September 11 to Mark a New Tragedy -- 1,000 US Soldiers Killed

[GiovanniC]

There have been 971 US military deaths in Iraq so far, according to this site. Now, if past trends are any indication of future behavior, we can pretty accurately predict what the casualty numbers will be a week, a month, or even a year down the road (accuracy obviously declines the further ahead we predict).

I based these numbers on three different models: one looking at casualty trends since the beginning of the war ("Overall"), one looking at casualty trends since the turnover ("Turnover"), and another looking at casualty trends just this month ("August"). By my judgement, the Turnover numbers have been the most accurate predictor of future numbers. They indicate that the 1,000th US military casualty is likely to be killed on September 11, 2004.



Now, it's possible that casualty trends will decline somewhat now that a peace deal has supposedly been brokered between al-Sistani and al-Sadr in Najaf. However, many of the recent casualties have not been from Najaf, either, so that is a factor that remains to be seen. Regardless, at this rate, it is not a question of IF 1,000 brave Americans will have died for a pointless war, but WHEN. And that WHEN appears to be coming sooner than any of us would like. Also, bear in mind that this is ONLY American military... not coalition, not civilians. Those numbers are already much higher.

As a postscript, the models indicate that by November 2 (Election Day), we'll likely have between 1,094 and 1,118 US military casualties.

Thanks for supporting those troops, George.

[GiovanniC]

1. Kick

[GiovanniC]

2. Kick Again

[GiovanniC]

3. Final Kick

For the evening crowd.

[democrat_patriot]

4. Friday afternoon KICK.