890,000 barrels of oil per day.  At that time, cumulative production was 4.8 billion barrels.  In 1995 it was producing 1 million barrels per day and the Mexican government decided to invest in that field to raise the production level.  They built 26 new platforms, drilled lots of new wells and built the largest nitrogen extraction facility capable of injecting a billion cubic feet of nitrogen per day to maintain reservoir pressure.  Doing this raised the oil production rate in 2001 to 2.2 million barrels per day.  Today the field produces 2.1 million barrels." 
"A couple of weeks ago I ran into this from the oil industry rags I read. It is a chilling thought since this is the 2nd biggest producer of oil on earth. Ghawar produces 4.5 million bbl/day, Cantarell, 2.2 million bbl/day, Da Qing and Burgun around 1 million per day."
<snip>
       "Supergiant Cantarell continues to be the mainstay of Mexican oil production, with 2.1 MMb/d of output in 2003 up from 1.9 MMb/d in 2002. However, Cantarell is expected to decline rapidly over the next few years, falling as far as 1 MM b/d by 2008. This has given particular urgency to Pemex's efforts to develop other fields and move into deepwater." For now, Pemex's best alternative project is the heavy-oil complex known as Ku-Maloob-Zaap, in Campeche Bay close to Cantarell. Output from this complex was 288,000 b/d in 2003 and is expected to rise to about 800,000 b/d by the end of the decade." 
<snip>
"The implications of this upcoming decline are tremendous to the world. This field produces half of what Ghawar does and it won't be doing that much longer.  The effect on the energy supply will be felt and there is no way for that not to happen.  On Aug. 3, 2004, the OPEC president stated that OPEC has no more spare capacity.  They are pumping all out and can't satisfy the demand for oil.  If fields like Cantarell begin declining, the problem of supplying the world with oil will only get worse."
http://home.entouch.net/dmd/cantarell.htm

[Fovea]

29. 19th century energy use with

21st century knowledge could, if we have a stable population, provide a far better life than Hobbes would predict. In fact, far better than we have now, as we are choking in crap. Our air is foul foul foul and if you are my age you can *see* the difference every sunset.

But never fear, climate change will provide the direct and indirect means for that brutal goal of a sustainable population. I even have faith that it is a positive integer. But Autobahn world is ending, every day we try to sustain it, is another week of misery on the back end.

And we will have to return to diverse crop model intensive agriculture, which is better for everyone. Farming makes you respect the earth, and we don't much respect her nowadays.

[RoyGBiv]

30. Embrace the Chaos

A friend and I were talking the other night, trying to determine what happened to us, that is why and when we went from idealists to cynics.

The realization we came to was that we'd stopped embracing the chaos. What historical models actually teach us is that the most progressive leaps in human history have come on the heals of the most dramatic, i.e. chaotic, changes.

Your comments remind me of that, which is all a long way of saying I think you're on to something here.