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Dear XXXXX
By now we're all sick of the campaign and I know you've probably made up your mind. But give me 5 minutes. We both know this election is the most important in our lifetime. Can we afford to make a mistake? What are the broad issues in play?
WAR ON TERROR: Forget the sound bites. Common sense tells us any war must focus on the existing enemy and not create new ones. After 911 the enemy was obvious.... it was Bin Laden, his radical jihadists and the Taliban who sheltered them. Suddenly we're fighting Ba'athists, Sunnis, Shiites, Iraqi nationalists opposed to occupation, new Al Quida recruits, and anyone else driven by Iraq's culture of revenge. When we should have ratcheted down tensions with Arab world, trying to ally with moderates against those few jihadists... the whole Islamic world is now inflamed. How did things go so terribly wrong? Here's the thumbnail history of the past four years.
Leaving aside the question of whether 911 could have been prevented as the Chair of 911 Commission believes.... we now know that even before 911 Bush and his neo-conservatives wanted to invade Iraq. 911 provided that excuse. But what shaped their policy? Several titanic forces clashed in the Bush administration. The first were the neo-cons like Cheney and Wolfowitz. They believed in a radical new doctrine. Unconcerned about legalities or alienating old allies they wanted to impose a Pax Americana on the world. It was quite the flip-flop for Cheney who in 1991 predicted any Iraq invasion would be a "quagmire". The second force was Rumsfeld who had a radical agenda to make the Pentagon meaner and leaner. The result was an ill-conceived war plan to be done on the cheap which diverted resources from the hunt for Bin Laden. It reversed the long-standing Powell Doctrine: to insure there's a vital national interest, to use overwhelming force, and to have a clear exit strategy. The neo-cons also rejected Powell's Future of Iraq project. It predicted chaos after a US invasion. Oops.
Bush spent 2002 building support for invading of Iraq. It was a scare campaign of dire warnings... mushroom clouds and WMDs. With NO evidence Bush insinuated Saddam was linked to 911. Even today over 40% of Americans believe this falsehood. Curiously in 2002 the military had drawn up plans to attack al-Zarqawi's base in Kurdish-controlled Iraq. Bush refused three times thinking it would weaken the political support for the war. Now al-Zarqawi leads the terrorists in Iraq. Oops.
Fall 2002: many in Congress opposed a second war when Afghanistan was not yet secure. Bush promised Congress he wasn't a cowboy. He'd go the UN route, work with our allies to get Inspectors back into Iraq. But first he wanted Congress's backing to show Saddam the US meant business. It seemed logical. What other language did such murderous thugs understand? Bush got his war resolution and most everything he wanted from the UN.... except a resolution giving the US permission to act alone in behalf of the UN. Why did Bush even want this language?
With no UN mandate Bush pretended he had a broad coalition. But only THREE allies provided troops for the invasion. After the UK those contributions were a paltry 2200 troops. In 1991 Gulf War allies other than the UK sent 300,000 troops. Bush tried to buy off nations offering $15 Billion in aid to Turkey alone. Other nations were bullied to support the war or have trade deals blocked. THIS is why it was called Bush's coalition of the coerced and bribed. Only in May 2003 after the UN recognized the US/UK as occupying powers did other nations send troops. Bush constantly blurs the two coalitions. Why?
January 2003: Saddam had caved in to every demand and in February 2003 UN Inspectors were finding evidence that Saddam had destroyed his WMDs back in 1991. None the less, Bush began the war that March ending the work of the UN Inspectors... work which we now know would have proved the war unnecessary. If that isn't a "rush to war", what is? Iraq was the first test of the radical Bush Doctrine of preventive war. But there were no WMDs, no connections to 911 or Al Quida, and Saddam was a toothless tiger. The "gathering threat" justification for war proved so vague it could be hijacked by the radical neo-cons. That Bin Laden got away at Tora Bora was bad enough. This Iraq diversion gave Bin Laden two more years to rebuild his terror network and hatch new plots. Now he's back. Oops.
So where there OTHER good reasons for the war? Surely spreading democracy was a laudable goal. But why not pressure our friends in the region to institute democratic reforms? Why rush to war? Why alienate allies? Why risk inflaming the Arab world? Why risk the Arab world thinking the US was making an oil grab or a Christian president was on a new Holy Crusade? Did Bush really believe his invasion would NOT create more anti-US hatred? Apparently. He listened to those like Ahmad Chalabi, convicted as an embezzler in Jordan but beloved by those neo-cons. Chalabi promised US troops would be greeted with flowers. Oops.
AXIS OF EVIL: Before Iraq our ace in the hole was our military might. Bush played that card in Iraq and our enemies learned to trump it. Surely the troops weren't to blame. Rumsfeld's doctrine of war on the cheap was. But, worst, the invasion made the "rogue" nations like Iran and North Korea realize their best deterrent to a US invasion was to accelerate WMD programs. Didn't Bush claim the Iraq invasion would get them to stop? Oops.
FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY: Once the Republicans were the party of fiscal responsibility. What happened? In 2000 Bush ran on protecting the Clinton surplus to pay down the debt thus strengthen Social Security. He broke his word. Where it took 205 years for the US to run up the first 1700 billion in debt, Bush managed the same in less than 4 years. While politicians hide behind the abstract numbers, here's how much money that is. In tightly packed $1 bills, Bush's debt would cover a football field... 160x360'... with a skyscraper of cash nearly 1300 FEET tall. The FY04 deficit alone was 568 BILLION... not the 415 Billion often reported. We can't even fund our own military without borrowing money from nations like China! We may like those tax cuts, but at what point are some irresponsible? Remember, if We The People are in debt, ALL tax cuts are really funded with money borrowed from our children. A family of 4's average share of the debt is over $100,000. As for Social Security, Bush now claims only he can fix what he spent four years undermining. Clearly Bush can not run on his record so he exploits 911 and spins an ill-conceived war that's going badly. He has some great applause lines like "we're fighting terrorists there so we don't have to fight them here". It sounds like a plan but is it? None of the 911 hijackers were Iraqis... and many became radicalized as students in EUROPE not the mid-east. Bush invaded a pressure cooker of nation rife with ethnic and religious tensions. Cheney understood this when he said in 1991 Iraq was "inherently unstable" and any invasion would be a "quagmire". Yet Bush risked it. He diverted resources away from Bin Laden, bogged down our military, and unleashed unparalleled anti-American hatred. Terrorism, predictably, is way up. When you strip away the spin, does this REALLY sound like an effective war strategy? Or has Bush has made the US and the world LESS safe for perhaps decades to come.... not that Bush ever admits mistakes. If you're leaning Bush, please reconsider. Kerry has some warts but none of Bush's fatal flaws. You may disagree with Kerry's on some positions but he's looking out for you, not the corporations. He's thoughtful, not reckless. Maybe you've bought into the $100 million ad campaign to distort his record. Remember that infamous 87 Billion vote. Of COURSE Kerry voted to support the troops. He just favored the bill that was fiscally responsible. Kerry's "global test" was merely a rejection of the radical Bush Doctrine and a return to our traditional foreign policy of working in good faith with allies.
We're told it's unwise to switch horses in mid-stream. But if you're crossing the Mississippi and you realize your horse is blind, ya, it's time to switch. The nation must have more competent leadership.
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