Bush's lead shrinking. The bounce is OVER. (link)

[MadProphetMargin]

http://electoral-vote.com/

Thank me later.

[still_one]

1. I subscribe to zogby, and I haven't seen any new battleground results

No matter what the polls say, my gut says Kerry is going to win this one

The undecideds and the 18-24 year old vote

We can't take it for granted though, and we have to have a large voter turnout

I actually predict that not only will we win, we will blow the socks off the polls, and the shrill media

[spooky3]

3. someone posted them in GD 2004.

[still_one]

6. thanks

[skooooo]

2. yeah baby yeah!

[saracat]

4. This doesn't look good.

Was it worse?

[benburch]

5. Much!

There are links to past day's pages... Have a look.

[Cats Against Frist]

7. Thank God Iowa is back in the blue

I will not let the chimp win this state. It's my personal mission.

[Brian_Expat]

8. Nooooooooo!

We're all gonna die, Bush is going to win with 99.999999% of the vote! We're doomed! DOOOOOOMED!

*beats breast and wails*

</imitation of Democrats over the last month and a half>

[yankeedem]

9. Looks good

You've got to figure * will steal Florida, but Maryland and New Jersey are rightfully ours, that leaves a pickup in Arkansas or Ohio, or just about any state and the nightmare is over!

[Lexingtonian]

10. Kinda flaky site, but you're right

Undecideds tend to break for the challenger, usually by ratios between 2-1 and 10-1 and typically 4-1 or 5-1 in Presidential elections. Of course, you have to take the Nader vote out of the Undecideds first. So even some of those states where Bush is nominally ahead or tied would fall to Kerry if the election were held today and Zogby has them right. Primarily Nevada and Florida. Not that there are a whole lot of Undecided voters left in most places.

No, I wouldn't believe that Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, or Colorado will go to Kerry. I refuse to believe Bush will win New Jersey or Maryland either. I don't believe West Virginia or Arizona are "solid Bush" states- they're 52/48 splits for him at best, nailbiter losses for him at worst.