Economic `Armageddon' predicted

[Jon8503]

Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.

But you should hear what he's saying in private.

Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including a group at Fidelity.

His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''

Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said, ``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in public.''

Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that ``we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon.''

The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.

http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356

[unblock]

1. our nation's fiscal problems require genuine leadership

shrub acting like a kid with the keys to the candy store is NOT what we need right now.

MAYBE in 4 years, fiscal problems like insanely large deficits will once again become acceptable topics of political discussion, and MAYBE there may be some national resolve to do something about it.

but that's 4 years further down the road of financial neglect or worse.

ugh. not pretty.

[aneerkoinos]

7. Waiting for genuine leadership

is the poison that is killing you. You got plenty of genuine leadership with Bush, more than you can stomach.

How about not asking what leadership can do for you, but forgetting about all Great Leaders and asking what YOU can do to help your fellow men?

[unblock]

9. nice post, wrong topic

on a different topic it would be appropriate to bypass the white house and try to implement the right thing in our families, neighborhoods, cities, states, and country without waiting for the white house to lead us to do the right thing.

but with the topic at hand being the country's economic future, well, it's kinda hard to tackle that locally. it's hard enough to steer the battleship from the helm.

not much i can do about the federal deficit from the cheap seats, beyond working to get our guy in 4 years from now.

[aneerkoinos]

10. Wrong

Local level is all you have left, your country, at federal level, has no economic future. Sooner you realize and accept that and give up false hopes on federal level going to do anything but try steal what you have left to pay soldiers and buy weapons and then pollute it, the sooner you can start doing something about your ecology.

Foreign capital flows to US are drying up, massive escape from dollar assets getting more and more likelier. That means bankrupty for all practical reasons. That alone would not be that bad, but natural gas production in US and whole North America has allready peaked, and global peak in oil production is close. Since Reagan your Federal economy has actively wasted every opportunity to prepare for the situation and curb addiction to hydrocarbons, especially oil. Now it's kinda too late to do anything effective (like high fuel taxes a là Europe) on the big scale, perhaps you still got few years to do something worthwhile on local scale, community coops to conserve and build biofuel, wind, photovoltaics plus share locally made products is highly recommended.

If you don't but rather wait for some Librul Messiah it's getting more and more likely that you will die.

[cliss]

2. Thanks for posting.

I read Mr. Roach's assessment of the US economy. Someone posted posted a similar link on a financial thread about 2 days ago.

I was so intrigued that I read his speech. This is no Jeanne Dixon making predictions. This is an economist for Morgan Stanley. He carries a lot of clout.

Now, there were 2 things that struck me about his speech:

1) He's pleading with other countries to take action to help prevent "financial Armageddon". In particular, he's begging China to do certain things, like devalue its currency and cool down its overheated economy. He says the "fate of the world rests with China".

2) He asks that the US stop consuming so much shit, and that the rest of the world starts consuming more. In other words, everybody else needs to become like us !!!!!

I don't know how anyone else feels, but to have our "fate" in the hands of China DOES NOT FEEL GOOD. I don't like the idea of a communist nation which has a terrible human rights record "saving" me.

Is this what we've come to?

[Jon8503]

4. Thanks for the comments, this is one thing that really has me

worried.

What if China & others stops buying our bonds.

Wal-Mart is the largest buyer from China.

I don't see us controlling our destiny any more if we don't get a handle on this.

I don't see us getting a handle on this with the current administration.

[AgadorSparticus]

5. i've always thought china would be our greatest threat.

but to hear it from the economist from MSDW is pretty damn scary. it is almost surreal.

[JanMichael]

3. I emailed this prediction, along with the interview with Krugman that...

...was published today, to a couple of co-workers. One told me that I scared the "piss" out of him but thanks. The other just pissed his pants.

[KnowerOfLogic]

6. The New Depression is on the way; no doubt about it. After

4 more years of Bush, the american economy will have hit just about rock bottom; but of course they'll blame it all on Clinton, and the christian armagedonists will turn out in droves to vote for him.

[MsConduct]

8. I'm not surprised. And just think of all the money....

the 'privatized' social security dupes are going to lose!

[Snotcicles]

11. And when it's all said and done, it was those fucking liberal Democrats.

[snoochie]

15. What was those #$@*#(% liberal Democrats?

Please explain that statement.

[Deja Q]

16. I think he's being sarcastic. With the repukes in power, they WILL

spin it.

And thanks to Clinton eliminating the 55MPH federal speed limit, they do have a claim.

But, objectively, it was Reagan's dismantling of Jimmy Carter's alternative energy programs (using the excuse of "alternative energy programs are obsolete") that began our never ending lust for the stuff.

[Wiley50]

12. Yep. Brought to you by Peak Oil

Please read this link:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/BAK411A.html

Happy Holiday!

Wiley

[AlienGirl]

13. Will there be deflation or inflation?

[Killarney]

14. thanks for posting. interesting n/t