Do you think the electoral-vote.com website is accurate?

[LZ1234]

I check that everyday. I live in Michigan and I have seen Michigan go from dark blue (heavy Kerry) to white (tie) to light blue (barely Kerry)in a relatively short time. So much variance but I'm not sure why.

[The Jacobin]

1. From the FAQ

Who are you and what are your credentials?
I am very skittish about saying much about myself. The site has been repeatedly subjected to massive attacks. I have also received much hate mail, threats, and more so I want to keep alow profile. My exact identity is not so important because all the raw data is on the site (click on "Polling Data"), so you can verify it yourself. Although I am not employed as a pollster or political consultant, I have been active in politics before this year and know a lot about it. As to education, I have taken graduate courses in statistics and have an advanced degree from a prestigious university. I have a number of publications to my credit. The BLS would classify my job as managerial/professional/technical. I have also been in close contact with experts in polling, statistics, computers, and other areas where I needed some assistance. If Kerry wins, I'll probably come out of the closet after the election; it is getting a bit stuffy in here. For more information, see the Welcome page.

[rpannier]

2. Because he takes the newest poll that comes out

So, if a reputable polling company like Zogby is the latest poll to come out and it has Kerry ahead by 11 points that is what is reported. But, if an unreliable polling compnay like Opinion Dynamics or Survey USA is the newest he reports that. That's why it changes.

[TexasSissy]

7. Hate to spoil your day, but Op. Dynamics correctly predicted the

virtual tie of the 2000 race, when most other polls had Bush ahead. I saw that in an archive of www.pollingreport.com, which lists a bunch of polls in the days leading up to the election day. Fox/Op. Dynamics had Bush and Gore tied. As did Harris. I don't think any others did. (The site didn't list a really recent Zogby, but I have read that Zogby had them tied, also, or almost tied.)

[TexasSissy]

3. Well, I don't think so. But it is interesting, IF you read in conjunction

with other polls.

Electoral-vote.com uses ONLY the latest poll for each state. So if Rasmussen (Repub leaning) comes out with a group of state polls, the site will be skewed that way. Then if Gallup comes out with a group of state polls, the site will be skewed that way. He doesn't like to play favorites among polls, so he sticks with the formula.

So if you're going to use that site, you really need to get the picture over a period of time to see a trend based on DIFFERENT polls that he's reporting on.

I personally prefer www.pollingreport.com or www.realclearpolitics.com, when used in conjunction with electoral-vote.com, since they list various and different polls. Realclearpolitics (which is right leaning) also keeps a running average of the latest polls, which is my preference. I also make a point of keeping up separately on the zogby.com polls.

MY PREFERENCE: When looking at nat'l polls, to view a group of the most recent polls, and then average their results. I think that presents a more balanced picture than any one poll alone.

MY STRONG PREFERENCE: I think polls showing just the battleground states are most important. And Bush's job approval (again, a running average of the most recent job approval ratings).

[The_Casual_Observer]

4. It is as accurate as the polls

He shows the results of the latest polls in each state. So, it is more like a graphical display of the latest poll news.

[TahitiNut]

5. Agreed.

[movonne]

6. I gave up on that website when I saw Ca. go from dark blue to

white, because of some small poll. Now we know that Ca. will not go red.

[George_S]

8. Rightwing that pretends to be Dem

[stranger_with_candy]

9. I check it every day too

it's usually giving the same or similar predictions as some other electoral predictions sites i've seen.