Has Microsoft begun its slid into obscurity.

[alfredo]

I have felt that MS had peaked some years ago, and that soon it will begin to slide.

Here's a business reporter that sees signs of MS's decline, not through financial numbers, but through behavior.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/print?id=88655

The health of established firms, especially great ones, is more difficult to diagnose. The balance sheet can give some clues, but, because it captures the recent past rather than the near future, it can fool you. Most veteran reporters look at more subtle clues, like the comings and goings of key employees, slippage in the release dates of new products (or missing features), and subtle shifts in the tone of company news releases, advertisements and executive speeches.

But most of all, at least for me, there is the smell test: the faintest whiff of decay that comes from dying companies.



From fool.com

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fool/big.chart?sid=3140&time=10yr&freq=1dy&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&ma=0&maval=60&uf=0&lf=1&type=128&mocktick=1&country=US&doChartIV=0&currType=126274&style=1785&size=1&symb=msft&rand=711

[Junkdrawer]

1. Well, XP was a step *backward* from Win2000....

How many times can you simply reshuffle an OS and expect it to sell?

Same story with almost all of their products.

They can't make money selling bug-fixes, and who shells out money to buy an even buggier and more confusing version of what they already own?

[megatherium]

8. xp is better than Millennium Edition,

but it still sucks. I was running Windows ME when I got a cable modem. That was a horror show, it would crash (blue screen of death, down for the count) when I tried to download and watch video. (I have a 1GHz Dell with 256MB ram.) I put XP Professional on it (which I get free from work), and it was much much more stable.

The problem with XP is not its usability (not much different than the Mac OS in my opinion) but in its administration. The constant security updates, the hassle of software installation and deletion, and the barrage of spyware, adware, worms and viruses -- Macs are largely immune from this (both because they're only 4% of the desktops, and because their engineers made some wise decisions about the design of OSX).

Recently I converted to Macs. (I'm writing this on a 12" iBook. My only regret buying this iBook is I should have payed more for a more powerful model.)

As far as the viability of the company, I think MS isn't going away anytime soon. They have a near monopoly in the operating system, but even more important is their monopoly on office suite software. But there may be cracks in the facade. Word is that the most popular mp3 player on the Microsoft campus is the iPod.

[blonndee]

2. Microsoft BLOWS. Their site is unnavigable. n/t

[alfredo]

3. Doesn't their site poke around on your hard drive

to see if you are using pirated software? Or is that an urban legend?

I guess it is easier to play offense than it is to play defense. It appears that even with the help of John Ashcroft back in 2001, they are still not able to gain complete control of the internet and the desktop.

I wonder how many virus writers attack MS products just because of their dislike of their business practices?

[Fescue4u]

4. Maybe but its got a LONG LONG way to go

before its obscure.

Still the #1 software company on the planet by a healthy margin.

While there are competitors nipping at the heels, its still pretty much a david and Golaith comparision in every market they are in.

Microsoft is essentially settling into becoming a blue chip stock like a Ford, or GM. Overtime, we see some strong #2's that will be a viable alternative and even some #1 when Microsoft becomes #2.

But obscurity? Well at their current rate of slide, it'll still couple decades before that happens.

The days of doubling and splitting every year are over.

[alfredo]

5. It was during the time when there was revenue growth that the

investors were flocking to MS. I wouldn't want to invest in a company that has been flat lining for 4 - 5 years. I don't see many wanting to put money into a company that seems to be going nowhere.


How long has it been since they have had a killer idea? If Longhorn doesn't show up soon and cause a buzz, it could be a problem. Many people use MS products because they have to, not that they want to.

In Pharmaceuticals they always talk of the pipeline. You don't invest based on what is on the shelves, you invest on what is coming down the pipeline. I don't see much in MS's pipeline.

They failed to create a buzz with XP. Many saw the "X" in XP as an attempt to grab some OSX mindshare. When their flagship OS hit the shelves, it looked like a scene from Telly Tubbys. Their design team needed to be horse-whipped.

[randome]

7. I tend to disagree.

I don't think comparing a 21st century software company with another century's manufacturing firm is a valid idea.

Rises and declines tend to happen faster these days.

[Rex]

6. They will have to get a 64bit OS up and running fast.

IBM has been doing it for decades. Alas, I don't think MS will ever truly peak. It has become a corporate thermometer, the man in charge is the richest man on planet Earth.