Beating Kerry was the easy part
With the dollar in free-fall and foreign investors worried about the U.S. trade deficit, Bush faces a cloudy economic forecast.
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/11/08/economy/index.htmlNov. 8, 2004 | NEW YORK -- Despite being armed with fresh "political capital" and the will to spend it, President Bush in trying to implement his second-term plan to reorganize Social Security and simplify the federal tax code will be subject to America's economic health. Even as Wall Street welcomed the president's reelection and the Nov. 5 employment report showing an unexpected increase in the rate of job creation, economists, the markets and foreign leaders indicated concern over the weakening dollar.
Coupled with worries about the high price of oil, the nation's ballooning domestic budget and foreign trade deficits, concerns over the cost of healthcare, the escalating costs of one war and the costs of likely future adventures, few are willing to make boldly optimistic forecasts for the U.S. economy.
Despite a rise in the markets, the focus of concern last week was on the dollar's continuing decline and intensifying worries that mounting U.S. budget and trade deficits could collapse the currency. While Treasury officials dismissed the scenario as a scare story, economists said the dollar could be heading for a severe selloff unless the White House and Congress make serious efforts to shrink the budget gap.
Economists' fears of brewing trouble are shared by many Americans, who, after three years of apparent economic recovery, no longer believe the economy is improving. A "consumer comfort" poll by Money magazine found that 42 percent of Americans surveyed said the economy was still getting worse. But almost a week after his victory, President Bush has shown little serious interest in assuaging Wall Street's fear of the deficit. While Bush has promised not to raise taxes under the guise of tax code simplification and to cut the budget deficit in half by 2009, even a minor slowdown in growth will make deficit reduction targets all but impossible to meet. Further, with a clear majority of the popular vote and Republican control of both houses of Congress, the president is under no political obligation to meet his commitment to reduce the deficit.