interesting comments from Larry Sabato (should make Deanies happy)

[uptohere]

Been listening to Larry for decades, before anyone ever heard of him, and he's right way more often than he's wrong.

Anyway, he says that if Dean wins NH and Iowa it could very well be all over owing to the relatively brief primary season. Its hard to recover with so little time to do it making momentum more impelling than normal.

He says Kerry MUST win NH or he's toast. Ditto Gephardt and Iowa. And with a sweep of both by Dean, SC and the rest won't matter.

And one other thing I had not considered, he feels its typically the rather liberal end of the party that actually votes in the primaries anyway which would be troubling for the moderate elements.

Anyhoo we'll make a note and see how smart Larry looks in early 2004.

[HFishbine]

1. February 3rd

I think NH and Iowa will not be the the end all -- too few delegates and no measure of southern opinion.

Feb 3rd will matter. On that day, these states have primaries (or caucuses):

Arizona Presidential Preference Primary (Closed)
Delaware Democratic Presidential Primary (Closed)
Missouri Presidential Primary (Open)
New Mexico Democratic Caucus
North Dakota Caucuses
Oklahoma Presidential Primary (Closed)
South Carolina Democratic Presidential Preference Primary
South Carolina Primary Election

If a second or third place finisher in NH and Iowa can manage a first place finish in SC and one or two other states this day (watch Edwards), the race will continue. Some important states (CA, NY, TX, OH, GA, WA) don't vote until March 2nd.

If someone doesn't lock it up on Feb. 3rd, it's going to continue at least until March 2nd.

[JaneQPublic]

2. Similar comments from ABCNews' "The Note"

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/TheNote/TheNote.html

Dean (is the major Democratic player) because he is likely to raise twice as much (and maybe three times as much!) as any Democrat in the third quarter — which we'll know come mid-October, and that will be a political earthquake. The Note is a big believer in the nearly iron-clad rule of modern American politics: the person who raises the most money in the year before the voting always wins the nomination (and Howard Dean will be that man).

Not to mention that come January, when everyone else runs out of time to raise money the old fashioned ways, Joe Trippi (after Dean is — inevitably — attacked) will put up the bat, says there are three weeks to go, and the money will pour in — whether Dean has decided to take the match or not. And Dean matters lots because no one can give a linear explanation of how he's denied the nomination — he might not get the nomination, but can anyone write a simple sentence explaining why?

---snip

Is Dean making progress on the electability front? More and more … It's not just that his stump speech is flashing its centrist blinkers. It's in simple accoutrements, like, say, a steady drumbeat of (somewhat) important, (semi-)resonating endorsements.

And in the dirty little (actually: "massive") secret of this stage of the campaign, the national political press corps is nearly united in its views that Dean (a) CAN be the nominee and (b) just might be the most fun to cover in the general.

MORE...

[Cha]

4. If Dean gets the nomination, IMO, he will Win!

Talk about the Excitment of our Lives! :kick:

[caledesi]

5. President Dean....ah, the sound

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Clinton Lost IA and NH and Won The Nomination

I'd have to take a hard look at how compressed the primary season is...

Larry Sabato's a bright guy.... But what he dispenses is pretty much garden variety conventional wisdom...

Any second year poli-sci student will tell you that party activists make up a disproportionate share of primary voters. That's why, as the conventional wisdom goes, a Dem runs left in the primaries and in the center in the general election and a Rep wons right in the primaries and in the center in the general election..... At least that's what conventional wisdom says...

Sabato's point about Dean winning IA and NH is well taken... A win for Dean in those two states knocks out Kerry and Gep cuz IA is critical for Gep* and NH is critical for Kerry.

Should Dean knock off Kerry and Gep the salient question is does somebody emerge from the pack to challenge him.

*Iowa has alot of union members and it is a caucus state. For anybody who's been to a caucaus it ain't a primary. You don't vote and go home...You have to listen to speeches and stuff... The unions will make sure their folks attend and vote. Gep squeaks out a win in IA and keeps things interesting...

[uptohere]

6. his point is that there isn't time to catch up from the pack

and this is probably reinforced by the fact that "the pack" have sort of given up hope on Iowa and NH.

I think that if, say, Edwards shows a strong second in those two (and there is no sign of this at this time) then perhaps he has enough seperation to catch up.

Larry IS a bright guy and he goes vanilla most of the time because thats why vanilla got to be vanilla. I watch for when he starts going a little chocolate. He surprized me this time so I'm watching.