TIA Election Polling Analysis: Take a peek, Geek

[TruthIsAll]

	TIA ELECTION FORECAST MODEL			

	LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS			
	Total Votes (millions)                         			
	Dem: 138.75 (52.60%)                            			
	Rep: 125.03 (47.4%)                             			

	STATE POLLS			
	 http://www.electoral-vote.com                         		
	ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION SUMMARY			
	Kerry	52.91%	330 EV
	Bush	47.09%	208 EV
	Kerry wins	98 of 100 trial runs									

	10 NATIONAL POLLS									
	......Current Projected
	Kerry	49.57	53.87									
	Bush	44.29	46.13									
												
	Note: FOX,CNN/Gallup. AP polls are not included,											
	Undec/other alloc Kerry:	70.0%									

												
	BUSH JOB APPROVAL RATINGS											
	http://www.pollingreport.com    											
												
 Avg 	2004	Nwk	Fox	CNN	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby
 54.50 	Jan	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49
 49.67 	Feb	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na
 48.75 	Mar	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na
 48.80 	April	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47
 45.20 	May	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42
 47.00 	June	na	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46
 47.80 	July	48	na	47	na	na	na	na	na	45	50	49
												
												


	NATIONAL POLLING TREND											
	http://www.pollingreport.com    											
		Actual Polling Data    Projected							
		Kerry	Bush 	Spread	Kerry	Bush 	Spread					
	Jan 	42.50	50.17	-8.33	47.43	52.57	-5.13					
	Feb	48.00	45.43	2.57	52.60	47.40	5.20					
	Mar	47.50	44.75	2.75	52.93	47.08	5.85
	Apr	47.38	44.88	2.50	52.80	47.20	5.60
	May	47.11	44.22	2.89	53.18	46.82	6.36
	June	47.13	45.00	2.13	52.64	47.36	5.28
	July	49.57	44.29	5.29	53.87	46.13	7.74


	IBD						
	Feb	44	41	3	54.5	45.5	9
	Mar	45	43	2	53.4	46.6	6.8
	Apr	40	44	-4	51.2	48.8	2.4
	May	43	42	1	53.5	46.5	7
	June	43	44	-1	52.1	47.9	4.2
	July	49	44	5	53.9	46.1	7.8


	ABC						
	Feb	52	43	9	55.5	44.5	11
	Mar	53	44	9	55.1	44.9	10.2
	Apr	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2
	May	49	47	2	51.8	48.2	3.6
	June	53	45	8	54.4	45.6	8.8



	AP						
	Jan 	37	54	-17	43.3	56.7	-13.4
	Mar	45	46	-1	51.3	48.7	2.6
	Apr	44	45	-1	51.7	48.3	3.4
	May	43	46	-3	50.7	49.3	1.4
	July	45	49	-4	49.2	50.8	-1.6


	NWK						
	Jan 	41	52	-11	45.9	54.1	-8.2
	Feb	50	45	5	53.5	46.5	7
	Mar	48	45	3	52.9	47.1	5.8
	Apr	50	43	7	54.9	45.1	9.8
	May	46	45	1	52.3	47.7	4.6
	July	51	45	6	53.8	46.2	7.6


	ARG						
	Jan 	47	46	1	51.9	48.1	3.8
	Feb	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4
	Mar	50	43	7	54.9	45.1	9.8
	Apr	50	44	6	54.2	45.8	8.4
	May	47	44	3	53.3	46.7	6.6
	June	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4
	July	49	45	4	53.2	46.8	6.4


	NBC						
	Jan 	35	54	-19	42.7	57.3	-14.6
	Feb						
	Mar	45	47	-2	50.6	49.4	1.2
	Apr						
	May	42	46	-4	50.4	49.6	0.8
	June	47	47	0	51.2	48.8	2.4
	July	54	43	11	56.1	43.9	12.2


	FOX						
	Jan 	32	54	-22	41.8	58.2	-16.4
	Feb	43	47	-4	50	50	0
	Mar	44	44	0	52.4	47.6	4.8
	Apr	42	43	-1	52.5	47.5	5
	May	42	42	0	53.2	46.8	6.4
	June	42	48	-6	49	51	-2
					

	CBS						
	Jan 	48	43	5	54.3	45.7	8.6
	Feb	47	46	1	51.9	48.1	3.8
	Mar	43	46	-3	50.7	49.3	1.4
	Apr	48	43	5	54.3	45.7	8.6
	May	49	41	8	56	44	12
	June	45	44	1	52.7	47.3	5.4
	July	49	44	5	53.9	46.1	7.8


	CNN/Gallup						
	Jan 	43	55	-12	44.4	55.6	-11.2
	Feb	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2
	Mar	52	44	8	54.8	45.2	9.6
	Apr	46	51	-5	48.1	51.9	-3.8
	May	49	47	2	51.8	48.2	3.6
	June	48	49	-1	50.1	49.9	0.2
	July	50	46	4	52.8	47.2	5.6


	PEW						
	Jan 	41	52	-11	45.9	54.1	-8.2
	Feb	47	47	0	51.2	48.8	2.4
	Mar	48	44	4	53.6	46.4	7.2
	Apr	47	46	1	51.9	48.1	3.8
	May	50	45	5	53.5	46.5	7
	June	46	48	-2	50.2	49.8	0.4


	LA Times						
	Apr	49	46	3	52.5	47.5	5
	June	51	44	7	54.5	45.5	9



	ZOGBY						
	Mar	48	46	2	52.2	47.8	4.4
	Apr	47	44	3	53.3	46.7	6.6
	May	47	42	5	54.7	45.3	9.4
	June	44	42	2	53.8	46.2	7.6
	July	46	44	2	53	47	6


	TIME						
	Jan	43	54	-11	45.1	54.9	-9.8
	Feb	48	50	-2	49.4	50.6	-1.2
	May	51	46	5	53.1	46.9	6.2
	July	49	45	4	53.2	46.8	6.4
	…………………………………………………………………………………………………….						

	KERRY % VS. TOTAL DEM/REP % IN LAST 3 ELECTIONS 						
		Elec.	Dem.%	Projected   Probability	
		Votes	Last3	Kerry% Diff Kerry win %	
	AL	9	44.8	45.0	0.2	1.0
	AK	3	37.6	40.7	3.1	0.1
	AZ	10	48.8	47.6	-1.2	22.1
	AR	6	55.2	50.6	-4.6	55.8
	CA	55	57.4	57.2	-0.2	99.0
	CO	9	48.8	49.3	0.5	41.4
	CT	7	57.7	62.6	4.9	99.0
	DE	3	56.8	57.1	0.3	99.0
	DC	3	90.3	90.4	0.1	99.0
	FL	27	50.7	53.3	2.6	88.4
	GA	15	47.6	45.9	-1.7	1.0
	HI	4	59.0	60.9	1.9	99.0
	ID	4	35.7	39.0	3.3	0.1
	IL	21	57.9	60.0	2.1	99.0
	IN	11	44.8	44.4	-0.4	0.1
	IA	7	51.8	51.5	-0.3	67.3
	KS	6	42.4	41.6	-0.8	0.1
	KY	8	46.7	45.3	-1.4	1.0
	LA	9	49.2	49.0	-0.2	37.5
	ME	4	57.1	52.3	-4.8	76.9
	MD	10	57.8	58.6	0.8	99.0
	MA	12	65.3	66.3	1.0	99.0
	MI	17	54.7	54.2	-0.5	97.5
	MN	10	55.7	53.9	-1.8	95.0
	MS	6	44.3	36.3	-8.0	0.1
	MO	11	52.5	52.1	-0.4	75.0
	MT	3	44.9	42.8	-2.1	0.1
	NE	5	37.5	36.5	-1.0	0.1
	NV	5	49.9	51.4	1.5	65.4
	NH	4	51.7	56.7	5.0	99.0
	NJ	15	56.5	56.6	0.1	99.0
	NM	5	53.0	55.3	2.3	99.0
	NY	31	62.6	66.4	3.8	99.0
	NC	15	46.6	49.9	3.3	48.5
	ND	3	40.8	37.2	-3.6	0.1
	OH	20	50.8	51.1	0.3	61.5
	OK	7	42.8	35.2	-7.6	0.1
	OR	7	53.6	56.2	2.6	99.0
	PA	21	54.2	54.1	-0.1	97.5
	RI	4	65.6	64.2	-1.4	99.0
	SC	8	44.4	47.5	3.1	20.2
	SD	3	44.5	44.8	0.3	0.1
	TN	11	50.5	50.8	0.3	57.7
	TX	34	44.3	42.6	-1.7	0.1
	UT	5	33.6	29.7	-3.9	0.1
	VT	3	59.4	60.1	0.7	99.0
	VA	13	47.3	48.5	1.2	31.7
	WA	11	55.9	55.1	-0.8	99.0
	WV*	5	54.0	47.2	-6.8	16.4
	WI	10	52.7	55.1	2.4	99.0
	WY	3	38.3	30.8	-7.5	0.1
						

[geek tragedy]

1. The only thing better than crunching numbers is

crunching Republicans. :headbang: :yourock:

[AndyTiedye]

2. These Polls All Assume Nader Goes Away

Nader isn't going away, he's sucking down 3-6% of the vote,
nearly all of it from Kerry.

[porphyrian]

3. Stop Worrying So Much About Nader

He's not a threat to anything in this election except certain peoples' egos. This is going to be a sweep, as long as all the votes are counted correctly.

[mermaid]

5. I Wish I Could Believe That

Fact is, Nader The Traitor has me scared silly! I'm deathly afraid that bastard is gonna cost us another election!!

There was a time, once, long ago...I had respect for Ralph Nader. Now I can only despise him!

He is Nader The Traitor in my book now, and I hope the nickname catches on and stixks to him. He's a true bastard if he won't get outta the damn race!

[AndyTiedye]

8. Getting the Votes Counted Correctly *IS* The Problem!

Nader still makes it close enough to steal, and makes that theft
a lot easier, because they can then divert votes from Kerry to Nader
in lefty areas where a high vote for Bush* would be suspicious.
There don't have to be any actual Nader voters for this, just a
line on the ballot.

To make matters worse, Nader still polls 3-7%, cutting Kerry's
margin in half in every state where he leads, and keeping him
within the MOE.

It isn't that Nader will cause Bush* to win the election --
he didn't win the last one -- Our concern is that he will make
the theft of this election possible, just as he did in 2000.

I'll stop worrying about Nader when Kerry is up 20 points in the polls.

[TrogL]

4. Note: FOX,CNN/Gallup. AP polls are not included,

Why not?

Isn't leaving them out biased?

[TruthIsAll]

6. No, I leave them out because they are BIASED for Bush.

Why include them if they skew the averages against Kerry?

These organizations are notoriously pro Bush. They constantly prop him up and thrash the Democrat, whether it was Gore in 2000 or Kerry today.

Taking them out of the averages can only improve the forecast.

[mrboba1]

7. God !

I love your forecasts!!!