Why did Kerry concede before the provisional ballots were counted?

[Eric J in MN]

Kerry trails in Ohio by 136,000 regular ballots.

There are 150,000-250,000 provisional ballots.

Why didn't Kerry wait for the provisional ballots to be counted before conceding?

[eternalburn]

1. Skull & Bones (nt)

[ogradda]

2. i dont know

no idea at all.

[SammyWinstonJack]

3. The $64,000 question

Let's ask him! Think he'll answer us? :eyes:

[kiahzero]

4. There weren't enough (not every provisional ballot is valid)

and, from what I hear, they weren't in the right districts.

Furthermore, as they said, they are going to continue to fight to make sure every ballot is counted.

The concession speech is meaningless, legally, and helps us in terms of PR.

[bushisanidiot]

10. Yep. It's a PR move. The ballots still have to be counted regardless of

who concedes Ohio.

[knowbody0]

11. shhhh

[Qutzupalotl]

14. Really?

It's not over? If it turns out Ohio went for us, we could still win?

[Kierkegaard]

17. True.

If, once all the ballots are counted, Kerry has a majority, he is our next President.

[Eric J in MN]

19. Kerry should have fought for every voter whose

credentials were questioned.

[BayStateBoy]

5. Provisional + Absentee + "suspicious" ballot results

There have to be a number of heavily democratic precincts that had far fewer tallies for Kerry than anticipated.

These suspicious results should be recounted if there are tangible ballots present.

[knowbody0]

6. secret plan

[Pirate Smile]

7. He said they looked at the numbers and figured out that there was no

way he could win. If there was a way to win, he would have fought.

You know he looked at all the calculations before he decided. He wanted to win.

[The Backlash Cometh]

26. He owed it to us to see the process through.

We earned that.

[Qutzupalotl]

8. We were behind in New Mexico and Iowa

just slightly, but we needed all three states.

Personally, I think he would have gotten most of those provisional ballots, but he would need a recount in IA and NM.

[Zynx]

22. No we don't need IA or NM

Ohio gives 272

[Eric J in MN]

23. We didn't need NM or IA if we got OH. Kerry has 252.

Add OH's 20, and that's 272. Whoever gets 270 or more wins.

[Qutzupalotl]

30. You guys are right.

I need sleep.

[zwielicht]

29. Even without OH: NV,NM,IA were still undecided -> 269:269 !

and how many early votes and provisional ballots are still not counted in the close states?

and what about punch cards?

[sushi]

9. That's what I would like to know too!

:shrug:

[mark414]

12. because they saw numbers that we didn't see

i wish a lot of people would shut the fuck up about "kerry being a pussy, kerry turning his back on us, letting us down"

the moral values shit killed us

fucking killed us

[Kierkegaard]

20. Thank you for that.

I've been in here slugging all day, standing up for Kerry's decision. If he had any other recourse, he would not have conceded.

[Sterling]

25. Really, what values?

Do you really buy that crap? Rupuks have no values, except hate.

[mark414]

31. "moral values"

perception outweighs reality, whether we like it or not

i underestimated it, and it killed us

[jmaier]

13. I wouldn't second guess this decision

They have the vote tallies, provisional tallies, etc. precint by precint. I'm sure they cut the numbers a hundred different ways -- if a possible, semi-realistic win scenario was there, they wouldn't have conceded. No one wanted a John Kerry win more than -- John Kerry.

[Kierkegaard]

15. Because the probability of a win in Ohio

was very near impossible. There will be challenges to a number of those ballots and a number that will be invalid. The remainder would probably be within 100,000 and maybe 200,000. Even if you take the high estimate, he would have to be at 70% +. That's the optimistic view. More likely he would have had to win upwards of 85% of those ballots to claim the state.

[PATRICK]

27. The binvisible fraud was unproveable

and the lost votes just lost(challenges etc). Their SOS, whom my car brakes will not work for strangely enough, was revealingly comfortable.
He's a rich man today. it ashowed they didn't ehave to work so long as the challenges were confined to limited helpless issues.

No one listened to Palast. No one backed Beverly Harris. The dems preferred the old fashioned visible stuff and couldn't even handle that.

I have no clue what Edwards is talking about.

[madfloridian]

16. Didn't Palast say it was the uncounted punch cards that mattered?

He mentioned something on AAR today, but I just caught it in passing.

[MsUnderstood]

18. Because statistically speaking he didn't have it

If Ohio is split right down the middle, and there were 250,000 ballots and 10% of those are tossed out, you are left with 225,000. He could only get 1/2 of that (using the trend) which would give him 112,500 votes--not enough to win.

Why fight it and look like a sore looser and give the RW something more to focus upon.

He won the primary, he won the debates, he won everything but we were beat long before today. We were beat when our government did NOTHING about the scandal in Florida or Ohio in 2000. IT is like getting robbed and leaving your door wide open cause you think "it couldn't happen twice in a lifetime".

[Eric J in MN]

24. Provisional ballots are probably 90 percent for Kerry.

It was the Repbulicans who were challenging voters.

[Qutzupalotl]

32. I think so, too.

From what I'm hearing, when they're counted, then we'll really know who won. Until then, the concession is not legally binding.

Wouldn't that be a grand flip flop! In your face, DictatorTot!

[TomNickell]

21. The actual number was smaller--150,000.

And, they all -will- be counted.

[Fla Dem]

33. Many would have been excluded. I also heard there were only136,000.

Even if he was to win 90% of 150,000 is only 135,000, and that's if none were thrown out. I am sure they looked at it every way to Sunday. He would not have conceded if there was a snowball's chance in hell he could of won. This man spent the last 2 years crisscrossing the country, sleeping in holiday Inns, riding buses, etc. He would not have given up if there was the slightest glimmer of hope.

[tibbir]

28. I'm trying to make sure I understand.

If, after all the ballots (provisional, absentee, etc.) are counted, Kerry really won Ohio he gets the 20 electoral votes regadless of his conssession today?

It would seem like a long shot but it would be something to get up in the morning for.