2006 Senate Races

[liberalpragmatist]

We're clearly going to have to focus on congressional races wherever we can. I'm sort of an amateur political junkie so I don't claim to know much about the House swing districts.

I'm a little more familiar with the Senate, however. So here are some quick assessments of the different senate races and the candidates.

Here are the key races we'll have to watch.

First, pickup opportunities. Unfortunately, exc. for Pennsylvania, these are all states that went to Bush this year, most of them solidly red states and the others swing states leaning-red.

Virginia (George Allen) Virginia Sen. George Allen is very popular, so it'll be hard. However, Gov. Mark Warner could make it into a true battle. However, it remains to be seen whether or not Warner wants to run. He may well decide to run for President in 2008 instead.

Rhode Island (Lincoln Chafee) - no way we're knocking him off. Then again, we probably won't need to. This could be a pickup in '06 or even sooner if we can get him to switch parties.

Tennessee (Bill Frist) - Frist will retire in '06 in order to pursue the presidency in '08. Now, he may change his mind, but let's operate under the assumption that he sticks to his word and retires. Rep. Harold E. Ford, Jr. is planning to run. He'd be a strong candidate, however, he'll probably still be the underdog.

Montana (Conrad Burns) - The racist Burns will be up for reelection. He barely won last time around against the guy that will be Montana's new governor, Brian Schweitzer. If we can find a strong candidate, we can win here.

Texas (Kay Bailey Hutchison) - Hutchison will step down and run for governor. It's POSSIBLE for us to win this state, though unlikely. Ron Kirk, the losing '02 senate nominee might be a good choice. Other good choices include Kirk Watson, the former mayor of Austin; Former Rep. Ken Bentsen, the son of the '88 VP nominee and former Senator Lloyd Bentsen; Rep. Chris Bell - the guy whose spearheading the anti-Delay thing right now; Martin Frost; Rep. Lloyd Doggett (probably too liberal). It'll be an uphill battle, but we have some strong candidates. My biggest fear however is that there's no way a Democrat can win statewide while W's still President (and yes, we're stuck with him for another 4 years...sigh).

Mississippi (Trent Lott) - Lott will probably retire. If so, it's an open seat, and we should at least try to put a good fight in for it, although whoever we put up will probably be a DINO.

And... our biggest two opportunities:

Pennsylvania (Rick Santorum) - we MUST get this guy! It's a Dem-leaning state. Please. Right now, I've read that Ed Rendell wants State Treasurer Barbara Hafer to run. She's a former liberal Republican and was the GOP nominee for Governor one year. She's from back when the Pennsylvania GOP was represented by John Heinz.

Missouri (Jim Talent) - This one will be tough. Missouri tends to like it's incumbent senators. The state's still a swing state, but right now it's going through a Republican swing. Still, we have a shot. I think the strongest candidate would be Claire McCaskill if she agrees to run - she ran a remarkably strong race for governor and is much stronger in rural areas than Jim Talent.

Now, our hardest calls - the most likely to lose:

Minnesota (Mark Dayton) - the state DFL is in shambles right now and the GOP, at least at the state level, is ascendant. Dayton has unfortunately made himself very high profile. He's going to have a very hard fight. The likely candidate at this point is Rep. Mark Kennedy.

Nebraska (Ben Nelson) - This state is hard-right. We have to be careful and really work hard, for I worry that Ben Nelson may face a tough race.

Florida (Bill Nelson) - Bill Nelson is pretty strong, and he should be aided by the fact that with 8 years of Jeb, the state may be ripe for turnover in the governor's mansion - most states are after 8 years of one party. Still, we can't get complacent. Bush's fundy turnout in the panhandle should make us think quite hard.

West Virginia (Robert Byrd) - Byrd will retire. The state is where much of the South was in the '70s. Becoming reliably Republican in Presidential races but still voting Democrats on a state level. We have to be vigilant here - we cannot let this state stop electing Democrats for statewide office. Probably, Rep. Mollohan will run. But the GOP will put up a good fight here.

Washington (Maria Cantwell) - I don't expect her to face a very tough race, but we shouldnt' get complacent. The state has a lot of fundies in the interior and they may have won the governor's race this year. Cantwell won an extremely close victory last time around.

North Dakota (Kent Conrad) - Can Conrad survive? I think so, but let's not forget that we though Daschle will be safe. Of course, Daschle was mostly hurt b/c he was Democratic leader. So Conrad will probably be safe. But we may face a tough race here.

California (Dianne Feinstein) - Feinstein may retire. We'll probably still win, but Arnold will probably try to get some popular Republican on the ballot. We'll likely hold it, but we should prepare for what may be a close race.

[Dickie Flatt]

1. DFL isn't in complete shambles

We increased Gore's lead and came one seat away from a perfectly split state house, for a gain of 13 seats.

[dflprincess]

4. Just to clarify for those not in Minnesota

the DFL has a narrow majority in the state Senate. State senators were not up for reelection this year.

It is the state house where we gained the 13 seats. Some of the more extreme Republican incumbents were defeated. One district is being recounted (less than 200 vote difference) and, if that outcome changes, the state house will be split evenly between DFLers and the Repukes.

However, I think Mark Dayton will have a tough fight on his hands. It's being assumed that Mark "Screech" Kennedy will be his opponent (though I've heard John Kline mentioned as well) and we all know what kind of campaign Screech runs.

[Abelman]

2. I know!

Time to get to work.

[On Par]

3. Addressing Pennsylvania

Santorum is the most hated Republican senator from our state that I can ever remember.

His santimonious stances have outraged the dems as well as the Republicans. In '06 we'll have a governor's race and Santorum's seat will be up for grabs.

While we fully expect Rendell to be re-elected, right now, we'd like to see Chris Heinz run against Santorum. Chris' Dad, John Heinz, was a moderate Republican often voting with labor, for the environment, and other meaningful legislation. If he hadn't died in a plane collision, we'd have never heard of George Bush. John Heinz would be President of the US.

We can only hope that Teresa convinces Chris to run. While Hafer has name recognition, she's an old war horse whose party jumping would be more of a liability than an asset. Heinz has the name recognition and the money to back him.

And remember, you heard it here first!

OP

[BayCityProgressive]

6. I dont mean to sound down

but at this point I think we will be lucky to keep things even and not lose more seats.

[fujiyama]

5. I'm not encouraged

with our chances in even taking senate seats in red states.

After the showings the other night I feel as though they'd just as soon want democrats dead in most of the states. I still can't believe so many states that appeared close in polls were lost by double fuckin digits.

Bush simply did better in every single state. I'm deeply disturbed by this country.

[WI_DEM]

7. Nelson of Nebraska will win--he is a fairly conservative senator

and pretty popular.

[pstokely]

8. Talent didn't win by much in 2002

he barley lost against Bob Holden in 2000