Reagan v. Carter, '80: What was the outlook in the last few days?

[liberalpragmatist]

I know Carter had a decent lead through much of October and it was really close, but that in the end Reagan won in a landslide.

So in the FINAL days of the race - the weekend before, that monday, and election day, what was the expected result? Was Carter still close in all the immediate pre-election surveys? Or if Reagan began to have the edge, did people expect Reagan to win the blowout that he did?

Was the electoral college expected to be close, even if Reagan was seen as favored? Did Reagan surprise people by carrying a bunch of states that were thought to be "safe Carter"?

I'm curious, because I'm sort of interested in some of the same trends may play out this year.

[swag]

1. As I recall it, Carter was said to be surging into catching up over the

final weekend.

Then Reagan won in a big landslide that was announced around 4 or 5 mountain time.

[TimeToGo]

2. Can't say I remember it all

But I do know the polls showed it to be much closer than it was -- but we learned later that Carter's internal polling showed he was losing badly the weekend before the elections.

Do remember, that polling is bigger and perhaps better (though we can argue that) than it was in 1980.

And there was no public Internet, and not much cable, so . . .

[cmkramer]

9. Early concession

Supposedly those internal polls of Carter -- which showed him losing badly to Reagan -- were the reason why he conceded so early, before the voting had even ended on the West Coast.

[Coyul]

3. Hostages in Iran......

That is what took him down,a nd despite the polls, most knew it would be Ronny in a landslide.
Can still feel that hangover!

Coyul

[Barney Rocks]

4. There was movement towards

Carter--but the debate (the only debate held) was only one week before the elction. The pundits thought Reagan did very good--and that was all they talked about the week before the election. He got a great bounce from the debate and the publicity--and that last week he gained steadily on Carter. However, I still think the landslide victory was a bit unexpected. I believe Carter although had struggled--Reagan had never gotten a huge amount of support until after that debate.

[FDRrocks]

5. "Oh, there you go again."

Friggin Reagan.

[troublemaker]

6. My recollection is that I knew it was a landslide for Reagan a few days

before the election, but only a few days. It had seemd like maybe Carter would hang on to his lead, then the tone of everything just snapped.

I expect a similar paradigm shift next week in Kerry's direction

[kcwayne]

7. I thought the election was going to be close with Carter on top

and I was shocked that Reagan won. The only news we got back then was newspapers and TV, and I didn't watch TV so I wasn't tracking it closely like we do now.

I do remember thinking "What the fuck has gone wrong with this country that so many people would buy into that dumbass actor and his religious pomposity?" I hadn't heard of the religious right and had no notion of how powerful they were, and what was coming.

The hell of it is that Reagan looks good compared to Bush. We have fallen so very, very far.

[RaleighNCDUer]

8. I don't remember tracking polls or anything. My recollection is

personal, and I remember people being charmed by Raygun. "Of course he's charming!" I'd say. "He's a fucking actor!" But after Jerry "Whip Inflation Now" Ford and Jimmy "National Malaise" Carter, Raygun was a shoe-in (shoe-in -- what does that mean?). I was in Missouri, California and Nevada in that election year and never got the feeling that Carter had a chance.

--added on edit--

It took me about 30 seconds after the announcement to connect the hostage release to the Raygun campaign -- Iran was furious with Carter over the Egypt/Israel peace treaty. Never mind that it was Carter's withholding of support for the Shaw that allowed the radicals to take power. But before the election the only news was constant reference to 'hopeful negotiations' that somehow never panned out. If the rethugs had kept out of it the hostages would have been released months earlier, and Carter re-elected.