Second American Civil War Coming?

[solinvictus]

In light of the endless crusade of the Chimperor, a Congress hell bent on passing more pro-corporate laws, and a failing domestic economy, are we headed for another hot civil war?

[Fenris]

1. No.

[uppityperson]

2. Don't think it'll be gunfighting in USA, but definetely fighting.

I wish to be around in 100 yrs to see what history has to say about today. Unless it all falls to shit and there is no future history for people.

[solinvictus]

4. Proles and inner party members...

that's the way it seems anyway. The economic and social division in this country seems more pronounced than it ever has in my life.

[RoyGBiv]

5. 100 Years from Now

The people alive a hundred years from today will have been born just as ignorant as we were. If history up to this point is any guide, the majority of these people likely will know very little about this period of time, or they'll know myths and half-truths, and a few will know various facts that can be interpreted in a number of ways.

In the end, they'll look at their own time and claim that it was "different back then" and that the upheavals of their own time are worse or more unique than anything that has come before. They'll be both wrong and right, just as we are.

I say this because, interpretations of various facts aside, we today have not yet even begun to experience the kind of social, political, and economic upheaval that those of generations as recent as 100 years ago from us went through. The notion of another civil war has cropped up at regular intervals of about 20 - 30 years ever since the actual one ended, and it was mentioned in not-so-hushed tones in the halls of Congress for decades prior to that.

Of course, this opinion assumes that it doesn't all fall to shit leaving no history for people to interpret. :-)

[marmar]

3. There's already...

A cultural blue v red civil war going on of sorts. I don't know if one with weapons and such is coming, but if it is, the Blue army needs to go to Texas first. I'm starting to wish the outcome of the Spanish-American war had been different!

:nuke:

[RoyGBiv]

6. To those voting "yes"

Could you please flesh out your theory? What's the trigger? What groups face off against each other?

[solinvictus]

10. I'm not certain...

I just wonder how much more the average American worker is going to take? Dropping wages, tort reform, bankruptcy reform, sluggish job market, lawmakers taking the calculated decision to enable outsourcing. When will it be enough?

[RoyGBiv]

16. The Average Worker

Have you ever heard the term "cable poor"?

It refers to those who are constantly having utilities cut off, go significant lengths of time without a really decent meal, possibly smoke and/or drink, and only rarely pay their rent on time. Yet, they have cable with the HBO and Showtime combo.

The point of that is to highlight the fact "poor" means different things to different people and societies. I do not mean to downplay the plight of the truly poor and those who are hurting, but at this point in our history, those numbers are minuscule in comparison to the "cable poor." And these aren't even what we would call "average" workers.

For the average worker to stand up and take notice words like "sluggish" will not in any way be applicable. "Catastrophic" brings on revolution, not "sluggish."

I mean no disrespect and actually think the question is a good one in a sense because we should ask the kinds of hard questions that illuminate where we are and where we could be going. But overall, the term "civil war" is thrown around far too loosely. When and if our present circumstances start approaching those of the late 19th and early 20th centuries (and they could, but at present they are not even close) then you can safely speculate. But as it was, we did not have a civil war then, although revolution was certainly in the air and did in fact take place in a number of ways.

A "hot" civil war is a different sort of animal. The real and tangible threat or occurrence of a total alteration in the social and economic order is required for it to take place in a society like ours. We had that in 1860. We have not had it since, have only come close on a couple of occasions, and it wasn't really that close then.

Things are not good today, and they are getting worse, but Bouncy Ball hit at the key to what instigates a civil war. The so-called middle class, your "average worker," has to feel this real and tangible threat bearing down upon him before an entire society will erupt into open warfare against itself. A 50/50 split in an election in which only 60% of eligible voters took the time to bother shows quite clearly not enough people feel that threat.

For my part, I'm not yet willing to kill people because my benefits suck or I have no job security despite my education and talents. And let's be clear. We're talking about a willingness to kill people and in turn risk being killed along with our families and friends, directly, not watching them being killed on the TeeVee or hearing about it third hand when we choose to do so.

As a related aside, I saw a thread on DU not long ago in which a poster asked that threads including pictures of those killed or injured in Iraq be marked with a warning of the graphic nature of the pictures. If we're still that squeamish as a society that those of us who oppose this war down to our very marrow cannot fathom to look at the destruction we create while we sit at our computers unless we choose to do so, we're not even at the beginning stages of being ready to experience it ourselves.

[solinvictus]

17. Squeamish...

Some times I believe Americans have become too damn squeamish and servile for our own good. It amazes me that France, a nation we ridicule for surrendering in the Second World War, will flood the streets with workers over a 35 hour work week. Ukraine, a nation that's been free about a decade, had full stoppages over a rigged election.
"Cable poor" is a good term, that's the root of our problem as well.

[RoyGBiv]

18. Very well said ...

Americans in general really don't get it, and I don't exempt myself from this either. I think I "get it" better than a lot of people, but I do not have the kind of perspective that comes with experience.

By that I mean we, on the whole, really don't understand, truly, what it is like not to be able to tune it all out if we want.

As is typical, we'd do well to pay a little closer attention to our European cousins. They've been through all this, and some at least appear to have learned the lesson for the moment. The lessons we've learned or should have learned apparently weren't ingrained well enough.

[shadowknows69]

32. when enough of us....

are digging through the King's garbage for our food. If Laura ever says "let them eat cake" then it's on biotch.

[RPM]

20. culture gap + energy shortage/peak oil = hot civil war

People will look for scape goats.

The 'libruls' who brought things to this terrible pass so that G*d hates us will be made to pay.

Reds shoot first, blues shoot back.

Reds better organized, and inherit a dying world.

They die off before jeebus returns - those last to die are disconsolate at no rapture happening. 'Libruls' get the last laff... of course they are dead, but if the could laff they would...

[solinvictus]

22. Reds...

I hope they're packing and better prepared than I, if they want to take me out. I'm something of a survivalist and intend to be well prepared in my urban apartment to ride out a storm. Otherwise, we'll hit the woods at my granddad's place in the country.

[RoyGBiv]

31. Severe energy shortage ...

That could do it.

Who shoots first and at whom is highly speculative at this point, however.

The current version of the never-ending culture war is not so extreme as some make it out to be. And, the red vs. blue thing doesn't tell a quarter of the current story, if that much. Sure, it's all over the television and publicized out of all proportion, but it's not all that dramatic in the grand scheme of things. I expect the current status of it will have little direct impact on the course such a conflict would take.

[donheld]

7. Kind of a Civil War/Revoltion all in one

It's coming. If the rest of the world doesn't gang up on US and :kick: our butts for being the world bully.

[DistressedAmerican]

8. I Doubt it. But if it did I'd join up!

A Couple From My Post Election Civil War Series:

[Bouncy Ball]

9. Here's what would have to happen

for major revolt in the US:

the middle class would have to get hungry (quite literally) and scared.

When that happens, look the fuck out.

Until then, no worries, just borrow more money, turn up the cable TV, eat your frozen dinner.

[solinvictus]

11. Borrow the money...

I told my SO tonight, look for creditors to issue cards like hell once this bankruptcy "reform" passes.

[goodboy]

21. intresting...i never thought of that...you mean predatory lending, right?

[leftofthedial]

12. it's already here

[mattclearing]

13. Only on the Internets.

What, are we going to take up arms? Give me a break.

[solinvictus]

14. Spanish Civil War...

I can see some parallels in America, especially if you read Hugh Thomas or Orwell's "Homage to Catalonia".

[mattclearing]

15. No way.

Inner cities aside, this society is so far removed from actual warfare, there's no way you will see it here again without a foreign invader.

Although if some aliens or the Chinese or somebody developed a mind to "regime change" us, I can see Jesusland and the United States of Canada quickly becoming a reality.

[Demonaut]

19. more of a culture war, little violence but an awakening

of the true American spirit, the neocons want royalty, lords and A King to rule over the peasants

[ultraist]

23. I agree, a revolt against the ruling class is more likely

35.9 million Americans live in poverty. The middle class is getting squeezed, YET, Bush was still voted in. (sort of)

I don't think people are anywhere near ready to revolt. Even the Kerry voters. Things will have to get a lot worse or the Bush admin will have to get found out doing something even more horrific than the Iraq war. But in that case, impeachment likely would be pursued before a revolt occurs.

Granted, we expect a certain standard of living, and no one will accept going back to early 19th century standards, but more will have to go hungry before any violence breaks out.

I think it's important that Dems keep the pressure on by keeping Gannon stories and any other evidence of corruption, no matter how big or small, highlighted, just like they did to Clinton. My God, we heard about Clinton's expensive haircut for weeks. Dems also need to be the opposition party and NOT pander to the Repukes on anything. This is the form our civil war will take.

Our country is more divided than it ever has been, according to some.

[RoyGBiv]

35. More Divided ...

"Some" are wrong, imo.

We're divided, sure, and probably more divided than we have been in, oh, 40 years at least, but not more divided than we've ever been by a long shot.

The 1790's, 1850's, the 1890's through the 1920's and then the 1950's and 60's. Those were divisions.

[shadowknows69]

29. can I buy some of your faith in humanity?

I could really use it. I think we're fu*ked.

[RoyGBiv]

34. You don't need faith ...

Just look at the history of the world on a grand scale.

Things have been much, much worse. They will be worse still.

[shadowknows69]

30. can I buy some of your faith in humanity?

I could really use it. I think we're fu*ked.

[Briarius]

24. Honestly, no

As much as people here would love to see the * admin and the corporate whores thrown out into the streets, it won't be a civil war.

Let's be brutally honest, how much attention does the average person pay to the overall situation of the country? Almost none. They usually believe what the news tells them, not because they're lazy or stupid, but because they're too busy. They've got jobs and kids and friends and Lost or Survivor or whatever. And even if they did have time, they feel totally powerless to change things, because that's how the media and schools have conditioned them. Politicians are elected, then they go away for four years or so, and then they have to be paid attention to again. That's the normal perception. I think we forget here how little the average person knows about what's going on in Washington outside what's on the 6 o'clock news, if that even.

What I'm getting at here is that most people don't know how bad things are or who's to blame even. In short, things may get worse, but there will not be a war.

[Melynn]

25. I say, BRING IT ON!!

Seriously, I don't think it is going to happen as along as the middle class can be strung along by the media and easy credit. The only way there could be a civil war is if there would be another great depression. I don't think that today's average America would put up with 20% unemployment rate. What is ironic is that Bush and Co. is so arrogant, they just might try to tip America into a economic depression if they thought it was to their advantage.

[solinvictus]

26. Depression..

If we have another one in this society, there will be mass bloodshed. I sincerely believe that.

[RoyGBiv]

28. Get ready for it, then ...

This country has sustained its longest period since it was established without a major depression, which is bucking the odds and typical economic cycles more than a little.

Of course a good deal of the reason we haven't had one is due in part to the kinds of economic reforms put in place in the wake of the last one. With the current regime hurtling headlong into trying to undo every last one of them, we're begging for it.

It's sorta like those "I want my hard drive to make a sound like a screaming Banshee" commercials except that it's "I want my economy to tumble like barrel over Niagra Falls."

[Technowitch]

27. Maybe.

[DU GrovelBot]

33. ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##

==================
GROVELBOT.EXE v3.0
==================



This week is our first quarter 2005 fund drive. Democratic
Underground is a completely independent website. We depend almost entirely
on donations from our members to cover our costs. Thank you so much for
your support.

[EST]

36. Yes, I think something of the sort is coming.

It won't be as clear a division (as if that were clear) as the one civil war fought here, but, with allowances for the rapidity of communication, the fact that all the really potent weapons and troops will be on one side only, the built in dependency on common resources (water, power, etc,) one should not expect some really major conflagration.

So many have the notion that they can disappear into the wilderness and rough it, however, we have such an excess of population that a year of failing public services will suffice to starve the masses into complete subjugation. Those of us who have looked ahead and built up a hoard of edibles will have pretty well eaten themselves into survival poverty after a year. The woods, plains, and any leftover farms will have been totally cleaned out. The remaining poor will be reduced to scavenging, and perhaps eating each other. A rat or a squirrel will be a rare delicacy and will have to be eaten immediately (no refrigeration) and probably raw (can't afford to attract attention with a fire or the mouth-watering smell of a roasting rat.)

Clean water will be just flat unavailable for the vast majority and, since human feces has to be composted for at least a year, disease will run rampant.

The real battles will be between the unfortunate and the even more unfortunate. The civil war part will show up in the kind of run and gun tactics, the hidden explosives, and the kidnappings for ransom (or long pig) that the current crop of "insurgents" or "freedom fighters" are demonstrating for the education of the observant.

With the fundamental "just in time" approach we are currently using for our energy needs (rather than investing in large scale recyclable energy from windmills or some other renewable source,) the powers that be have the entire population at their mercy, and they don't need us.

This may appear pretty bleak. It is.