An explanation about polls

[jeter]

I worked for a polling/survey firm when I was in University. My boss was awesome (unfortunately he died this past fall).

Anyway he explained a lot about polls to me. The first and most important lesson was not to take polls that come out too soon, too seriously. Rather you should be looking for trends.

People aren't paying close attention. Therefore, they don't know many of the names of Democratic candidates. I read some polls the other day on pollingreport.com that said as many of 66% of people had never heard of Howard Dean. Therefore it entirely makes sense that he would trail in the polls (even though 40% say they would still support him)

This should tell you two things: 1) people don't know who Dean is; 2) that regardless who the nominee is, 40% will definitely vote against Bush.

That Lieberman, after having been the VP nominee in 2000, can't do better than the margin of error with Howard Dean in a head-to-head match up against W. it spells doom for him.

Now two recent polls got my attention. One was by CNN/Time and the other by Zogby.

CNN/Time had a poll out this week that said:

29% would DEFINITELY vote for Bush
30% undecided.
41% would DEFINITELY VOTE AGAINST Bush

I was hesitant to believe this poll. There was a 12% differential between those who would vote against him or vote for him. This is a Democratic landslide. And I had not seen any other number like this.

Then came Zogby's poll yesterday:

40% think Bush should be reelected.
52% want someone new.

Again, a 12% differential.

You see the trend? For the first time since Sept 11, more people want someone else as President. And by a wide margin.

His numbers truly are in freefall.

[Brucey]

1. Cool!

This is too beautiful, if true. But, Shrub has not started his campaign yet (lots of money, media control, and people are sheep), plus the fact that people always say they'd prefer someone else until you name a specific person, then you lose a lot of voters. Most of the Dems don't have high negatives yet, but the Shrubbers will take care of that with help from late night comedians, Sunday morning talkheads, talk radio, and others. Still, there is hope, and lots of work to do. Get out the vote, talk it up, keep the pressure on.

[spooky3]

2. I agree. Also...

a lot of events can occur between now and the election. If, for example, the economy takes a strong upturn, many sheeple will give W. credit for it. If things improve substantially in Iraq, or if OBL is caught, again it will help the Repugs. On the other hand, if the economy continues its downward spiral, etc., the issue will become more important to more average citizens, and it will be harder and harder for * to blame problems on Clinton or on 9/11 rather than his own disastrously poor stewardship.

[spooky3]

3. PS, I am sorry about the loss of your boss

He sounds as if he was a great guy.