ELECTION FORECAST / SIMULATION MODEL
Created by TRUTHISALL
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com
COMBINED NATIONAL/STATE MODEL
Assumes 70% of undecided/other to Kerry
……… Nat. State Comb. AvgSim Win Probability
……… Model Model Vote% EV Nat. State Comb.
Kerry: 53.08 52.73 52.90 321 97.45 97.20 97.33
Bush: 46.92 47.27 47.10 217 2.55 2.80 2.67
Spread: 6.16 5.46 5.81 104
LATEST NATIONAL POLLS, FORECAST, WIN PROBABILITY
15Poll Avg Proj. Prob.
Kerry: 48.13 53.08 97.45
Bush: 44.80 46.92 2.55
Spread: 3.33 6.16
Kerry: 97.5% probability of popular vote win.
NATIONAL VOTE/ WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Effect of various undecided/other allocation assumptions
Assume Kerry allocation of:
Alloc: 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Vote: 51.67 52.37 53.08 53.79 54.49
Prob: 85.42 93.35 97.45 99.18 99.78
STATE FORECAST SIMULATION / WIN PROBABILITY
Forecast % EV
Kerry: 52.73 321
Bush: 47.27 217
Spread: 5.46 104
Kerry: 97.2% probability of at least 270 EV.
Wins : 972 of 1000 election trials.
ELECTORAL VOTE/ WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
One thousand (1000) trials are run in each simulation.
Simulation I: Conservative Case
Assume: 60% of undecided/other to Kerry.
Kerry: 51.78% of the vote.
Wins: 89.1% of 1000 election trials.
Avg: 305 electoral votes.
Max: 404 electoral votes.
Simulation II: Most Likely Case
Assume: 70% of undecided/other to Kerry.
Kerry: 52.73% of the vote.
Wins: 97.2% of 1000 election trials.
Avg: 321 electoral votes.
Max: 440 electoral votes.
Simulation III: Optimistic Case
Assume: 80% of undecided/other to Kerry.
Kerry: 53.68% of the vote.
Wins: 99.3% of 1000 election trials.
Avg: 338 electoral votes.
Max: 425 electoral votes.
LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
(in millions of votes)
Dem 138.78 52.61%
Rep 125.03 47.39%
BUSH JOB APPROVAL
The data source is PollingReport.com
2004 Avg Nwk Fox CNN Pew Harris CBS ABC Time NBC AP Zogby
Jan. 54.50 50 58 60 56 na 50 58 54 54 56 49
Feb. 49.67 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 na 47 na
Mar. 48.75 48 48 49 46 na 51 50 na 50 48 na
Apr. 48.80 49 50 52 48 48 46 51 49 na 48 47
May 45.20 42 48 47 44 na 41 47 46 47 48 42
June 47.00 na 48 49 48 50 42 47 na 45 48 46
July 48.00 48 47 47 46 na 45 50 50 48 50 49
Aug 45.33 45 44 48 na na 44 47 na na na 44
NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE TREND
Based on latest national polls from:
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME
Data source: PollingReport.com
Kerry projection is the current average of these polls
plus 70% of undecided/other voters.
Avg Poll Trend Projection
2004 Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
Jan 44.0 49.4 -5.4 46.4 53.6 -7.1
Feb 48.0 45.4 2.6 52.6 47.4 5.2
Mar 48.6 44.0 4.6 53.8 46.2 7.5
Apr 47.4 44.9 2.5 52.8 47.2 5.6
May 47.8 44.0 3.8 53.5 46.5 7.1
June 47.1 44.7 2.4 52.8 47.2 5.7
July 48.1 45.0 3.1 52.9 47.1 5.9
Aug 49.6 44.0 5.6 54.1 45.9 8.2
KERRY NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE FORECAST/WIN PROBABILITIES
Uses latest national poll (15) data
Avg 48.13% Latest 15 poll average (mean)
+Alloc. 4.95% + 70% undecided/other
= Proj. 53.08% = Projected Kerry %
Prob: 97.45% > 50% of popular vote
------- Date Kerry% Kerry% undecided/other
------- (mdd) Kerry Bush vs.Bush 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
TIME 722 50 45 52.6 52.5 53.0 53.5 54.0 54.5
FOX 804 46 42 52.3 52.0 53.2 54.4 55.6 56.8
CNN/GAL 801 48 48 50.0 50.0 50.4 50.8 51.2 51.6
LAT 721 48 46 51.1 51.0 51.6 52.2 52.8 53.4
PEW 718 46 44 51.1 51.0 52.0 53.0 54.0 55.0
IBD 724 46 43 51.7 51.5 52.6 53.7 54.8 55.9
CBS 730 49 43 53.3 53.0 53.8 54.6 55.4 56.2
DEMC 713 52 45 53.6 53.5 53.8 54.1 54.4 54.7
ABC/WP 802 52 45 53.6 53.5 53.8 54.1 54.4 54.7
NWK 730 52 44 54.2 54.0 54.4 54.8 55.2 55.6
ZOGBY 729 48 43 52.7 52.5 53.4 54.3 55.2 56.1
AP 707 45 49 47.9 48.0 48.6 49.2 49.8 50.4
NBC/WSJ 721 45 47 48.9 49.0 49.8 50.6 51.4 52.2
ARG 801 49 45 52.1 52.0 52.6 53.2 53.8 54.4
QPAC 722 46 43 51.7 51.5 52.6 53.7 54.8 55.9
Mean ______ 48.13 44.80 51.79 51.67 52.37 53.08 53.79 54.49
Prob>x ______ ______ ______ 87.18 85.42 93.35 97.45 99.18 99.78
Std ______ 2.50 2.01 1.78 1.69 1.65 1.66 1.73 1.85
StdP ______ 1.58 1.57 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.57
95% Confidence Interval
Max ______ 51.23 47.88 54.89 54.76 55.47 56.17 56.88 57.58
Min ______ 45.04 41.72 48.70 48.57 49.28 49.99 50.70 51.41
x ______ 47.88 47.88 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
Prob>x ______ 56.31 2.50 87.18 85.42 93.35 97.45 99.18 99.78
99% Confidence Interval
Max ______ 52.21 48.86 55.87
Min ______ 44.06 40.74 47.72
x ______ 48.86 48.86 50.00
Prob>x ______ 32.34 0.49 87.18
Notes:
Std = Standard Deviation (variability) of polls
StdP = Sqrt((1-p)*p/1000), where 1000 is average poll sample
size
95% Confidence Limits:
Max = Mean + 1.96 * StdP
Min = Mean - 1.96 * StdP
99% Confidence Limits:
Max = Mean + 2.58 * StdP
Min = Mean - 2.58 * StdP
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY
Kerry National and State Vote Projections
State vote%: Latest state poll plus assumed share of
undecided/other voters.
National vote%:Weighted sum of projected % state
votes.
Probability of a state win is based on projected %
vote.
Most Likely Case
Assume 70% of undecided/other voters for Kerry
Win Prob. Pct EV
Kerry 97.2% 52.7% 321
Bush 2.8% 47.3% 217
Historical Vote %, Kerry Projection and Win Probability
Dem Hist. is Democratic share of 2-party vote in last three
presidential elections.
------- Dem Kerry Kerry EV simulation trials 1-10 of
1000
------- Hist. Proj. Prob. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
State 52.60% 52.73% 97.2% 308 365 317 304 261 329 286 343 363 324
AL 44.8 41.0 1.2
AK 37.6 40.7 1.0
AZ 48.8 49.9 49.0 10 10 10 10 10 10
AR 55.2 50.2 52.0 6 6 6 6 6 6
CA 57.4 58.1 97.9 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
CO 48.8 49.3 43.1 9 9 9
CT 57.7 62.6 99.9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
DE 56.8 57.1 96.2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
DC 90.3 89.5 100.0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
FL 50.7 50.5 55.0 27 27 27 27 27
GA 47.6 45.9 15.3 15 15 15
HI 59.0 60.9 99.7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
ID 35.7 39.0 0.3
IL 57.9 58.9 98.7 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
IN 44.8 45.9 15.3 11 11
IA 51.8 52.2 70.9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
KS 42.4 41.6 1.8
KY 46.7 46.2 17.1 8 8
LA 49.2 44.4 8.1
ME 57.1 52.3 71.7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
MD 57.8 58.6 98.4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MA 65.3 65.8 100.0 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
MI 54.7 56.9 95.8 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
MN 55.7 52.6 74.2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MS 44.3 36.3 0.0
MO 52.5 51.1 60.8 11 11 11 11 11 11
MT 44.9 42.8 3.6
NE 37.5 36.5 0.0
NV 49.9 51.3 62.7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NH 51.7 55.9 93.0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
NJ 56.5 59.5 99.1 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
NM 53.0 51.1 60.8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NY 62.6 65.0 100.0 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
NC 46.6 47.5 26.6 15 15 15
ND 40.8 37.2 0.1
OH 50.8 48.9 39.2 20 20 20 20
OK 42.8 39.2 0.3
OR 53.6 52.8 75.8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
PA 54.2 57.2 96.4 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
RI 65.6 67.2 100.0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SC 44.4 47.5 26.6 8 8 8 8
SD 44.5 44.8 9.7
TN 50.5 50.2 52.0 11 11 11 11
TX 44.3 42.6 3.2
UT 33.6 29.7 0.0
VT 59.4 60.1 99.4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VA 47.3 49.9 49.0 13 13 13 13 13 13
WA 55.9 53.8 82.9 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
WV 54.0 53.6 81.6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
WI 52.7 51.9 68.3 10 10 10 10 10
WY 38.3 30.8 0.0
Avg 52.60% 52.73% 97.2% 308 365 317 304 261 329 286 343 363 324