Looking Ahead: 2006 Senate Races

[displacedyankeedem]

Pickup Opportunities (in order of liklihood)

1)PENNSYLVANIA
Incumbent: Rick Santorum
Likely Opponent: State Treasurer Barbara Hafer
I've never been able to figure out how Santorum got re-elected in a presidential year when Gore won the state. Never mind that now. Every Democrat in PA wants a shot at Santorum, and they're lining up to dop it. If Joe Hoeffel wins in November it will build a great amount of momentum. Even if he doesn't Santorum is toast. Barabara Hafer, a former Republican, looks like a solid nominee, although there are many possible others (Hoeffel, Bob Casey Jr., Lt. Gov Knoll). I almost wonder if Santorum won't run again citing a possible Presidential campaign in 2008.

2)MISSOURI
Incumbent: Jim Talent
Likely Opponent: Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell or Former Gov. Roger Wilson

Talent isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer; he lost the Governors race to Bob Holden, who wasn't exactly the most popular guy around and he barely beat Jean Carnahan(another awful campaigner) in a Republican year. There are two top tier opponents waiting in the wings for the Democrats: Lt. Governor Maxwell or Former Governor Roger Wilson (who got high marks for taking over after the death of Gov. Mel Carnahan). Either should be able to (at the bare minimum), give Talent a run for his money and would stand a good shot at dethroning him.

3)VIRGINIA
Incumbent: George Allen
Likely Opponent: Gov. Mark Warner

Virginia has finally arrived as a battleground state, which is largely due to the heavy growth in Democratic friendly Northern Virginia, which helped to elect Gov. Warner to the statehouse in 2001. Warner's popular and mega-wealthy and can outspend Allen in the Old Dominion.

4)ARIZONA
Incumbent: Jon Kyl
Likely Opponent: Attorney General Terry Goddard

Barry Goldwater wouldn't get elected in today's Arizona, which has slowly changed from BRIGHT BRIGHT RED to a sort of pinkish color. Yes it's still Republican, but Democrats like Gov. Janet Napolitano are starting to win, and the wingnuts like Rick Renzi are starting to lose. Kyl is of the wingnut variety, and former Phoenix mayor and current Attorney General Terry Goddard is strategically positioned to run Kyl out of office and deliver a Democratic Senator from the Grand Canyon State.

ENDANGERED INCUMBENTS

1)MINNESOTA
Incumbent: Mark Dayton
Likely Challenger: US House Rep.Mark Kennedy

Dayton's a heck of a guy, but tends to keep a lower profile in the Senate. He's frequently lampooned by Republicans for being inarticulate, but he's improved a lot since he was first elected. Minnesota's been trending Republican over the past few cycles, but I'm starting to think that the Repubs may have finally peaked out here.

I don't see any other obvious ones on either side. Except for Hutchinson's seat in Texas or Sarbanes's in Maryland if they retire. I think demographics make Stabenaw and Cantwell's seats fairly safe.

[Hawkeye-X]

1. I wouldn't consider Dayton endangered

ESPECIALLY if Kerry brings back what America sorely needs, and then the Repugs will become even more ENDANGERED and close to extinction.

Hawkeye-X