Important question for Dean supporters

[WilliamPitt]

I read a recent Boston Phoenix article the other day about Dean's campaign. The article essentially suggested that the next five weeks will essentially make or break Dean's run. It described in meticulous detail all of the extraordinary gains his campaign has made as far as fundraising and grass-roots organizing, and states bluntly that such excellent work is why Dean stands as the front-runner today.

But the five-week window caught my eye, and is why I am posting this question. The article asked the same question: How is Howard Dean doing with collecting endcorsements from local politicos? I'm talking about the regional captains who control the electoral machines, who have the people to do the phone banks, who have the people to drive the old folks to the polls, who have the people to hold the signs, do voter registration drives, envelope stuffing, etc.

These are the endorsements that win election on the local and state-by-state level, and this is, I fear, a potential weakness for Dean or any "outsider." Long-timers like Kerry and Gephardt have had connections to these local pols for years and years, and have the endorsement-getting advantage.

I have absolutely no idea, and have heard very little, about how Howard Dean is doing in the collection of these make-or-break endorsements. So that's my question: How's he doing with this?

P.S. The Phoenix article I referenced is below. I find the Phoenix to be an excellently progressive paper, FWIW:

====

Howard Dean’s make-or-break point

The next several weeks could be key for the former Vermont governor. Can he press enough flesh and garner enough endorsements to power his New Hampshire momentum?
BY DAVID S. BERNSTEIN

http://www.bostonphoenix.com/boston/news_features/talking_politics/documents/03120523.htm

HOWARD DEAN’S campaign for president has a five-week window. Sure, the former Vermont governor leads the polls in New Hampshire — a mid-August American Research Group survey found him at 28 percent to Senator John Kerry’s 21 percent and Congressman Dick Gephardt’s 10 percent. And he’s bringing in the bucks — the $7.6 million he raised in the second quarter surpassed the funds raised by each of his Democratic opponents. But in the echo chamber of presidential politics, he faces a potential endorsement gap that could undo him. (Endorsements affect polling results, polling results affect fundraising totals, fundraising totals affect endorsements, and so on.)

In five weeks, Dean’s third-quarter fundraising totals will be made public. If he can keep his momentum going until then (drawing crowds, avoiding scandal, expanding his base, raising his poll numbers), and if the third-quarter fundraising numbers are good — and in the past week, Dean dropped hints that they will be, speculating that he might not accept federal matching campaign funds — then the party establishment will likely accept him as the front-runner. If anything goes wrong, the spiral could head downward in a hurry.

In the meantime, he can’t let the endorsements get away from him. After all, another $7.6 million won’t matter if the party faithful have already pledged their support (along with their crucial phone-bank, sign-holding, and get-out-the-vote efforts) to someone else. Dean’s opponents are asking key party supporters to endorse early, as a way to derail the Dean campaign — and some have done so. Most notably, a handful of national labor organizations endorsed Gephardt this month, including the Paper, Allied-Industrial, Chemical & Energy Workers (PACE) International Union, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, and the United Steelworkers of America. Terry Shumaker, executive director of the National Education Association–New Hampshire (NEA-NH) confirms, "This cycle is starting much earlier than in previous years."

So Dean is frantically trying to deter leading party activists from making any commitments, at least until fundraising reports come out at the end of next month. "We’re saying, give us until September 30th to show that this is a viable candidate," says Joe Trippi, Dean’s campaign manager. "You can support one of these guys tomorrow, or in October, so just give us until September 30."

That was the message last week during Dean’s three-day tour of the Granite State. In between impressively well-attended public events — during which he appeared in shirtsleeves and chatted amiably with ordinary New Hampshirites — Dean slipped on his suit jacket, shut out the press, and met with key groups and individuals representing organized labor, environmentalists, women, gay men and lesbians, African-Americans, and Latinos. His plea? I can win. Give me five more weeks to show you, I can win.

...more...

[wryter2000]

1. San Jose, California

I got an invitation to attend a garden party for Dean at Zoe Lofgren's own personal home in San Jose, California. Haven't heard much from my immediate neighborhood, Oaktown.

[w13rd0]

2. Well, he's made inroads recently...

...the campaign has garnered several important endorsements, and healing the "rift" with the DNC has also helped. Individual members of the DLC are also bucking Al From and saying they like what Dean has to say. It's a slow and painful process, but I think you'll see a number of influential endorsements throughout September...

[Larkspur]

3. Just remember, just because Unions may endorse Gephardt or Kerry

doesn't mean that the union members will work for them.

I'm a member of NOW and on the board of Connecticut NOW. National NOW recently endorsed Carol Braun, but National NOW can't force us to work or contribute to her campaign. We can't use NOW's name publicly when we work for another candidate, but National NOW can't force us individually to support their candidate. I think that the same is with Unions. The Union bosses and boards can endorse a specific candidate, but that doesn't mean that the union members will work or vote for the endorsed candidate.

Regarding political endorsements, I think as the Dean Campaign proves this quarter that the last quarter is not a freak, you will see more political endorsements coming Dean's way. In Connecticut, I know of state reps who support Dean, but because of Lieberman, don't feel that they can publicly endorse Dean at this moment.

[realFedUp]

14. I thought Carol was dropping out?

Didn't her campaign manager move to the Dean campaign?

[dajabr]

4. Keep this kicked up please...

Will, I have some thoughts on this I'd like to share, but it's not fair of you to post this right before the GAME! :-)

See you in a few hours...

[ryharrin]

5. I'm not sure how many local endorsements he's gotten, but

he has, at this moment, 338,000 people who are willing to do all the things you mentioned: to do the phone banks, who have the people to drive the old folks to the polls, who have the people to hold the signs, do voter registration drives, envelope stuffing, etc.

[goobergunch]

6. Dean is picking up several congressional endorsements...

he picked up the Grijalva, Nadler, and Owens endorsements in the past two weeks, while none of the other candidates have picked up any endorsements at all in the same time period (except for Lieberman's Carper endorsement, but that's been known for months).

I don't track local endorsements, so I don't know about those. :shrug:

[Eloriel]

7. I was going to name the ones I could think of

but then I realized that there are a bunch of them he's picked up that I can't remember because they're not nationally known, but he's been picking them up right along.

So anyway I'll name a few of the nationally known ones that I can remember:

Congressman Major Owens, NY
Lowell Weicker
Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren, CA (you already know that)
Sen. Pat Leahy, VT

I was very impressed to see one of my state legislators at the Atlanta screen showing of his June 23 Announcement speech -- she hasn't, that I know of, come out and endorsed him, but her presence was duly noted. I'd worked some with her in the past (long past) and reintroduced myself. She most wanted to know if I'd discovered him via the interent. This one is very well labor-connected (is an old union organizer herself).

Eloriel

[Upfront]

8. Early Yet

First, let me say thanks for all you do. I will be taking the chair of my county democratic party to her 1st Dean meet up wed. night. No biggie. lol I do think it is early and people are just starting to take a look. The Steel Worker International saw fit to support Gebhart, but they sure don't speak for the membership of my local on this one. It would be Dean all the way with them. I don't think Dean will be stopped and I am glad of it.

[WilliamPitt]

11. It is early

Thanks. :)

[Larkspur]

12. Congrats and taking you Dem county chair

My Dem Town Chair came to my first Meetup 2 months ago. She recruited me into the Town Committee and committed to Dean about the same time I did in April. She is planning on coming to our 3rd Meetup this Wednesday. We've got Jim Dean, Howard's brother, coming to speak to our Meetup. I've been asking her for help contacting people, other town chairs she knows, and she has been very helpful.

Hope yours works out too.

Good luck!

[Rose Siding]

9. The DNC chair in WA State

backs Dean. And a blurb today in LBN tells of some McAuliffe/Dean contact- seems Dean is getting some amt of money in for national. Locally, I'm not sure, but for those who tend to get involved locally and favor Dean, the meet ups would probably be vehicles they've used.

On the blog, Trippi is using the tag "September to Remember"- making political history, local activities/functions, supporter sign up numbers and contrib totes. I think the 5 wk hook is to encourage and rally- a current, attainable goal to mark progress.

[CMT]

10. endorsements

I read on his blog the other day that when he was in San Antonio for a rally that two local state senators (or representatives, I can't quite remember)endorsed him.

He also recently got the endorsement of the Mayor of Minneapolis.

In fact, he has been doing quite well of late with endorsements including the recent ones from New York: Nadler and Major Owens.

I think in many ways that even more important than some congressional endorsements (though of course they count as Super Delegates) are local endorsements--such as big city Mayors and state representatives and I think Dean is going to do well here. When he was in Philadelphia, Mayor Street spoke at his rally, while not a formal endorsement I think (if he wins his own race in November) he probably will come out for Dean and this will also be helpful.

Also, last week over 100 labor activists in Iowa came out for Dean and are buying tv time to support him. So while Gep certainly has many labor union leadership behind him---it is questionable if they will follow the leadership. For instance, the Des Moines Register poll a few weeks ago which showed Dean and Gep statistically even in Iowa also showed that Dean had a 7-point lead over Gep among union members in the state--bigger than Dean's two-point overall lead over Gep in the state.

also, in my own state of Wisconsin--Dean has the support of the Democratic Leader of the Wi Senate, Jon Erpenbach.

[liberalnurse]

13. In Dayton, Ohio

the democratic committee membership is exploding! Filled with long time democrats who never went to headquarters but are flocking now. The new faces are Deanites. Last Thursday, there were nearly three-fourths the members there that I saw at election night 2002. The grassroots motivation is erupting now. The Dean momemntum has been responsible. I think the general consensus in May was that Kerry was going to get our endorsement but that indeed may change.

[realFedUp]

15. you could post this on the Dean blog

might get more information...

[WilliamPitt]

16. I thought this *was* the Dean blog

:evilgrin:

*ducking, fleeing*

[prolesunited]

17. C'mon, play nice.

;-)

:grouphug:

[realFedUp]

19. whatchu sayin Mr. Pitt?

you are bad.

[MODemocrat]

31. I admit it, I'm in love with DEAN

like no other candidate has done before, including Clinton and Gore.

[Eloriel]

18. That's a good idea

Might be helpful for him to post the list he already knows and ask for others.

Eloriel

[farmbo]

20. Ohio...they're not endorsing Dean, but they're not endorsing the others

They've started coming to the Dean meetups, which are a phenomenon which they can't ignore. They're starting to make contacts at the campaign level, but Burlington is too swamped to following up properly and won't send in paid staff (yet). (Ohio's a March 2nd primary). Luckily for Dean, the other campaigns aren't well organized either.

Dean has Howard Metzenbaum (former Senator) and John Glenn hasn't endorsed, but served with Kerry, so he's a wild card.

Jane Cambell (Mayor of Cleveland) did appear at a Dean fundraiser.

Columbus mayor Mike Coleman hasn't endorsed, but seems pissed off at Kerry, and has made gratitutious comments about Wes Clark.

Gephardt got Cong. Sherrod Brown's endorsement early.

Many NE Ohio Dems are staying neutral in deference to Dennis Kucinich.

[Philosophy]

21. Endorsements are overrated

I think Dean is mostly bypassing the traditional heirachical electoral machines based upon mutual back-scratching and cronyism in favor of a more populist following that is spontaneously generating its own machine. It's a purer form of democracy that I find refreshing.

[WilliamPitt]

22. I dunno

That'd be nice if it were true, but I don't think it is. You need these local machines for local work - Dean does not and will not have enough people to do all the basic legwork nationally that needs to be done; he'll have to import out-of-staters to a variety of places, and those imports won't have the pulse of the local people.

As for it being a "purer form of democracy," I think that's a wee bit naive. Democracy is shoe leather and local power bases. Always has been.

[jafap]

32. always will be?

I must have been out of the loop or something. I have never seen this shoe leather thing except in my dad's campaign for the school board. I do not like the sound of your post, realistic though it may be - it sounds like Joe X gives an endorsement and 100 or 1000 of his flunkies jump to vote for whoever he endorses. I have voted for over 20 years and have neither been a boss nor a flunky. I did make some calls in 2000 for Gore, but that was only to get registered Democrats to vote. When I got calls before that I never understood their purpose. I was a little bit put off by them. I did not need to be prodded to go vote. Nor has there been a guarantee that I would vote Democratic - even after 1984.
Power bases indeed - "da boss says you godda vote for dis guy, see?"

[WilliamPitt]

33. Unfortunately

That is the case, whether or not you like the sound. Go look up the definition of the term 'ward heeler.' You'll find out what I'm talking about.

[Orangepeel]

23. Good question, BUT...

You are in the mindset of a traditional campaign. The endorsements you are talking about are much more important to those candidates who are following a traditional top-down campaign model. Dean is not following a tradiitonal model.

Where is Kerry, for example, going to get the people to knock on doors and make phone calls? The way you describe. Where is Dean going to get those people? He already has them. They are the almost 100,000 who are already attending meetups every month, writing letters to complete strangers, and distributing flyers that they printed out at their own expense.

In my own Florida county, the "party regulars" are pretty much split equally among Graham, Kerry and Dean. BUT, Dean has a huge advantage in the ability to attract new people who are willing to put their all into the race. This early, we already have more meetup volunteers for Dean than we had do phone banking and canvassing for the entire 2002 race.

[WilliamPitt]

24. From my post #22

That'd be nice if it were true, but I don't think it is. You need these local machines for local work - Dean does not and will not have enough people to do all the basic legwork nationally that needs to be done; he'll have to import out-of-staters to a variety of places, and those imports won't have the pulse of the local people.

[Orangepeel]

25. I can only speak for my own county, but here it is true

Like I said, Dean already has more people than we had canvassing and phone banking in the 2002 race.

The campaign doesn't need to import people. It needs to post materials on the Internet to be downloaded and send lists to the meetup coordinators who speak regularly with the campaign (the same type of lists of Iowans and New Hampshirites they sent for the letter writing).

[WilliamPitt]

26. What about the local flavor issue?

How can Dean people from another state interact properly with Montana voters, or West Virginia voters? See, you need these machines. I'm not saying Dean does not have a great machine of his own coming together; clearly, he does. I'm saying that to ignore the local machines is a bad idea. Do both. As the article I posted says, his campaign is actively courting endorsements and begging them to hold off until the campaign numbers come out. There's a reason for that, "new campaign" concepts notwithstanding.

[Orangepeel]

27. I'm saying that he is in the process of building NEW local machines

the meetup volunteers ARE a local machine. To canvass and phone bank effectively, you only need one or two people with knowledge and experience and a whole lot of enthusiastic people.

This model probably won't work in all areas, because in some places the existing machine will be invincible, but most areas of the country don't have an invincible Democratic machine.

The Dean campaign shouldn't ignore any possible endorsements, but the model that he has created has made the traditional way of conducting campaigns less important. It's a whole new paradigm.

[WilliamPitt]

28. But the 'new' local machines

will have to compete with the old local machines, which will have a decided advantage...unless the new machines can get the endorsements of the old machines. Get me?

[AP]

29. 50 million people vote, and the old machines have a pretty

good system for getting a huge number of those people out. How many more people are there who the new machines are going to reach if those old machines aren't working?

[WilliamPitt]

30. Who says the old machines aren't working?

.

[AP]

34. I was in a hurry. Trying to say:

if the old machine isn't behind the nominee -- if it isn't working FOR the candidate...

I think the old machines work pretty well. I've seen it first hand.

People who say they don't need the old machine...I just don't know where they think they're going to get the millions of votes the old machines produce through phone calls and getting out the vote, etc.

[WilliamPitt]

35. Oh, OK

Right! :)

[CMT]

40. today the old machines are

predominately organized labor. In 2002 I was working get out the vote phone banks and these were organized by AFL-CIO and many of the people manning them were union members--lots of teachers I recall. I think Organized Labor is pissed off enough at Bush that whoever the nominee is will have their strong support including Dean who seems to have cordial relations with Labor and was the second choice of some of the unions which endorsed Gep. Whoever, the nominee is Gep, Edwards, Kerry, Dean, ect will have this vital support.

I think the Dean machine of nearly 400,000 nationwide (currently) and the old guard labor support will learn to effectively work together for the biggest and greatest GOTV effort ever achieved by the Democratic party and will help our candidates from the statehouse to the white house.

[Larkspur]

37. As a member of my town's DTC, I'm in both the old and new machines

I helped my party last year with the 2002 campaigns. This year, I'm a Meetup host in my area and still a member of my DTC, which has not endorsed anyone as a group yet. My town chair is on the Dean bandwagon and has attended 1 Meetup and is planning on attending the Sep 3 one.

In Connecticut, the Dean Campaign is building bridges between the old and new machines. Most Meetup hosts, including this one, are fairly new or completely new at campaign politics and we're working to pair the new with the old, who have committed to Howard Dean.

The Dean Campaign, at least in Connecticut, will be a hybrid between old and new. It is consciously understood by the Connecticut for Dean Campaign steering committee that Meetup hosts WILL BE a part of the campaign decision making process all the way through the end of the campaign.

[WilliamPitt]

38. Cool n/t

[dsc]

36. I was at the Geagua County booth

today and spoke with the Geagua County Democratic chair (this is Ohio). He is torn between Kucinich and Dean and seems to be leaning Dean's way. I also think Dean will get substantial support on Cleveland's west side if Kucinich decides to drop out before March.

[dean4america]

39. one more point on Dean "september to remember"

Hey Will,

One thing I haven't seen mentioned is a recent message Joe Trippi posted on the official blog that said the next month would be "The September to Remember," one that changes the face of American political history. The campaign has also made mention of the fact that, at the next MeetUp (9/3/03), they would be taking letter-writing "to the next level," as well as unleash a number of on the ground activities in Iowa, NH, and the like (e.g., the 500 texans flying to iowa, the DeanCorps events, etc.).

IMHO, it is a smart move to try to head off endorsements until after the 3Q filing deadline. The general consensus over on the Dean blog (and, more or less, at dailykos), is that Dean already has the 10.3 million goal in the bag (and did so when Trippi said it was their goal). If he announces in the neighborhood of 13-15 million--which is a distinct possibility--I think the endorsements will start to roll in. That, coupled with another poll that validates the 38-17 lead over Kerry in NH.

Keep up the good work!

[Malikshah]

41. The classic CATCH-22

Good question and an important one--here are my 2 cents FWIW

Dean's in the classic Catch-22. Endorsements are needed for credibility--and yet credibility is needed for endorsements.

In other words, the system favors the establishment candidates to the point of intellectual and social stagnation.

Or does it? People tend to lob labels around willy nilly: "Insurgent," "Populist," "Old Guard," etc. (I'm assuming we all accept the "liberal" "conservative" labels as a given here)

How much of an insurgent was Jimmy Carter? Bill Clinton? Howard Dean? Just what is an insurgent? How "non-establishment" are these types? The aforesaid candidates were not political neophytes by any stretch of the imagination. Were they "Washington types?" No Were they career politicians? Yes and No

If you want the endorsements usually given to the Washington types--you pretty much need to be one--which in turn will lose you many other endorsements. It's all a very tricky game of creating a viable support base and then maintaining it. (The image of someone with sticks and twirling plates on each limb plus more from his/her nose, chin and forehead--all the while trying to balance on the middle part of a teetertotter during an earthquake) Welcome to modern politics, folks. You're not going to win by pleasing everyone all the time. Yes--Clinton was accused of trying to do that--and in the end, he (or more rather, his legacy) lost.

What is different about the Dean campaign is quite akin to what was different about the 90's economy. A new device came on the market (internet) and galvanized and revolutionized the economy (for a short time in the short run--but for a long time in the long run) The internet and politics, however, is where the "revolution" continues.

When in our history has a candidate been able to use 92,000+ people in monthly meet-ups to organize and write to others, plan actions, work together,etc. When has a candidate been able to use the image of a bat (akin to the carnival clowns with the balloons coming out of their heads) to raise 508 thousand in a weekend, and then a month later raise over a million in 4 short days-each at ~50.00 a contribution. The money is not what is important--it is the number of people at the meetups, the numbers who have signed up for the campaign (342K strong if I remember correctly--someone please correct)--all of these haven't hit their 2000.00 limit. It's a well that can be gone back to again and again. All via the internet.

In other words--the internet has created the ability to create a movement, not a campaign. Is this movement monolithic? No--one only needs to read the blogs to show the pre-pubescent gangly awkwardness of the democratic process in action. Like any good Andy Hardy movie with Mickey Rooney and Judy Garland trying to put on a show in the barn in Judy's uncles back yard--the ideas are flying fast and fierce. The emotions are going up and down--fast enough and at such a rate that the hardiest of rollercoaster riders would have to think twice about eating before joining in. This is not a dig at www.blogforamerica.com I'm an avid reader and occasional poster--I'm just fascinated at the similarities among the participants feelings--their inspired, their galvanized, they're tasting their first political "cocktail" and they're realizing it's a heady drug--a fix that they cannot get enough of. Some burn out, others pace themselves.

All the while, Joe Trippi, Kate O'Conner, Zephyr Teachout--all try and calm the masses--giving information, rallying the troops, and easing the tensions. And yet--these three barely post--it is the movement individuals themselves that post and keep the movement alive.

Dean knows this--he's said it throughout his stump speeches-- basically, I'm not going to solve your problems--you are -- this is what people need and want to hear. They want to feel empowered.

Now--some people don't. They don't want to think for themselves. They don't want to believe for themselves. They don't want to act for themselves. Let others do that. Let religions do that. Let their masters do that.

This is what we have come to in this country. And the question could not be more important. Do you want to have the freedom to think for yourself? Act for yourself? Believe for yourself? Or do you want others to do all that for you?

Dean, as a candidate, clearly stands on the power of the people. Not 100% of course--as we are not 100% a democracy.

The other candidates--they are somewhere in between--

The current regime--well--we all know where they stand.

My criteria for a candidate are derived from how a candidate will answer these questions--BUT--and here is the important qualification--they must be answered not through having them asked the questions (that's too easy)--they have to be answered by looking at how the candidate acts, how they have acted in the past, and what they say.

This takes reading through the lines of their speeches for the core value within

The problem is--this takes initiative on the part of individuals and groups--it takes thinking outside of the box--it takes courage.

Many of the the "endorsers" are bereft of initiative, free-form thinking, and courage. In the end--as Dr. Dean would say--it will depend on the people.

*gets off soapbox and heads for shelter*