IF the incumbent does not enjoy over 50% support, then there is a strong likelihood that those who are undecided will NOT support that incumbent .... and that the challenger will get their vote ...
that the incumbent is known to the electorate, and if people haven't determined to vote for him/her before the election he will not get their vote. Consequently, the undecided voter will make a lat minute decision for the challenger.
11. When the incumbent is polling less than 50% this close to the election...
then it's a sure sign that he/she won't be re-elected. Apparently undecided voters tend to break for the challenger at the last minute. I don't know why (then again, I can't understand being undecided at this point) but that's what all the mouthpieces on the network news channels are saying.
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