Can someone explain the "likely voters"?

[Killarney]

I'm trying to figure out which polls are more accurate--likely voters or registered voters.

On the one hand, someone might be registered but has no intention of voting.

But on the other hand, someone may say they are a likely voter but they are not a registered voter and who knows if they'll register in time, etc.

Which one is considered more accurate?

[benburch]

1. They ask.

First they ask "Are you registered"

Then they ask "Do you plan to vote"

A likely voter answers YES to both.

[cally]

2. I can't tell you how each polling firms uses the data

because they all do it differently. All base likely voters on past voting behavior. If you are someone who always votes then you are a likely voter. If you are registered but rarely vote then you are not a likely voter. I've read that the polling orgs start changing their definitions closer to the election. I think they then start asking if you are likely to go to the polls. That's why later polls are more accurate.

[beyurslf]

3. They should know if they are registered. The calling list should be

of registered voters. They can also elminate anyone who didnt vote in past elections and was registered then to help get a "likely" voter.

[Longhorn]

4. I thought "likely voters" were defined as

those who are registered to vote who also voted in the last election and maybe even going back more than one election. I know I read that somewhere but I don't know if there is a standard for all polls.

[trof]

5. I think that's closer. Based on past history.

[Kukesa]

10. This from Dem HQ in Ohio:

I asked the same question and here's the response I received from a National Campaign staff member:

"It's pretty simple. A registered voter is anyone over age 18 and who is a citizen of the United States who has registered to vote at the Board of Elections. A likely voter is a person who has a strong voter history. Someone who voted in the general, primary, special, and off-year elections. Kerry is ahead in polls that have registered voters but the gap narrows when it comes to likely voters because typically Democrats don't come out as often as Republicans do. (because they have to work, etc.)

That is why it's important to engage yourself in voter contact by making phone calls and walking your precinct. The way we narrow the gap, or also called the margin of victory, is a three prong attack: 1.) Get more of your regular base supporters out to vote this time (those who said it doesn't matter if I vote this time) 2.) Persuade those who voted for Bush, Nader, independents or those who didn't vote to vote for Kerry. 3.)Get those who are new registered voters to get out and vote for our candidate. AND THATS EXACTLY WHAT WE ARE GOING TO DO AND THAT'S EXACTLY HOW WE ARE GOING TO WIN!!!!!!"

[SheilaT]

6. Likely voters

are those who have exhibited voting behavior in the past. Which is why first time voters fly under the radar of these polls. Any candidate, in any race, who can motivate even a small percentage of those who've never voted before to do so, will gain a considerable edge.

Likely voters are disproportionately white and middle or upper middle class. They usually own their own homes.

Eligible voters (and I'm never sure if this is simply all who are registered, or all who are the correct age range, citizens, who've not had voting rights taken away) are a huge group, but a lot of them don't vote.

Get Out the Vote drives have enormous potential. But one barrier to voting is registration requirements. It's not always easy. Minnesota makes it exceptionally easy -- you can register and vote on election day itself, which is as it ought to be. Because we vote precinct by precinct, if you change your precinct shortly before an election (depending on your state) you might be up against the deadline for switching your registration.

Overall, the individuals that move shortly before an election, probably are not enough to affect any outcome. On the other hand, those who move frequently are disproportionately blue collar/working close -- exactly those who are most likely to vote Democrat.

Doing a voter registration drive and GOTV effort in apartment complexes, where those potential voters are located, can be difficult. But that's the kind of thing ACT (Americans Coming Together) is working on, as well as some other groups.

[Seabiscuit]

7. Michael Moore made it real simple:

A "likely voter", as used in the polls are those who are currently registered and who voted in the last Presidential election. Period.

He's critical of the polls because its obsession with "likely voters" ends up focusing on "swing voters" among the likely, and completely discounts the "new voters" first Dean, then the Kerry/Edwards campaign have attracted with their grass roots campaign, who should be a huge factor as compared to the "swing voters".

[BlueCollar]

8. In my opinion

"likely" voters are more accurately described as "partisan" voters in that they have usually already made up their minds and have exhibited a consistent voting pattern...

Registered voters on the other hand are I think less likely to be as "partisan" or active in their political beliefs...

Accuracy...? Likely voters over registered voters...

[snippy]

9. Every polling company determines "likely voters" differently.

Here is a brief but good explanation.

The exact methods differ from company to company and are often proprietary, but pollsters generally ask respondents about their past voting habits, their level of interest in the race, and the intensity of their allegiance to one candidate or another. The longer and more elaborate the questionnaire, the fewer likely voters the sampling is prone to yield.

Some pollsters, for example, will ask only whether the voter showed up for the last election and whether they plan on doing so again. Since many people feel slightly guilty about not voting, or want to appear more politically engaged than they really are, such polls tend to dramatically overstate the number of likely voters. Pollsters refer to this approach as a "soft screen."

Other pollsters ask their respondents to qualify their answers, instead of giving simple yes-or-no replies. A typical question in such a poll might be: "Are you very likely to vote, somewhat likely, or not likely?" The answers are then weighted in order to account for the assumption that those answering "somewhat likely" will probably vote in fewer numbers than those responding "very likely." Pollsters may also ask those surveyed to rank their likelihood of voting on a scale of one to 10.

The most thorough polls ask whether respondents know where their polling places are and how they plan to travel there on Election Day. Another tactic is to couch the questions about past voting habits in soothing language, so the respondents don't feel as if an "I didn't vote last election" reply is equivalent to confessing that they're bad Americans. A popular way to phrase the voting-history question, for example, is along the lines of: "In the last election, did something come up that prevented you from voting?"

http://slate.msn.com/id/2104727/

I have heard Frank Newport(?) from Gallup explain the process Gallup uses to dermine likely voters. They use responses to a series of seven questions to assign each poll respondent a numerical score reflecting the probability that the respondent will vote. Then all respondents are ranked from highest probability of voting to lowest. Then an estimate of turnout is used to determine the cutoff point on the probability rankings. Those respondents above the cutoff point are considered likely voters.