Maybe a dumb question, but just what the hell is a "likely voter"?

[karlrschneider]

Are there really more than a tiny handful of people who haven't yet decided WHETHER to vote (let alone for WHOM to)?....
I don't understand why there's so much of a distinction between "likely" and "registered"...
:eyes:

[TimeToGo]

1. Someone who voted last time

[Warpy]

9. Someone who voted the last TWO times

In other words, somebody who voted in 2002, also, and we know who THEY are and who they voted for in Congress.

That's why "likely voter" polls are so heavily skewed to the GOP.

[punpirate]

2. Most pollsters have differing views of what...

... constitutes a likely voter, but, generally, they consider one to be a likely voter if one has voted consistently in all of the last several elections. One pollster might say, last four elections, or last three. To them, I think, that's a likely voter.

[marew]

3. Likely voter...

According to what I heard a likely voter is one who is not only registered but has voted before and meets other specific criteria set by that specific poll. I believe it does not include newly registered voters. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong but I'm sure heard that recently because I had been wondering the same thing.

[karlrschneider]

4. Okay, I guess I wondered if they just asked people if they were "likely"..

(never been polled for some reason) And Welcome to DU!
:toast:

[Jim__]

5. "Likely voter" is an ambiguous term

Google "Likely voter" and you can get some idea. Different polls use different definitions. An example:

Many pollsters will use one or more “screening questions” to allegedly ascertain who is and is not a “likely voter.” The balance of the survey is then administered to those who are judged to be “likely voters,” while the rest get a polite hang-up.

Two sets of problems emerge. First, how good are the screening questions at ascertaining likelihood of voting? Not very. Of course, all pollsters say their screens are “well tested” and they “work.” But have they gone back, after the election, to determine how many of those who passed or failed their screening test did or did not actually vote? No.

... more

[Cleita]

6. More Orwellian doublespeak IMO.

If you talk about nonsense, then you don't have to talk about the real issues.

[WillyT]

7. Here's One Article On It !!! (Slate)

<snip>

The exact methods differ from company to company and are often proprietary, but pollsters generally ask respondents about their past voting habits, their level of interest in the race, and the intensity of their allegiance to one candidate or another. The longer and more elaborate the questionnaire, the fewer likely voters the sampling is prone to yield.

Some pollsters, for example, will ask only whether the voter showed up for the last election and whether they plan on doing so again. Since many people feel slightly guilty about not voting, or want to appear more politically engaged than they really are, such polls tend to dramatically overstate the number of likely voters. Pollsters refer to this approach as a "soft screen."

<snip>

Link: http://slate.msn.com/id/2104727/

:shrug:

[benddem]

8. county voter files

keep track of your votes...not how you vote...but which elections you have voted in. These lists are not secret and are available to pollsters etc. In Oregon we consider a likely voter one who has voted in 4 elections. Generally 5 is considered a person who will vote no matter what...they vote in local elections, bond issues, etc.

[karlrschneider]

10. Well, that's very interesting. I didn't realize it - think I will ask my

county election board for a list just for the halibut. ;-)

[Starlight]

11. Some require that you voted in the primary as well as the last few general

elections. I didn't vote in the primary. I also missed at least one recent local election. So, apparently, I'm unlikely to vote now either. :shrug: I think this criteria tends to eliminate a lot of us slacker liberals from their polling numbers.

[Maiden England]

12. someone who is more likely to vote republican

OK, maybe not, but that's how it felt in the days when I still wasted my time watching CNN.

[ThomWV]

13. Jesus Christ Folks! Haven't You Been Polled?

They ask you. That's all there is to it. I've participated in at least a dozen polls (including being a regular on Zogby's list) and each one of them has had the simple question, how likely are you to vote in the upcomming election, alot to alittle, usually 4 graduations. Where is the mystery in it?

[Starlight]

14. No. No, I haven't.

And I think that's much of the problem. They call the same people over & over again.