DU this poll but Pay Close Attention

[DuaneBidoux]

It is on where you think the stock market will go next 12,000 or 8,000

THIS IS A CONTRARY INDICATOR. YOU WANT TO VOTE 12,000. A VERY UNBALANCED BULLISH INDICATOR IS USUALLY A SIGN THINGS WON'T GO WELL.

<http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV/Promos/P100395.asp?ShowResults=1#Vote>

[Tesibria]

1. uhm... link...? nt

[Kire]

10. link, sans results

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV/Promos/P100395.asp?

[aquart]

2. 81% say 12,000.

You're sure this is a bad thing? I would have thought it would drop like a stone (but I am not a wise person in these things).

[DuaneBidoux]

6. It's a bad thing when EVERYONE THINKS its going up

This is because when people say they believe the market is going up they have already bought and are expecting it to go up. But there always has to be more people to buy or markets can't head up. So when you start getting 80% of the people saying it is going up and 20% saying down this means there isn't anybody left to buy and the market CAN'T possibly rise.

Of course that doesn't mean it won't. But extreme bullishness on a market (bullishness means everyone thinks it's going up) usually is the absolute time to sell. Trust me, I'm a trader.

[aquart]

9. I believe you.

And I thank you for a sensible, easy to follow explanation.

What I don't understand, of course, is why anyone would think a market would rise under a Bush. Aren't there lots of nicely charted statistics showing that the more in control the Republicans are, the worse the market?

[DuaneBidoux]

11. Yes actually there are and it is as follows

(although you may not like it)

Dem Prez Repub Congress Market is best
Rep Prez Dem Congress Market is second best
Dem Prez Dem Congress Market is third best
Rep Prez Rep Congress, eventually you get a depression.

[Lone Pawn]

3. I'm not an econ guy...

Could you explain why we should vote 12000? It would seem as if that would help increase investor confidence. Self-fufilling prophecy and all. I'm kinda confused.

[DuaneBidoux]

4. I'm a trader trust me

This is called a contrary indicator. When EVERYONE thinks the market is going up it means they have already bought (because they EXPECT it to go up). Every single time the market has headed down it is when at least 80% of the people THINK it is going up.

[CBGLuthier]

5. Shouldn't we vote what we think

Instead of what we are told to?

[DuaneBidoux]

7. Good question

I voted 12,000 because I don't want it to go to 12,000 (it is a contrary indicator). I actually have no idea what the market will do but I do know I don't want the Corporate Rethuglicans to be rewarded as long as Shrub and company is in office.

If you watch the CNBC poll when they announce it around lunch, if it is still 80/20 bullish (meaning 80% think it's going up) you will hear comments of concern that this could be a bad indicator for the economy (again, it's contrary).

Sure, vote what you think. I personally don't have a clue which way it's heading-I just don't want the rewards to flow any more to those corporate Rethuglicans.

[m berst]

8. brilliant Duane, thanks

Think people. Common sense here.