Why is everyone using the TIme poll...

[kungfugrip]

When Rasmussen and Zogby read much closer?

[rocktivity]

1. Especially when it took them a week to admit that Kerry

got a convention bounce? Now they're making noises about the nine-point Bush bounce being the result of "flawed" and "partial" data!

:headbang:
rocknation

[goclark]

5. Are you talking

about the TIME Poll?

[tedoll78]

2. What does Rasmussen say?

I didn't hear about that one. (and when was it taken?)

[My Pet Goat]

3. because they have not published enough internals...

to properly evaluate the poll, thus making it easy for everyone from DU to Hardball to reach unsupported conclusions based on the headline number?

[richmwill]

6. Exactly

Who knows what the internals were? Maybe 65% of those polled were Republicans, maybe the question was phrased wrong... if I see 3 polls in a row with these numbers, then I'll start to get worried. Until then, this is a freak poll.

[Cobalt Violet]

4. Because it supports the Fuhrer.

:nuke:

[Infomaniac]

7. Suspicious of the poll results

I'm suspicious about the poll results too since so many people in New England take vacation this week and aren't reachable by phone and more than a million people are on the move in Florida. Who actually answered the phone? Repugs who were home watching the Really Not Compassionate Dog and Pony Show. Plus another post showed how off Time was in 2000. Time has no credibility.

[seventhson]

8. Fewer than a Thousand good Nazi citizens particpated in the Time Poll???

THAT's gotta REALLY tell a tale.


F*ck these polls.

fewer than 1000 rewspondents and THAT is some kind of representation?

That is ridiculous.


Where were these respondents any way" Greenwich Connecticut? Orange County Califoirnia?

Northern Virginia.

Asinine polls.

[rockymountaindem]

9. Why do you think?

With everything we know about the CNN people, it should be obvious.

Now CBS, on the other hand, didn't bring up any polls at all, and spent an equal amount of time showing Kerry's rally and Bush's* speech. CBS is good, CNN is kinda sloppy.

[rocktivity]

10. Not just Rasmussen and Zogby

ALL OF THEM! Look at this from www.pollingreport.com:


WHY is the Time poll so far out of whack? CNN and MSNBC made it their lead story, and the next thing you know Judy Woodruff is suggesting that the poll has "problems" (though she thought she was off the air), and MSNBC's Keith Olbermann is describing the poll as "partial." Also remember that after the Dem convention, Time/CNN where the only ones who reported that Kerry DIDN'T get a bounce, and didn't get around to it until about a week later. (Maybe that's why CNN hooked up with the Gallup this time around.)

When you disregard both the Time polls, Bush leads in only one poll more than Kerry, and his margin averages out to 2.3%. There was never a question of a Bush convention bounce, just of how big it would be. If these numbers hold throughout the first wave of post-convention polling, then Bush has accomplished nothing.

:headbang:
rocknation

[TexasSissy]

12. Only 3 of those polls are post-convention.

And all of them have Bush ahead, I'm sorry to point out. And two of them have Bush in a ten point lead. Iwasn't aware of that. Bummer.

Newsweek 9/3.... Bush 52 Kerry 41 (B+11)
Time 9/2...... Bush 52 Kerry 42 (B+10)
Zogby 9/2.... Bush 46 Kerry 43 (B+3)

Let's compare with post-DNC:
Newsweek 7/31..... Bush 44 Kerry 52 (K+8)
Time 8/5..... Bush 43 Kerry 51 (K+8)
Zogby 7/26-29.....Bush 41 Kerry 46 (K+5)

Hey, looks like they are about the same! Okay, so Bush broke the ten point barrier...THAT DOESN'T MEAN HE GOT A 10 POINT BOUNCE! It looks like he got an 8 point bounce AND Kerry dropped.

Don't let the media blow this out of proportion, though. They got carried away with Howard Dean, too, remember? They ALL thought Dean was the shoe-in for the nominee. They are apparently short-sighted and not infused with history.

[TexasSissy]

11. I'm thinking the same friggin' thing, too.

[i like pizza]

13. /

the "bounce" will only last a week