are the "political futures markets" biased ? I don't quite know exactly

[Bombtrack]

what they are, I mean, in a way it's self explanatory but, you know, kind of confusing.

Anyway just looking at this politicalwire.com exerpt that says :

Bush continues to hold an edge in the political futures markets, however. The Iowa Electronic Market and Intrade both give Bush a 51% chance of winning the election.

Anyone want to clue me in as to why this is so, when Kerry wins electoral college tabulations by almost every measure?

[Old and In the Way]

1. My guess......

They are based on the cynical predispositions of the investor. They appear to believe today that the election is still Bush's to steal...EC be damned. As we get closer to the election day and the polling firms up, I expect that we'll see Bush stock devalued to "0" by election day

[Julien Sorel]

2. The economy. The economy. The economy.

The Republicans haven't had their convention yet. There is a pro-Republican bias in the electoral college system. Bush is in power, and has the potential, and certainly the lack of scruples, to use that power to affect the election. The economy. I've said this maybe a dozen times here, but people are so wrapped up in their fantasy world no one wants to listen: no sitting president in history has lost with an economy performing like this one. It has never happened. Not once.

There are pro-Kerry arguments as well. But people here fixate on the pro-Kerry arguments, and act as if there is nothing whatever going for the Bush side. But there is. Those futures markets aren't perfect, but they are certainly smarter than the average voter -- and unfortunately, the average DUer.

[Bombtrack]

4. you're right. Thanks for the response

It can be almost impossible to be "conservative" about our expectations around here sometimes. I think we're going to have to win Ohio, Florida, or Missouri to win, none of which I'm overly confident about. Although since I'll be working for Florida for Kerry, it's the one I'm most passionate about.

[emulatorloo]

3. aren't the "political futures markets" like "masturbation"?

a fun fantasy of how you'd like it to be?

as an Iowan I tire of hearing how "great" the Iowa Electronic Market is. . .what is it besides a bunch of business students who wanna be in the top 1%, hoping for bush to make thier future tax cuts permanent?